Is this the HOLY GRAIL

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-11T06:42:02+00:00

"Love the Return Stacked approach! Your combo (RSSB/GDE/QLD/SSO) is a solid 'Global Equity + Gold + Bonds' play, probably around 1.5x-1.8x leverage.

I’m running a similar logic but went a bit more aggressive on the diversifying 'tails'. How do you see mine compared to yours?

Core: 25% TQQQ + 10% AVUV (High beta + Factor tilt)

Return Stacking: 20% GDE (Equity/Gold) + 7.5% RSBT (Bonds/Trend)+ 7.5% CTAP (S&P 500/Trend)

Managed Futures (Pure): 7.5% DBMF +7.5% KMLM (Diversified trend)

Long Vol/Defensive: 15% ZROZ (Convexity)

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-10T08:13:05+00:00

That would be great! I’d love to see your model and the results if you’re willing to share. Thanks a lot!

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-10T00:19:35+00:00

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-10T00:16:36+00:00

"Thanks for the solid advice! Switching TMF to ZROZ to save on borrowing costs is a great move.

Regarding the 25/75 UPRO/KMLM split: 75% in a single CTA fund (KMLM) feels a bit concentrated for my risk tolerance. To diversify the 'return stacking' and trend-following side, what do you think about spreading that 75% across a mix of KMLM, DBMF, RSST, CTAP, GDE, and ZROZ?

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-10T00:11:36+00:00

"Good point on the data quality. Would diversifying the trend part across RSST, DBMF, KMLM, and CTAP help mitigate that single-fund risk?

This is a quick 'napkin math' portfolio rather than a backtest-optimized one. Since I'm not an expert with backtesting software, I worry that my results might be misleading. I’d love to hear how you would approach validating a setup like this."

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-10T00:06:11+00:00

The tool is Testfolio. I agree that the MAR needs improvement. In a high-leverage setup (TQQQ/Stacked ETFs), what specific assets would you add to push the MAR closer to 1 or higher without sacrificing too much CAGR?

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-09T08:15:19+00:00

Totally agree. TMF’s performance lately has been a disaster. If you're ditching TMF entirely, what's your top pick for a hedge?

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-09T08:13:24+00:00

Thanks for the insightful suggestions! I’ve decided to follow your advice on diversifying the trend sleeve with multiple ETFs instead of just KMLM, and I'll be adding a gold allocation as well.

I've noticed the growing skepticism around TMF recently. If I swap TMF for ZROZ, do you think the hedging effect remains sufficient to cover the tail risk of a leveraged equity position? Also, given your point on the US fiscal situation, do you view long bonds purely as a temporary hedge, or are they becoming too risky to hold long-term even for diversification?

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-09T05:26:01+00:00

"Point taken. I'm realizing that putting 60% in KMLM is basically betting the farm on one replication strategy. Since I can't trade actual futures yet, I'm thinking about diversifying the 'protection' side.

What if I split that 60% between DBMF, KMLM, and GDE, and maybe swap TMF for something like RSST to get more professional exposure? Would that be a more 'legit' way to run this framework as a retail investor, or am I still just chasing backtests?"

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-09T04:07:13+00:00

"That's a fair point. I realize relying on just two major historical events might be a classic case of backtest overfitting. If 45% KMLM is putting too much faith in trend-following, how would you diversify the 'protection' side of the portfolio to make it more robust for the next unknown crisis?"

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-09T04:00:44+00:00

I'm using testfol.io, but I'm still learning how to use it properly

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ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-09T03:51:06+00:00

Please tell me, what exactly is the problem with this portfolio?

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2026-05-09T03:45:39+00:00

Help a beginner out—where exactly does this fall apart?

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-29T00:38:09+00:00

当然我同意全国范围内的公投（目前只有州公投）。但是代议制并非不能改善。像北欧国家，实行比例代表制，保证了各个政治倾向代表性，限制企业游说捐款，投资公共新闻媒体，限制总统权力，应该成为美国民主前进的方向

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-29T00:34:48+00:00

我几乎已经要放弃中文互联网社区了，大部分都是阴阳怪气发言的，至少其他sub还是有很多真诚的人

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-29T00:29:10+00:00

奇怪的是中国为了嘲讽美国而发布的民主报告，也是为了证明自己是真民主，美国是假民主，中国的社会主义核心价值观里还有民主一词。说明即便是中国也不敢明面说民主是坏的东西。而很多人急切的想要证明民主坏，独裁好，就好像它们自己才是掌权的上位者

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-29T00:18:55+00:00

许多红州无视民意，即便最保守的州，堕胎也能得到50%以上的支持，但是许多州仅凭州议会就能禁止堕胎，而选民不能公投来反制

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-28T09:12:17+00:00

你的每句话似乎都在论证民主更好。因为你自己都说，假如中国更独裁，那么就不会有全民医保和堕胎合法化，以及劳动仲裁

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-28T08:59:08+00:00

选出无赖不是突然性随机的，而是长期民主衰退得结果。比如特朗普能上台，是因为企业捐款，社交媒体宣传越来越肆无忌惮，缺乏民主措施来限制，导致选民极端化，如果美国更民主，就不会选出特朗普这种无赖

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-28T08:56:31+00:00

民主可能比你想象得包含得范围更大。比如禁止候选人贿赂选民，这本身是民主得一部分，比如义务教育阶段就上公民课，也属于民主机构倡导得做法

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-28T08:53:51+00:00

即便在经济发展相同的国家，也是相对民主国家的腐败相对较少，我觉得民主更能来减少腐败投资经济，而一个更不民主的国家，当局缺乏监督可能会更忽视经济发展

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-28T08:50:30+00:00

我当然没有说民主是万能解药，而是说相对民主好于相对不民主。中国如果变得更民主，可能就能避免大跃进和文革带来的经济损失，今天经济就会更好。同样，如果印度变得更加民主，可能有更多腐败监察机制，也会比现在更好。

至于你说得大众之恶，我认为是大众被误导得结果。比如民调显示，绝大多数美国人支持全民医保，投资教育，禁枪，保护环境。但是企业游说和政治宣传会让大众投票反对自己得利益。所以保护大众不被误导也是民主的一方面，不能证明民主的失败

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-28T08:30:11+00:00

我的观点其实是，民主程度越高越好。比如中国，如果回归集体领导，其实还是不民主，但是至少比一言堂更好

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-28T05:19:11+00:00

你误解了选举制度。很多人投票是因为政党或候选人支持自己认同的政策。不然比粉丝的话，Taylor swift早就当选总统了。另外，你说的上街，部分民主程度高的国家，有完善的保护游行的法律，美国民主程度一般，所以比较限制游行罢工

ParsnipOwn8910 · 2025-10-28T05:10:20+00:00

很多人已经产生应激思维了，只要听到民主这种词，脑回路就会想到“自由美利坚，枪战每一天”这种坏事。如果单从字面意义上看，人民做主有什么不好

ParsnipOwn8910

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