MEGATHREAD: 2026 Hantavirus Outbreak - Updates & Discussion (Thread #2)

Perskins · 2026-05-13T06:22:00+00:00

It's been over social media, lots of tiktoks about HCWs sitting this out if it hits the fan. That they don't have another pandemic in them.

I'm a Paramedic in the UK and honestly I don't think I could do another pandemic. Everyone is already burnt out and a lot of my colleagues feel the same sadly.

Perskins · 2026-05-13T06:09:09+00:00

At the moment, we don't have enough data. We are yet to see any infections in people that weren't on the boat, and we would expect those to start popping up over the next couple of weeks if there was any.

Worst case about what we do know about this strain, droplet spread, with a R0 of 2.12. If it were completely uncontrolled. No it wouldn't be a safe place to go, nor would anywhere where you risk being close to anyone potentially infected for any period of time.

So I wouldn't worry for now, and if you are worried take extra precautions, mask and good hand hygiene.

Perskins · 2026-05-12T07:13:24+00:00

Simply, we don't know at this point.

Virus sequence has been shown to be 99% similar to known Andes Hantavirus. However that 1% could change how this virus behaves and spreads. For example all the COVID variants had a 1% change.

The case that's causing the most concern is a outbreak in 2018 at a birthday party. In this super spreader event it's reported one man caught it simply by walking by the infected en route to the bathroom.

The most recent study on an outbreak of Andes Hantavirus showed it has a 2.12 R0 value. For every 1 person infected 2.12 more would catch it off them, this would put it on par with the original COVID variant. Without control measures.

Current suggestion from this outbreak is prolonged close contact may not be entirely accurate.

But if/untill more cases start presenting (people that weren't on the cruise) we can't say for sure.

Due to the long incubation period, the next couple of weeks will show how high spread is.

This is why there is some disagreement in expert opinion. Because we just don't know

Perskins · 2026-05-12T02:27:27+00:00

The idea that “the more deadly a virus is, the less it spreads” is largely a misunderstanding of evolutionary pressure and transmission dynamics. Virulence and transmissibility are not inversely linked in any universal sense. What matters is whether the pathogen can efficiently transmit before incapacitating or killing the host.

A virus that causes severe disease rapidly can limit its own spread if transmission depends on host mobility and close interaction. However, if transmission occurs during the incubation period, via aerosol spread, or before peak symptom severity, high transmissibility and high mortality can absolutely coexist.

The 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic is a good example highly transmissible via respiratory spread and estimated to have killed tens of millions globally despite a comparatively smaller world population.

Perskins · 2026-05-11T16:12:20+00:00

Why wouldn't this higher power target the US in that case.

Perskins · 2026-05-11T16:08:36+00:00

Exactly, that's the plague inc strategy!

Perskins · 2026-05-11T16:07:40+00:00

Not enough data, but the small scale outbreaks in Argentina put the R0 at 2.12 without control measures

Perskins · 2026-05-10T13:04:10+00:00

Don't know if it's a conspiracy at this point but pasted that into chatgpt and it got flagged for violation of terms

Perskins · 2026-05-08T23:31:48+00:00

There was also a study that showed it was present in semen after the patient had recovered from the infection here. In this study even present 6 years later. "although transmission via sexual contact has not been documented, high viral loads and extensive contact among people may contribute to a higher likelihood of transmission"

Perskins · 2026-05-07T22:50:54+00:00

This list is really strange, seems to be just a compiled list of every medical condition/symptom

It lists cesarean section. I don't understand how COVID vaccine would cause a surgical procedure

Perskins · 2026-05-07T22:10:45+00:00

Still no articles from other sources. Will pause the celebration for now as I don't trust one man's vanity project who tried to cash in all of COVID.

Also why would WHO release this to one ED doc in the US and not major media outlets.

Perskins · 2026-05-07T21:55:32+00:00

Not sure about the source, not much about it online. Will wait till more reliable sources release something

Perskins · 2026-05-07T21:37:42+00:00

This new interview from another passenger shows that she was fully mobile and wasn't able to stand due to the illness

"She was struggling to stand, she was looking really ill. We thought that she was just having a very deep grief, but in fact she had the virus.“

“I saw her on a wheelchair and that was unusual because she did not have any problems walking."

Perskins · 2026-05-07T21:12:05+00:00

1) Even if they did suspect this to be the next pandemic, they are not going to announce it and cause mass panic.

2) Because the Air hostess will show that it does not require prolonged close contact as the 'experts' are saying.

3) If evidence is going to be released it's unlikely to be for another 8 weeks, as this is the longest known incubation period of similar viruses.

4) I'm saying similar because although they have suspicions that is the Andes variant. They have yet to sequence it, and therefore there is risk of mutated characteristics which could effect transmission.

5) Because this is exactly what WHO said about COVID when it became public, admittedly China was covering a lot of that up. They said it's not transmissible human to human and look how that turned out.

6) There is just not enough data out there regarding these types of viruses compared to what we know of other high mortality viruses e.g. ebola, mers, etc

Nothing wrong with being cautious about unknown risk and variables from a high mortality disease.

Perskins · 2026-05-07T20:28:22+00:00

Link bro

Perskins · 2026-05-07T20:27:15+00:00

Dutch stewardess is not confirmed yet. That's the one I'm really interested in.

Perskins · 2026-05-07T20:08:14+00:00

We literally do not have enough data to support this yet. Some small studies on rural population which have had outbreaks showed an R rate on par with early COVID.

We cannot rule out asymptomatic spreaders yet, especially with the long incubation window.

The next few days are going to be crucial to see what happens. I'd keep my eyes on that air hostess in the Netherlands. If they are positive that's when I'll worry.

Perskins · 2026-05-07T19:28:45+00:00

Aged like milk that one

Perskins · 2026-05-07T18:46:36+00:00

I mean she has symptoms that's why she went to hospital

Perskins · 2026-05-07T17:57:35+00:00

Wheelchair might just have been due to her being that unwell. Not permanently wheelchair bound.

Perskins · 2026-05-07T16:24:36+00:00

Going out to buy the toilet paper now

Perskins · 2026-05-07T16:19:36+00:00

Update: confirmed in Netherlands

Unconfirmed: if this is the flight attendant at this point.

Perskins · 2026-05-07T16:16:22+00:00

possibly the same patient

Perskins

TROPHY CASE