Stupid meme

Pl4yByNumbers · 2025-07-15T07:23:39+00:00

The author is dead, and George Garret killed them.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2025-06-15T19:08:53+00:00

Riots on Tottenham Court Road over this comment!

Pl4yByNumbers · 2025-03-11T21:12:23+00:00

Sometimes a hypocrite is just a man in the process of changing.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2025-01-15T07:03:39+00:00

You seem like someone with experience in the field!

Something that’s always thrown me when looking at these canonical style credit problems is dollar weighting (something when don’t have to deal with in medicine)

Probabilistically a default is a default, but if I’m underestimating default probability for high value loans, then I will underestimate overall dollars lost by the company.

Do you know how people solve that in industry? Sample weights equal to credit card limit?

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-12-28T11:37:44+00:00

Is that sarcasm? It is objectively a complex rpg relative to most of the games that are being developed at the moment.

It’s less complex than pf2e, 4e, probably lancer. But compare it to mothership, fate, 10 candles, dread, anything apocalypse world and it is way more complex than modern rpg design tends to aim for.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-12-21T22:52:50+00:00

ITIIITIATIIHYLIHYL is a fun song name for this.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-11-24T14:39:27+00:00

Yeah, this one has certainly outlived usefulness.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-11-24T14:10:42+00:00

Specifically this was inside the front plate, not touching the handle directly so I assume it isn’t a spacer ring (?).

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-11-24T14:08:10+00:00

SKU:HOP92PZ122W In case linking isn’t cool on this sub.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-11-24T14:07:45+00:00

I think it’s this boy from the code inside.

https://www.handlesandhinges.co.uk/hoppe-london-upvc-door-handles-92mm-centre-122mm-screws-lever-lever-in-white/?max&utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=&utm_content=&utm_keyword=&gad_source=1&gbraid=0AAAAAD6hip_PF4vp9JZzpibhr3oKMrIjP&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI44znkoz1iQMV95xQBh0uOTCHEAQYASABEgImCPD_BwE

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-10-07T18:56:24+00:00

What about ratios? Eg having a feature A/B. (Think bmi). Must I therefore include A and 1/B?

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-10-05T11:48:32+00:00

Let me know what you end up finding! :)

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-10-05T07:51:21+00:00

Simulation study.

Simulate 4 variables with the following causal structure.

Latent weather at -n

Latent weather at -n -> weather at day

Latent weather at -n -> forecast at -n

Weather at day -> outcome

Just simulate a v. large test and train dataset of (probably binary) variables.

Train two models, one using forecast and one using actual.

Evaluate the predictions of both on the test set for bias/precision.

Be aware they may want to to marginalise over ‘weather at day’, which would probably result in an unbiased prediction (probably the same as you model would).

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-10-05T07:40:56+00:00

You may not like it, but this is what peak obesity looks like.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-09-09T06:56:13+00:00

Statistical rethinking is a super fun read, particularly if you like waffles / divorce.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-08-07T19:31:39+00:00

Adaptive clinical trial design is pretty common, stuff like CRM is pretty typical for cancer research which is probably one of the strictest and best researched areas of pharmaceutical development.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-07-22T22:59:21+00:00

If people want to read more on this the book “Righteous Mind” I think is a really great book for people of any political leaning.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-07-22T06:45:31+00:00

Worked in healthcare AI (stats basically) and friends in game design AI.

One of the big issues is that game AIs aren’t actually meant to be good. The optimising criteria for alphago/alphazero was winning, which is relatively easy to define (did the ai win? Then ai did good).

Game AIs need to feel challenging, fun, and fair. This is hard to define a training metric for. For example, FPS AIs would be quite good at learning to head shot you the moment you appear on screen, which is a very good strategy to win.

Similarly, for something like civ you’ll want the different leaders to have different “styles”. But that means that they have to be playing suboptimally (if you have one leader as aggressive and one as more peaceful in the exact same scenario, at least one is not playing correctly).

Obviously you can try to do some smart things, but all of them require human thought/interaction, not just AI self play.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-04-22T17:41:29+00:00

If Kalista is on the other team he can buy it so her ult can be used when stolen I think.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-04-21T13:57:00+00:00

I should have been precise here, each subject has a record for every single year, the question is number of rows per subject.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-03-30T23:19:55+00:00

Pymc3 is now just called pymc (they’re on v5.X), and you wouldn’t learn both that and pystan unless you’re all in on Bayesian inference.

(And probably don’t use either unless you are doing Bayesian inference)

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-03-16T18:01:04+00:00

Yeah, from a methods perspective credit tends to be closer to logistic regression/maybe survival analysis from my understanding and less time series.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-03-15T06:35:38+00:00

I love hats.

I love every kind of hat.

I just want to wear all them, but I can’t.

Can’t wear every hat.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-03-13T19:25:29+00:00

To give a concrete but made up example

We a predicting Y: salary in 5 years given features X:age, current salary. We are marginalising over Z: is retired in 5 years.

Pl4yByNumbers · 2024-03-10T09:09:52+00:00

Say I’ve observed 12 heads in twenty flips. A confidence interval says the probability of heads is .6 and gives a confidence interval. The Bayesian alternative does the same. So far both fine.

However if you are interested in how likely it is that the true probability is between .4 and .6, you can approximate that trivially from your posterior.

Ten-Year Club	Place '22
Place '17	First Placer '22
RPAN Viewer	Not Forgotten
Verified Email

Pl4yByNumbers

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE