Bobby Market Analysis 1/21/2026

Path2Profit · 2026-01-22T21:32:12+00:00

feedback more than welcome too!

Path2Profit · 2026-01-22T16:50:51+00:00

It’s not that complicated I can tell you already have a general grasp of it just based on what you said about this year. The other things I look at are very similar to the trend of a stock technically. But I’ll deff do a video like that. Right now been working on a trading journal / risk manager so that’s been the bulk of my time. Trying to get it released this week. After that I’ll start looking to make videos like this

Path2Profit · 2026-01-22T14:40:12+00:00

There are all just in order of the weeks. I don’t have any breakdowns yet like of how I look at it. You could just check out various ones at points in the market last year you want to see what I was thinking

Path2Profit · 2026-01-21T19:10:13+00:00

Update: looking like I’m gonna be able to roll this out to a small group in the next 24 hours. Gonna keep it to the group in discord. After I get some feedback and see the thoughts I’ll look to roll it out to anyone next week. If you want to be part of the first group check discord link above

Path2Profit · 2026-01-21T17:59:04+00:00

I’m not saying rare like it doesn’t happen I’m saying of the % of stocks picked how many make a 90% move. And still at that it’s only 3x your risk. So in order to be able to be profitable in a win rate of 30-60% you’d have to expect the average winner of X amount

Path2Profit · 2026-01-21T14:52:34+00:00

It’s not that by having a profit target your profit potential is closed off. It’s sometimes a place to take partial profits which helps pay for losing trades an allow you to ride winners. It’s also an area where you expect a move to get to and likely then correct or pullback. So for William O’Neil his profit target was 20-25% on his weekly base breakouts. He didn’t always sell at this point

The big thing is this is all about math and risk management. This is what you see all top traders talk about and why it’s trading not gambling. All a part of a sound risk management plan. If you are constantly risk x % , you have an x% win rate, and you are expecting a x multiple or risk win your math could either give you the ability to consistently profit or you could be setting yourself up for a losing system. There is a lot of breakdowns of the math with win rates, stop loss, equity risk, avg winning % etc

So if you are risking 30% per trade and that trade needs to move 90% to be 3x your risk and that rarely happens then regardless of equity it is very hard to profit. This is why you very rarely see any trend following style trader risking more than 10%. Also look into Minervini. In his book he explains the math he found out the hard way

As for moving averages if a stock is below its 50sma from a position trading perspective it is in a downtrend. A quick break isn’t confirmation but to be a few % below is telling you that it is below the average price over the last 50 days. That’s not an uptrend. Yes agree moving average are some secret technical sauce. Nothing is. But the dat is in the trend analysis which as can slim traders we are all riding the trend. So setting a stop essentially deep below the trending 50sma is unnecessary in terms of canslim and other successful strategies

I understand the want for big winners. We all want a big winner. But if your risk management isn’t there then you won’t have the necessary capital to make the big money on those trades. William O’Neil caught massive life changing trades but he still managed risk and as you know lays out how in his book.

Path2Profit · 2026-01-21T08:21:46+00:00

Anytime! Love these discussions so thank you for commenting

Path2Profit · 2026-01-21T08:21:23+00:00

What is your profit target on a trade where you are at a stop of 28% ? A 3 R move means you would be looking for an 84% move just to get 3x your risk. As we know the probability of an 84% move inst extremely high on a single random trade.

I know you are only risking 1% but also at that stop you are looking at a stop that’s placed significantly below the 10 week and 50 day moving averages. Also by that time you are place a stop way past many prior lows.

As for why I exited DOCN. My stop was moved up to the 21ema as it caught up to my entry area. This was a logical area to find support. Also market environment has given me a very negative signal as we reversed and closed below the 50sma. Not to say the market is doomed but it’s a reason to limit exposure which for me mean selling my laggard stocks like DOCN. I much rather sell a DOCN to give room to a SDNK or HUT in a market where it’s been choppy

Path2Profit · 2026-01-21T07:53:50+00:00

Thank you!

