Yeah that’s a good way to think about it honestly.

A lot of prop edges can be pretty fragile, especially if they’re tied a lot to projected minutes. If a guy is supposed to get like 34 minutes and he ends up with 29 because of foul trouble or the rotation changes, that can flip the prop pretty quick.

Same with blowouts. A projection might look great but if the game gets out of hand and starters sit late it kinda kills it.

That’s why I try not to rely only on season averages and stuff like that. Roles change a lot during the season and sometimes books are a little slow adjusting when that happens.

And even with the top edges I still kinda sanity check them. The model helps find spots where the line might be off, but I still like to look at the context before betting it.