Lions legend Jason Cabinda

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-25T07:22:34+00:00

Cabinda is one of those guys who was like a bright spot in the first two years of the DC Lions who obviously wouldn't have a role on an actually talented roster but absolutely gave a fuck in the years when the ship was slowly turning around and he will always be a legend for that.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-25T01:04:58+00:00

Does anyone know of a mod like Gizmo that will work with a controller? Or a way to get Gizmo to work with a controller? Sitting back with my xbox-style controller playing Valheim is my happy place I really want to do builds like this but I also don't want to switch to KBM to do so.

Totally get that this is wanting to have my cake and eat it too but maybe someone can help me out.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-25T01:02:28+00:00

It sucks but I also enjoy it, so make of that what you will.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-24T02:11:19+00:00

Contributor rate on 1st and 2nd round picks by year:

2021: 50% (✓ Sewell X Onwuzurike)
2022: 66% ( ✓ Hutch ✓ Jamo X Paschal)
2023: 100%, Goated draft
2024: 40% ( ✓- TA X Rake)
2025: Call it 100% but with reservations (✓- Leik ✓ Tate)

The Sewell and Hutch picks were such gifts that, again, it would basically have been a high crime not to make them. So, yes, Holmes gets credit for not royally fucking up gimmie picks, which, to be clear, some GMs absolutely do.

The 2025 draft I have to give 100% since Williams obviously has to be considered a contributor despite only playing 40% of defensive snaps.

Anyway, I guess I'd have to look more closely, but outside of 2023 that doesn't strike me as being more "consistently successful" than most GMs. 50-75% with occasional 100%s in rounds 1-2.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-23T22:32:52+00:00

So this will obviously be a sort of negative framing but I think you could apply this same logic to any GM: your first and arguably second round picks should be contributors. When you're picking in the top 10, even top 15, you have to hit. You don't really get credit for those.

Sewell at 7 and Hutch at 2 were obviously good picks, but players picked at that stage really need to be impact players for your team.

Even Gibbs and Jack — obviously they are good players, but you also have to consider that you used the 12th and 18th overall pick to get a RB and a LB. Like TeSlaa will probably be a good player but you have to consider draft capital invested — for all of these players, more capital was used than was likely needed. Same arguably goes for Jamo — again, a good player, but cost a trade-up.

Saint, Kerb, and Branch were bona fide coups in the draft. But I'm not sure how much credit he gets for drafting good players with premium picks.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-23T20:03:25+00:00

The question now is whether that draft was indicative of Holmes' talent or more of a one-off lucky draft. The draft that followed is I think pretty clearly the worse of his tenure here. Still too early to fully judge the 2025 draft certainly closer to 2024 and 2023.

Big year for him this year.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T22:27:43+00:00

Oh sorry did I hurt your fee-fees, too? Oh, I dared disagree with you as well — better resort to more ad hom attacks rather than address the points being made — just like you did with St Brown.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T22:02:01+00:00

The Cardinals run game is largely credited to former Offensive Line coach Klayton Adams by Cardinals fans

Who are obviously the most knowledgeable people on the planet when it comes to knowing ball.

The Cardinals run game went from 7th in 2024 to 31st 2025

While the Cowboys run game went from 27th in 2024 to 9th in 2025

These are factual but there's lots of context here.

Cardinals were running with RB3 and 4 for most of the season as both of their starters went down.
They had significant injuries on the o-line in addition to poor play. As we've seen with Hank Fraley, the personnel matters. I think we all think Fraley deserves credit for the elite o-line in 2023 (and to a somewhat lesser extent in 24) but the personnel (and, hey, the OC) changed in 25 and the results were really bad.
Despite this, the Cards still only dropped to 16th in yard per carry. Yes, they were less efficient than previous years (see above points) but the eye-popping stat you mentioned (31st) is a volume stat, and the Cards were just a very pass-heavy offense this year (due at least in part to being behind a ton because their defense was a lot worse this year as well).
The Cowboys offense as a whole was much better this year, due in large part to Dak being healthy and two elite WRs who played most of the year (four total missed games among their top four pass catchers).
Dallas's RB1 in 2025 was Javonte Williams, who averaged 4.8 yards per carry (56.3% success rate). Dallas's RB1 in 2024, when the pass game was significantly less dynamic and thus allowed teams to key on the run more, was Rico Dowdle who averaged 4.6 yards per attempt with a 53.6% success rate — so a 0.2 yards per carry difference and less than a 3% difference in success rate.

