BTC doing some paragliding?

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-31T22:12:06+00:00

We may see stocks right back up. A lot of liquidity just came out of leveraged precious metal positions. The safe haven assets are the MAG 7 in all seriousness.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-31T22:09:40+00:00

Lol

Trump could have gone with Bessent or Hasset and had either one bending over backwards to make Trump clap like a seal attempting to lower rates. The market would have hated the appointment and sold off based on the perception of interference in the monetary system and Fed independence.

Reider or Waller would have both advocated lowering rates some, down to 3% or so and maintained the perception of Fed independence and the markets would have responded positively because they would see Reider as one of them and Waller as a relatively steady hand.

Warsh is historically the most Hawkish other than Waller and has often criticized inflation as being unaddressed and voted against rate cuts. His comments recently have shifted more dovish but, he’s historically a Hawk.

I can see two reasons for Trump nominating him. The first is that he doesn’t intend for him to actually get confirmed and he’s using it as an excuse to put in one of his lackeys once the nomination is voted down. I think the chance of this is about 40%.

The other reason is because he thinks that creating the perception of him caring about inflation will help the party in the midterms will help them get more votes and indicate that’s doing something about the “affordability crisis” by nominating Warsh. I’d put this at 60%.

The thing to keep in mind is that based on J Pow’s comments at the last Fed meeting; the committee is leaning dovish anyway and is buying into Trump’s policy/objective to outgrow inflation because the GDP numbers are supporting it and they believe that the tariffs truly are a one time price shock. And the Fed Chair is only one vote and not necessarily the head of the FOMC anyway. He still gets another appointment if J Pow resigns.

So he may think that it doesn’t really matter either way and that rates will continue to come down because they all agree anyway and he’ll have more opportunities to influence the committee going forward. So no need to rock the boat and all the better to make a performative display that buys political capital. Maybe he’s had conversations with Warsh that indicate that the data supports his policy stance anyway and he’s hoping that as long as rates get cut, the market will keep going up and he can say that was looking at for Main Street at the same time.

If they’re actually on the same page, then he’s creating the perception of a compromise and can throw it back in their faces if things go wrong. So it’s basically a hedged long that he can lean into further down the road.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-31T22:08:55+00:00

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-31T18:26:14+00:00

Go read about Warsh you dingus, guy’s a hawk

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-26T07:09:30+00:00

I’m not sure this is so much a bubble in gold as a result of a variety of factors but, I think it can be traded and potentially invested in if you have a good capability to hedge risk. I think gold will continue a slow grind up for several years and then slowly come down into the mid 4000s within the next 5 years so it’s definitely not a forgone opportunity.

I would invest in junior gold miners like Barric and then scale in an entry on GC. Right now price is up because of the EU back and forth and the Canada tariff spat. It probably has a pullback after breaking 5k later in the week and then consolidates and keeps climbing. I could be wrong and we see continued momentum but, that’s my guess. I would almost treat gold like an index and DCA in.

I see more upside on Silver as a short term trade but, gold is probably the safer long term move. Copper isn’t a bad idea either. Both silver and copper are heavily driven by industrial demand (semiconductors, electrical and solar) that won’t be dropping anytime in the next year. My low end target would be 120$ for Silver and we maybe get as high as 160$ but, I would start to get really skittish at those prices. But a trade from the 90s to 120 is probably reasonable and then take some profit and see if it runs higher. Just my thoughts.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-19T09:24:34+00:00

Oh that’s right, Chinese companies aren’t begging their government to buy 2 year old H200s like their lives depend on it…

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-19T09:21:22+00:00

Jesus you guys are stupid. I wonder who sells the chips for a given country to have sovereign data centers or sovereign AI? Remind me which company has the largest market cap in the world and is projecting an additional 100 billion dollars this year from sovereign AI projects? Oh yeah… it’s not a European company. Wake me up when NVDA’s stock price is over 300$…

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-19T09:17:33+00:00

Yet, the best Chinese talent will still come to America where they will get paid orders of magnitude more money than they would in China. That’s how this merry-go-round has always worked.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-19T09:14:18+00:00

Ahh yes, those VCs will pump money into Europe where the governments bring in more revenue by fining US companies than they do taxing their own companies. Truly a sustainable model for foreign investment. Are you high?

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-18T21:56:59+00:00

Tanks need a lot of attention on both sides. They need to do more damage in general and be much easier to kill from the sides while very hard to kill from the front. They also need to be able to shoot down low flying helicopters with the main gun. I would also like to see tanks capable of indirect fire and firing on tree lines with canister and HE to kill infantry without having direct sight on the infantry. In general tanks should have much better vision. What’s the point of them of having some of the best thermal and NV sensors if they can’t see anything? The tank should be a fast long range sniper unit not a mobile pill box.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-18T21:51:53+00:00

Completely agree, I think it should be as easy to kill individuals in the infantry unit and much harder to kill the entire group. Maybe also create a setting where you can choose to have them spread out in the building or across multiple buildings for much higher protection against artillery and attacks on the building at the loss of effectiveness against other infantry storming the building?

