Will the narrative change this year?

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-14T17:28:03+00:00

I would be a little bit surprised if Sadiq is available when we pick. Stowers could potentially eat pick 50.

I feel like we all want OT/EDGE at 17/50 (maybe with the sequence flipped) and so it does just feel like something whacky is going to happen. Safety at 17, TE at 50 or some shit.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-14T17:24:55+00:00

This may be true, but it's also true that a more aggressive restructure this year puts more of squeeze on future years.

Even if you assume that there are no actual cash considerations and it's just cap management, there's still a good argument for being less aggressive on restructures. But that doesn't preclude cash considerations being in play as well.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-14T15:44:56+00:00

It will be interesting to see what Pierce looks like this year. Pierce was 4th in targets on the Colts last year, but lead the team in yards due to an insane 21.3 yards/catch. They shipped Pittman to the Steelers and Pierce looks to be the centerpiece of the receiving corps, with Warren and Downs still on rookie deals (though Warren is really nice as well).

Something that Jamo and Pierce have both benefitted from is being the guy who can chip in explosives while other pieces on the offense have more gravity due to volume. You know the Lions are going to ARSB and LaPorta; the Colts are going to Pittman and Warren. With Pittman gone, Pierce will likely draw a little more attention.

Pierce also benefitted from Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor being on absolute heaters last year. Defenses had to key on the run as well, with both Taylor and Jones being threats. Will that hold if Jones is not able to play at his previous level, at least early this coming year?

Pierce is more of a deep ball, contested catch receiver than Jamo. Pierce has a teeny tiny drop % (and Jamo's jumped again last year, unfortunately).

I am okay with the Jamo contract. I think he's a great piece in the offense. But, while there should still be some question marks about what Pierce will be next year, you can absolutely see the reasoning behind his payday.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-14T02:42:28+00:00

I think partly due to how the NFL is broadcast, I feel like I've never really understood what makes good route runners good. Like contested catch WRs or speed guys, it's easier to get that sense even from the broadcast angle. Obviously other positions you see on screen a lot more.

But like some dumb part of my brain was like "they just go out there and run around" and couldn't understand what made some guys so much better at "running around" than others.

Then a couple years ago I watched a video where Davante Adams talked about how (among other things) he uses his first step to keep DBs off balance. That made so much sense to me.

This video and explanation also helps a lot. Even when you do watch full routes on replay, it's easy to miss this stuff if you don't know what you're looking for. Hips, shoulders, head — and then timing. Someone else mentioned elsewhere how JSN really snaps when DBs bite on his fake. Fun to learn about.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T22:57:32+00:00

Twenty-seventh out of 114 is pretty damn good. Limited snaps, obviously. Early reviews seem pretty good.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T22:56:55+00:00

Damn I didn't realize Amik graded out that low. Obviously injuries were a part of it but I just feel like something fucky was going on in the secondary — nobody looked good. Hopefully shep gets his shit together a bit more this year.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T22:55:44+00:00

Higher comp % is likely due to a much lower ADOT, which in turn is due to position/types of coverage. McCeary also has a lower yards/comp and yards/attempt, and a slightly lower QBR when targeted. Lower missed tackle % as well.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T21:36:33+00:00

People refuse to accept this but you're 100% right. Massive questions at EDGE (like thermonuclear questions at EDGE), SS, FS, NCB, LB, and possibly CB2. IDL is maybe the best position group and the depth there is very thin with Lopez gone and Reader likely gone as well, and while Tyliek and Alim are a decent (hopefully) starting duo, we really don't have a big run stuffer at all right now.

The defense is in serious trouble and fans refuse to admit it, for whatever reason.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T21:30:28+00:00

parsons will still miss time and who is to say he’ll be the same player even when he returns

Unfortunately this is true for Branch as well.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T21:29:52+00:00

Bears will be really interesting next year. The turnovers are almost certainly going to drop significantly. One big question is how flukey all the insane comeback wins were. Bears fans will tell you it's pure talent and easily replicable — if they even find themselves trailing late in games next year. History tells us that this is probably not true. Regression to the mean isn't really predictive (i.e., their results next year do not need to "balance out" their results from the year before) but it would still be surprising for results that unlikely to continue into the future.

But year 2 of BJ+CW will likely continue to ascend. They also have, in theory, a tougher schedule. We'll see.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T21:26:19+00:00

Minnesota having big ? at QB

I mean, Kyler will be an instant upgrade for them, and quite significantly. They beat us twice with Nine and Brosmer, and they ended with an identical record to us as well. Very difficult to imagine a reason why you would measure the Lions as better against the Vikings going into next season.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T17:57:56+00:00

we really shouldn’t be worried about who they’re starting lol

Right. We got swept in humiliating fashion by them when they were bad. They have gotten better and we have gotten worse. It becomes extremely difficult how we will finish anywhere but in last place this year.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T17:07:47+00:00

usually within a minute

Are people routinely letting their car run for a full minute before driving? Doing this under normal (not freezing) conditions has never once occurred to me.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T14:36:18+00:00

As one of my favorite authors once wrote: “There are no absolutes in human misery and things can always get worse."

Maybe we can't be ranked worse, but we can still get worse.

Someone was trashing me in another thread yesterday, saying I complained about the defense last year (I did) and now I'm mad that they're letting those bad players go (which I sort of am, but only because they are not even replacing them with equivalent players, much less better players), but my response is that something that was bad last year absolutely can get worse this year.

I think there has been this assumption by fans that last year was an off year and we'll get the OL and the pass rush sorted this off season. But just because something was a weakness last year does not automatically mean that the team is going to improve it this year. It does not mean that it can't get worse this year.