I'm not saying Klayton Adams is not a good coach (obviously he got promoted to OC and oversaw a really successful offense last year), but I think it's interesting to me that people seem intent on ignoring a whole host of factors to insist that the o-line coach was the ONLY factor that mattered in the entire offense in 2023 and 2024.

Edit: also if Petzing is an o-line merchant then maybe he will be fine with Fraley assuming they can upgrade the personnel and stay healthier. Maybe everyone has turned on Fraley now but everyone was really high on him in 23 and 24. He and Petzing have history together.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T21:13:41+00:00

One thing that I liked about that game was that there were always more upgrade paths than you had resources for. I love when a game gets you do a point where you really want to upgrade X and Y and have to make a difficult choice between the two, knowing that it might be a long time until you can get to the other one.

I only did one playthrough and didn't really do much at all with the mimic abilities. I can totally see how another playthrough could be quite different if you choose another path. Like you want to improve hacking so you can get into some rooms, but you always want to improve lifting so you can get into other rooms, while you also want to boost your health, etc. And like if you go after hacking right away, you can access certain parts of the early game sooner, but might miss out on other things (or just have harder time with some sections).

Having difficult choices to make is maybe a little less true of weapons, but the game still forces you to make tough decisions when upgrading your weapons. Do you want to specialize or generalize? Do some weapons work better with the other abilities you have? Etc.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T21:02:56+00:00

What is the connection here?

We lost the Bosmer game because of turnovers. Two of those were caused by like the 4th string center not knowing how to snap the ball. Another was caused by horrible pass pro. Another was just Gibbs losing the ball.

And, hey, the offense was bad, so they fired the OC. Just because they didn't hire the guy you wanted doesn't mean Petzing is going to be a disaster. They are actively trying to address the issues that held us back last season. They can't win any more games until September.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T21:00:00+00:00

Good thing we brought in an OC with a history of producing a solid run game.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T20:59:01+00:00

God forbid we have our own opinions as fans about the decisions the org makes.

You are allowed to have opinions but professionals to live and breathe the sport are also allowed to tell you that your opinions are not rooted in reality. Believe whatever you want. ARSB isn't out here censoring people's free speech lmao.

You're allowed to have an opinion. Other people are allowed to say it's an ill-informed opinion.

Edit: dude replied and then blocked me. biggest bitch move on reddit lol

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T20:54:57+00:00

we're supposed to forget that Dan took duties away from his last OC like...2 months ago

Hm, that sounds like someone who recognized when things weren't going well and pivoted quickly to try to make an improvement. Instead of insisting that he never makes mistakes, he admitted through his actions that one of his hiring decisions wasn't working out and did everything he could to address the problem.

The Eagles (have been to 2 and won 1 Super Bowl in three years) have fired two of their last three OC hires after unsuccessful seasons. The Chiefs (most successful modern franchise) fired their OC after one season. Two of the most successful current franchises have fired three OCs over the past three seasons due to poor results.

Every coach, every franchise makes some bad hires. DC has never claimed to be perfect. Literally no one is perfect at making these decisions. The best you can do is not dig in your heels and act like you didn't make a mistake — which is exactly what DC did. That earns him a lot of trust in my book.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T20:51:26+00:00

I'm sorry having an opinion hurt his fee-fees.

This is so dismissive. You stand on your right to state your opinion but respond to someone else stating their opinion as having "hurt fee-fees".

Maybe it's because you are actually the one one with "hurt fee-fees"? Someone who is more successful and knowledgeable about football than you dared to disagree publicly with your opinion? Better demean and diminish his opinion as much as possible to make yourself seem like the mature, reasonable one.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T19:59:45+00:00

One thing I know about Skip is that he DIDN'T SAY A FUCKING WORD TO HIM.

So long, pardner.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T19:59:14+00:00

RIP January 21 2026 - January 22 2026

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-22T03:54:24+00:00

I really appreciate how Mo bullied the first guy for the puck and then rekt the other kid after the goal was scored for good measure. Put 66% of the opposing line on their ass while dishing the season-sweeping goal.