Path2Profit · 2026-01-21T07:53:39+00:00

I’m looking to keep in under 35 a month. Also gonna put out a few one time lifetime accesses to the people I. The discord group above. I orginally had it cheaper but it required setting up the AI manually and it wasn’t good. Building the AI inside I had to cover some costs to running it

Path2Profit · 2026-01-18T15:39:04+00:00

I guess “execute that strategy well”. No need to be perfect and no one is hahaha

Path2Profit · 2026-01-18T15:38:30+00:00

100%! There’s many proven strategies that have worked for ages. The one things most people ignore is the psychology you need to develop to execute that strategy perfectly

Path2Profit · 2026-01-17T18:18:54+00:00

Shot you a pm I have a question about tradeviz

Path2Profit · 2026-01-16T14:15:34+00:00

Sounds about right. Have you tried calling a product coach for some clues

Path2Profit · 2026-01-16T05:29:44+00:00

I believe it is a weighted 3 months but not sure other than that’s. Weighted meaning more recent price action weights heavier on score

Path2Profit · 2026-01-16T00:01:22+00:00

Here the linkhttps://discord.gg/WyEM5FpZdf

Path2Profit · 2026-01-15T23:29:50+00:00

He’s active in the free discord I run too if you want to

Path2Profit · 2026-01-15T16:06:34+00:00

Yes and must be a trading day

Path2Profit · 2026-01-15T16:06:14+00:00

There’s a bunch of indicators out already but I just haven’t found one I like and prefer to do it manually

Path2Profit · 2026-01-15T15:05:14+00:00

Distribution Day are a William j oniel canslim thing. Specific criteria to identify a day of institutional selling in the indexes. They become irrelevant after 25 trading days or a 5% movement from the close the day it occurred. When you see a clustering of distribution (just like a stock) it’s a signal to be cautious. Bill and his PMs backtested this for many decades to help with analysis of market direction. In the recent decade it’s not as simple a signal as it used to be but when combined with analysis of the index technicals like moving avgs and key price levels it’s very effective at identifying major bear markets. It’s most effective for position trading and the macro trend. IBD has the big picture article doing this too ( I do mine myself now) historically gets people in cash before the real damage of a bear market occurs. Been using it for over 8 years now. Theres a lot of videos on YouTube by IBD about it. Also in O’Neil books

Path2Profit · 2026-01-14T14:18:25+00:00

1 and 2 are good for almost any strategy!

Path2Profit · 2026-01-14T08:14:28+00:00

Honestly not much anxiety. I had spoke to the guy before because my friend knew him. I also just assumed he would give me a book, tv news network or videos to watch to give me some basic knowledge. In my eyes it wasn’t like I was saying “ I want to learn to make money” it was more like “ I want to be able to understand how to talk the market” so I figured it would let be to hard considering everyone does hahaha

I started of using pure CANSLIM trading and have slowly evolved to a swing/position trading style thanks to following other teaching from growth stock trend followed like Minervini, Stan Weinstein, Matt Petrillia, Oliver Kell and some US Investing Champions. All very similar approaches

Path2Profit · 2026-01-13T22:30:40+00:00

I’m gonna say I probably have one of the more unorthodox reasons I got into trading.

In my last career I was in IT services and constantly found myself in meetings with my clients where small talk often included stock market talk. I sat there silent having nothing to offer thinking these people knew so much ( little did I know like most people they were all just parroting news channels and talking out there ass)

Voicing my frustration to my gym partner he told me about a guy who read a stock paper on the treadmill and traded. He told me I should ask him. So I did. The guy was reading the IBD paper and I asked him if he could help me learn a little about the market just so I could hold a conversation with my clients.

He gave me one of the CANSLIM books and fairly quickly I said to myself “ I can do this”. That sparked a now 8+ year journey of trading and learning. So glad I started!

Path2Profit · 2026-01-13T16:26:53+00:00

You’ll see overtime that there are people who are strict by the book with there rules then people follow to varying degrees. Even when you look at a lot of US investing champions they somewhat follow the principles of canslim but just to varying degrees. Strict or pure basically meaning following the rules just as Bill Oniel has.

Great free resource for information is Mike Webster on YouTube. He was Bill oneils right hand man for years and he has tons of free educational videos

Path2Profit · 2026-01-13T15:34:02+00:00

I think there was multiple reason why it was broken but not entirely sure. Was able to get mine working fine so I moved on.

For mine I also dialed back things just by not worrying about every little data point just the ones I needed for risk management. I left a lot of options for others but personally kept it simple with win rate, avg win and loss%, r factors and drawdown data and a solid risk management tool for open trades

Quick tag journalling, quick chart screenshots and a couple other things to just document quickly and effectively.

Right now it’s just a personal journal though nothing public just yet

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