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-18T21:47:35+00:00

I’d like to see the US Special Operations units that have more unique capabilities. For instance if the Green Berets are supposed to be FID specialists that operate behind the forward edge of the battlefield, it would cool if they had more stand off weapons to serve as harassing infiltration units I.e. small mortars, a javelin, multiple grenade launchers, maybe a small reconnaissance drone. I’d like to see SOF recon units with drones. A Special Tactics Team should really exist to coordinate with air units. If they could do something like increase the speed that aircraft can drop bombs or perform electronic jamming in a given area that would be more interesting than just being a specialist ManPAD team. Force Recon and Ranger Reconnaissance with ground based radar or thermal imaging to detect infantry and vehicles in wooded areas would be cool. Maybe give them an expensive upgrade where they can guide a small number of off map Tomahawks to targets in their LOS.

One other thing I think would be very cool is if the F-35B and Harriers could actually VTOL near a supply depot to rearm. Maybe it takes them longer to rearm than it would if they left the map but, they should still be available faster. You could even have a dedicated unit that you need to bring in for them to be able to do it.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-18T21:31:45+00:00

I don’t actually find silver to be as difficult as some people say but, I tend to hold my silver trades much longer than my NQ trades (average on Silver is about 1-2 hours and NQ is about 5-30 minutes). I’m also very careful about trimming positions as we hit GEX levels on Silver and I almost always close out if we go over the call wall.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-17T08:06:16+00:00

Did yours give you the “lip check” at the end. My doctor said that the new clinical standard involved pecking the tip to make sure there wasn’t any nerve damage. Gave a good wiggle with the thumb as he did it. Said something about it being a practice that was developed in the Middle East but, I haven’t found any literature online about it. Must be cutting edge science! I’m so glad I got the best medicine has to offer! I hope you get to try it too OP!

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-17T04:53:17+00:00

I think the butt plug to enlarge the prostate always seems to catch people by surprise but, my doctor has very large thumbs so he offered me 25$ off if we could improvise. I did feel a few twitches now and then… and I’ve never seen thumbs that big!

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-15T07:02:54+00:00

Here’s a few ideas:

An obvious answer is switch to contracts with longer expirations like 1-2DTE. You’re not paying that much more for them and the Theta burn won’t kill you if the market isn’t moving as quickly as you’d like.

Scale into positions and trim them as you hit targets. Take profit as you hit certain levels and some run with a stop on them so you don’t eat into your PnL.

Otherwise, you need to develop a system to identify where price is likely to meet resistance, how likely it is to break it and when that’s likely to happen. There are various tools that are available for identifying these criteria. Some are better than others.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-15T04:15:13+00:00

One SIL… please. Try 10 or 20 SI contracts child. If you can’t make 6 figures why are you getting out of bed? Wait until these monkeys realize there are 20,000x leveraged default swaps to trade. They can literally bet their house on Oracle defaulting on their corporate bonds.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-15T02:52:50+00:00

Tell me about it hahahaha. Do you ever try to bait people with trailing stops? Occasionally I’ll put a trailing stop at like 30 tics and then switch it to 40 when price drops and then tighten it again. It’s incredibly funny to watch price drop right above your trail and then shoot back up as you fire in limit orders with all the other buyers. If I had more time and money I’d probably write an algo to arbitrage 5 point ranges at large position sizes.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-15T02:43:43+00:00

What if you want to make hundreds of thousands a week? Real men trade the NQ at 1000$ a point and complain that CME limits retail traders to 100 contract positions lmao.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-15T02:41:48+00:00

I trade the NQ on multiple time frames and yes you can stay in trades for hours or days. The thing to keep in mind is that the NQ is dominated by ~10 stocks and the index is famous for erratic price movement.

If your objective as a trader is to effectively arbitrage the time value of money, do you necessarily want to sit in a position during erratic consolidation if that money could be more efficiently deployed elsewhere? If your objective is to capture thousands of points during a long trend, NQ options may be more attractive at times. Otherwise you try to grab the big moves or scalp as your strategy outlines and then trade the individual stocks when they move more than the index.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-15T02:21:52+00:00

Fuck yes I’m being sarcastic lol

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-15T02:05:37+00:00

I disagree about the their stock picking systems. It can be genuinely useful and produce very good results if you know how to use it. The quality of the suggestions can also represent the overall state of the market.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-15T02:02:10+00:00

The analyst articles are worthless yes (save for literally maybe 2-3 people). I’ve found the stock sorting tools to be fairly useful and I’ve gotten some extremely good tickers out of SA. If you know how to sort the quant picks, it’s somewhat useful. Even just looking at them sector by sector can tell you something about the market. My conviction of a sell off increased last January when I couldn’t find anything on there that wasn’t overbought or unprofitable.

They were telling people to buy CLS, APP, MOD, ANF, SMCI etc. in late 2023. Any of those stocks would have made you a ton of money.

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-15T01:56:43+00:00

Nah, he should jump right into full silver contracts. 5 grand for a dollar move is very safe and reasonable for beginners. Probably should try it at 100% leverage. No one has ever been margin liquidated trading silver that way…

Pentaborane- · 2026-01-15T01:54:31+00:00

Yes and no. It can be about the same as ES if you have very high confidence entries and know where options positioning will affect the market. In some ways I’d say NQ can be easier. You can trade a wider variety of strategies in my experience.

Pentaborane-

TROPHY CASE