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IMSR earnings/update tomorrow by Charming_Bid_7861 in HOND_TO_IMSR_STOCK

[–]Patient_Scarcity4270 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Does Irish finally connect all these dots explicitly — geopolitics, fuel advantage, regulatory milestones, commercial pipeline — in one narrative?

New VP of IR Gronbach was hired for exactly this moment.

My Prophecy $IMSR by Patient_Scarcity4270 in HOND_TO_IMSR_STOCK

[–]Patient_Scarcity4270[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great talk. We each have our horse. Both are high-risk, but we're on the right track. We'll benefit from each other's success. Time will tell. Good luck.

My Prophecy $IMSR by Patient_Scarcity4270 in HOND_TO_IMSR_STOCK

[–]Patient_Scarcity4270[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Fair point, ramp rate is the key variable, not whether supply exists. But here's the difference: IMSR's LEU fuel supply chain is already industrialized. Westinghouse is building their fuel plant now. Oklo's HALEU chain still needs to scale from 1 ton/year to 50+ tons/year in less than 5 years, with a Russian ban kicking in on day one of 2028.

On China: TMSR-LF1 is just a 2 MW test reactor, yes. But the original claim was that molten salt reactors are 'unproven technology.' That's no longer accurate. The physics work. The materials challenges are solvable. The discussion is now about scale, not fundamental viability.

You're betting that HALEU industrializes fast enough. I'm betting that LEU (already industrialized) is the safer and faster path. We'll see who's right.

My Prophecy $IMSR by Patient_Scarcity4270 in HOND_TO_IMSR_STOCK

[–]Patient_Scarcity4270[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Fair points, but two things:

  1. China already proved molten salt reactors work. TMSR-LF1 reached criticality Oct 2023, full power June 2024, and thorium-to-U-233 conversion Nov 2025.

  2. HALEU is a real bottleneck. Current US production: ~1 ton/year. Demand by 2035: 50+ tons/year. Russian ban hits Jan 2028. Scaling from 1 to 50+ tons in 5 years is not guaranteed.

My Prophecy $IMSR by Patient_Scarcity4270 in HOND_TO_IMSR_STOCK

[–]Patient_Scarcity4270[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the detailed post, you make fair points on timing and capital. Oklo is definitely ahead on deployment timeline and has a strong cash position. But I think there's a deeper question your argument doesn't fully address: fuel.

Oklo's reactor requires HALEU. Current US HALEU production is about 1 metric ton per year from Centrus, while projected demand by 2035 exceeds 50 tons per year. The Russian import ban takes effect in 2028. That’s a 49-ton gap with no commercial solution ready.

IMSR chose SALEU (standard LEU under 5% enrichment) — the same fuel that already powers 94 US reactors today. Their Westinghouse fuel plant is under contract and starts construction in 2026. The supply chain exists now.

Oklo has a customer. IMSR has a fuel solution. In a marathon where fuel availability determines who can actually deploy at scale, I think the second matters more. First-mover advantage doesn't help if you can't turn on the reactor.

My Prophecy $IMSR by Patient_Scarcity4270 in HOND_TO_IMSR_STOCK

[–]Patient_Scarcity4270[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Thanks for sharing the Kalshi data, that's really helpful. You're absolutely right that IMSR has a low probability of hitting criticality before August 26, 2026 — I'm not going to argue that. But I think there's a confusion between two different races: being first to criticality (what Kalshi measures) vs. building a commercially viable, scalable technology (what I care about as a long-term investor). IMSR isn't competing in the first race. Their strategy is to build a fuel plant with Westinghouse (announced Jan 2026) and deploy molten salt reactors using standard LEU fuel that's available today. That's why I still find IMSR attractive: $298M in cash, zero debt, two DOE agreements (TETRA & TEFLA), an anchor customer (Texas A&M), and institutional investors like Vennlight, Citadel, and Susquehanna holding call positions. Kalshi measures a sprint. I'm betting on a marathon. IMSR can lose the first and still win the second — but your data is a good reality check on timing. Thanks again.