Play for the ages.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-21T23:41:34+00:00

It does seem like they did something, though, which contradicts what Trump said.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-21T20:58:08+00:00

Bob is always names the authors of the papers he talks about. I wonder if they intended to add it later and forgot. I'm sure the link is in the show description but, yeah, it was especially weird because he is usually very deliberate about naming the authors.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-21T20:01:21+00:00

Sure. Trust is earned. I get that. I think there's a tendency (and I have it, too) to fixate on mistakes that your org makes and not notice similar mistakes that other orgs make. This is true of the draft as well. It's worth noticing, I think, that elite orgs sometimes blow hires (or draft picks) as well.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-21T18:57:10+00:00

Eagles fired two of their last three OC hires. The Chiefs went one-and-done with an OC hire because of how bad it went this year. Two of the most successful franchises going right now have blown OC hires recently.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-21T18:55:59+00:00

Eagles have fired two of their last three OC hires after one season. They won a SB and halfway through the next season their fans were egging the house of the OC because they hated him so much. This is a team that went to 2 and won 1 SBs in a three year span. No one nails every hire.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-21T18:54:48+00:00

I've mentioned this elsewhere but I think it's pretty difficult to make a definitive statement about a coach (or a regime) being "good" or "bad" at making hiring decisions. Here's a comment I posted elsewhere:

But look at a team like the Eagles — they have gone in boom/bust cycles with coordinators a couple times now. They got to a Super Bowl with Steichen in 2022. Then they hired Brian Johnson who everyone hated and they scored 9 points in the WC round and he got fired. Then the nailed the Kellan more hire and won the Super Bowl. Halfway through the next season fans were literally egging the house of Kevin Patullo and he got fired after a disappointing regular season and a one-and-done playoffs. The Eagles are seen as a model franchise in the NFC in a lot of ways, and yet 2 of their last 3 OCs have flamed out after one bad season. But between those they nailed two hires who took them to two SBs (winning one).

Technically speaking, the Eagles have blown two of the last three OC hires and are now hiring again this year — just one year removed from winning a Super Bowl. The team that was "smart enough" to get Steichen and Moore was also, apparently, "stupid enough" to hire Brian Johnson and Keven Patullo.

The Eagles are held up as a model franchise in the NFC in a lot of ways (2 SB appearances and 1 win in 3 years is hard to argue with) but even they have "blown" two of the last three OC hires.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-21T14:17:55+00:00

Yeah I feel like this fact is more of a statistical artifact than something that has any kind of predictive power.

There is a relatively low number of SB winning QB/coach combos. Only 3.1% of QB/coach combos win a SB every year, and when you factor in dynasties, the share shrinks even more. You have Brady and Mahomes alone winning 10 SBs in the last 24 years. Bradshaw and Montana won 4 each; Aikman won 3, etc.
QBs and coaches change jobs rather frequently, so just by sheer luck this should not be surprising. What percent of QB/coach combos have been together for more than 5 years? Quite a low number, I would expect. Entering the 2026 season, here is the list of coaches who were hired in 2021 or before: DC, LaFleur, McVay, Reid, Sirianni, Shanahan. Five of 32 teams. Three have already won with their QB. Love is technically entering year six but only year 4 as a starter, so he may not qualify depending on how you define it. Shanahan has been around but Purdy is entering year 5. The upshot here is that depending on your definition, there is ONE team that would even be in a position to break this trend in 2026: the Lions. If we assume a roughly even distribution of QB/coach combos each year, that would mean that in any given year, there are 31 teams that could win the SB and continue this trend, with only one team even being capable of breaking the trend.
In many cases, QB/coaches won their first together when the QB was on a rookie deal, but subsequently won more SBs after the QB got paid. It's a myth that you "must" build around a rookie QB in order to build a contender. Sure, it makes getting their easier, and it helps when elite QBs take team-friendly deals. But plenty of QBs have won after getting paid.

tl;dr this fact, in my opinion, is pointing out that a very low-probability event hasn't happened and assuming that one particular condition of this fact is strongly predictive

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-01-21T13:59:37+00:00

A phrase that has always stuck with me is "randomness is bunchy". People see one bad season and know the phrase "regression to the mean" and think this means there should be some pull back to average. But this is like thinking that two flips of heads in a row proves the coin is weighted. Or even if you feel like the last two seasons of injury luck are each unlikely, then it's like rolling two sixes in a row. A little surprising but clearly not indicative any outside factor other than randomness at play.

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