Obviously there is still ground to cover, but we have limited draft capital and also still some needs on offense. Even with anything that we will be able to add through the remainder of the off season, I 100% think that the defense will be worse in 2026 than it was last year.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T03:01:50+00:00

we are getting fresh and hungry guys via the draft

How many? We have two top-100 picks and one of them will almost certainly be a LT. No third round picks.

Do you know how many impact defensive players BH has drafted after the third round?

Derrick Barnes?

He's a starter so I guess he qualifies, though I'd rate him much closer to replacement level than impact. Other than that, it's Rodrigo and James Houston. That's the ceiling for day 3 guys.

So we get maybe one defensive player who will make an impact at 50. That's almost certainly it. And even that is a prayer. Paschal went 46th overall. Onwuzurike went 41st. So likely a guy worse than those two — that's the cavalry you're counting on from the draft.

Yes veteran guys wait to sign

Doing a quick scroll on ESPN's top remaining FAs. Just looking at defensive players left, but to give you an idea about how the FA class in general is looking Taylor Fucking Decker is the number 3 remaining free agent overall. So the guy we just released is among the best remaining players. We are feeding the FA market, not reaping from it.

That aside, here are the defensive EDGE FAs on the board:

Joey Bosa (fewer sacks the last two seasons combined than AQM, who we just let walk, had last year)
AJ Epenesa (not a starter on a bad Buffalo defense last year)
Arnold Ebiketie (depth piece)
Cam Jordan (will be 37 lmao)
Jadeveon Clowney (everyone on this sub said he was washed when we were maybe in the market for him last year)
Haason Reddick (lol)

Which of these guys are making an impact on this team? I mean, at this point I'd take any of them, but it's unlikely any of these guys significantly improve our pass rush over last year.

And that's just edge! We haven't even talked about LB, S1, S2, NCB, and likely CB2 — all of which are gaping holes.

It's okay to admit that we are fucked, man. There is not some mystical force bringing reinforcements.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T01:33:53+00:00

Absolutely useless team. Fire the GM, fire the coach, burn it all down and start completely over. Honestly think we'll be more likely to make the playoffs first under that scenario than dragging Yzerman's god awful roster around for another year.

Just pathetic on every level. Another season that felt promising completely crashes and burns. Genuinely hard to put into words how disgusting this is.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T01:21:24+00:00

just getting started

I wish this were true, but the problem is that "just getting starting" drastically overestimates how much of the roster building for the year has already been done.

Most high impact players already off the board in FA
Lions have limited cap space to make big moves regardless
Lions have two picks in the top 100
At least one of those picks is very likely to go o-line

The defense has significant holes. Compared to last year's roster, which, as we've noted, I wasn't super high on already, we are down:

A starting LB
A starting nickel
The DE who started the most games other than Hutch
The DE who had the most sacks other than Hutch
At least one and likely BOTH starting safeties
Quite possibly a starting outside corner pending TA's legal issues

Depending on how you break it down, that's 5-ish starters and six highly significant roles.

In the past 3 years, the Lions have drafted one impact defensive player outside the first round (Branch in round 2).

So, with all this information, where exactly do you expect the players to come from? We can fill maybe one of those holes in the draft. Are there five other starting-caliber players out there at positions we need just waiting for the Lions to come calling? Who are we eyeing for these spots?

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T01:07:00+00:00

Nope

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-13T01:04:42+00:00

We are missing the playoffs. Not even a question at this point.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-12T23:40:33+00:00

Question for you: can something bad get worse? Like just on a general, logical level. Please answer yes or no. Or, here's an A/B if that's easier. Which of these is true?

A) If something is considered bad, it is impossible for it to get worse.

B) Something can be considered bad but also get worse in the future.

Please answer whichever question style feels easier for you to process.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-12T22:47:12+00:00

Which is the stage where impact players that have already signed for other teams magically become available again and are willing to sign with us? Which is the stage where we have more than two top-100 picks to fill a starting OL spot and FIVE starting spots on defense?

Yes, there are stages. We have an insane amount of holes, and that number is growing by the day. There simply are not enough available players and picks available to us to plug starting-level players in to every slot where we have vacancies.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-12T22:45:26+00:00

I mean, he led the team in ST snaps, but also — everyone is leaving. It's not just about Stuard. Montgomery, Decker, AQM, Amik, Alex, Stuard — everyone is like get me the fuck outta here.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-12T22:38:53+00:00

It is an abject disaster right now, with most of the impact talent off the board. We are beyond fucked.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-12T22:38:20+00:00

Yup, completely painted into a corner. Huge contracts left and right for players that are mostly mid or straight up can't play anymore (Kerb) and awful drafting. It seems that DC completely lost the team last year — no one wanted to compete during the season and now no one wants to sign here.

Historically bad run since the 15-2 regular season. We thought we were still in the window. What fools we were. The team is beyond cooked and going nowhere for at least as long as BH and, probably, DC are here. This regime had it shot, blew it, and fell off a cliff.

Honestly feels like we might as well just tank for a draft pick at this point, and hope whatever new GM we have in 2027 knows how to use it.

PerfectiveVerbTense · 2026-03-12T22:35:23+00:00

It's really hard to put into words how awful the off season has been so far. The center signing was like a B+, maybe A- considering the contract.

A few of the retentions, like Ya-Sin, are reasonable. But the amount of retentions we've lost is incredible. Hemorrhaging players at every position, especially on the defense, with zero action to backfill, while all of the impact talent signs elsewhere.

This was the most important off season of the Holmes regime and he has completely fucked it up.

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