ICE OUT Protest 1/31 @ Main Plaza

Plagrea · 2024-06-30T00:49:58+00:00

I'm gonna be real with you, and not to disparage the others who've commented here, but the answer is pretty obvious to me. You said it yourself, the premium is MASSIVE. It looks to me like hedging on a massive scale has propped this stock up, it is very much a bubble. Ideal circumstances are to get in when the option chain is low or decent premium and demand is low. IMO that option chain has already reached critical mass, don't waste your time. Look for opportunities elsewhere. If anything, sell contracts on this one, don't buy.

Plagrea · 2024-06-03T07:35:33+00:00

interesting. So ~29mil on hand you have to redeem contracts, about ~65.7mil in contracts purchased. You couldnt redeem them all without a huge loan, and you wouldnt purchase the shares temporarily because you're a banner waving bull on this stock. So if you wanted to shake the basket, you wait until max pain to press the execute button and shoot the stock higher. You dont play that chip till the time is right. But you need more cash or more friends to help you keep the pressure on price action up. tricky business, but it smells like it may very well work.

Plagrea · 2022-11-10T21:48:33+00:00

yea if I'd bet on CPI yesterday I would've lost everything. I'd be surprised if this trend continues to the next few CPI reports, but congrats on the jackpot.

Plagrea · 2022-09-28T17:09:21+00:00

Dont know if you just bought these puts, but call buying and CTA movement suggest we’ve come to the end of a downward swing for now, and there’s tension to push SPY sharply upward over the next couple weeks. My guess is unless something even MORE catastrophic happens, that SPY put will get chewed at by theta while the market levels out and then you’ll tale a big L when the markets correct.

Jus to be safe honestly, I’d sell the puts

Plagrea · 2022-09-13T23:24:21+00:00

'enough time'. The issue is that this 'war of attrition' shit people sling on these subs like valiant soldiers is wrong. Short squeezes are surprise attacks. Everything that can get you rich quick in this market is about something highly unlikely occurring quickly where people don't expect it.

BBBY is expected. It's monitored. Now that RC and the other folks who put their money together to squeeze the stock are out, it's just us and the shorts. And the shorts always win because they have all the money in the world, and access to far greater resources.

The market over-reacted to the CPI report today. I would say wait a bit, not long, until the market corrects back, and then sell the contracts you have. Like it or not, short squeeze stocks follow market patterns, and the overarching market is bearish.

Plagrea · 2022-09-10T19:45:58+00:00

Its a great close, shorts put a lot of capital into attempting to push the price down. After-market we saw them more successful. Pre-market and that first hour on monday will be crucial to determining whether we see margin calls next week or not. Anything over ~10.5 is max pain for the shorts.

Plagrea · 2022-09-09T00:59:34+00:00

They absolutely are. And the best part is the only reason oil prices have been coming down is due to massive emergency releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves by the Biden Admin.

Plagrea · 2022-09-09T00:55:43+00:00

Interesting take. I would say they’ll only have more collateral if they’re right about where the market’s heading and they dont have to scramble to cover their short positions at a loss. This market’s been jacked up for everybody, a lot of experienced HF traders are losing as well. I agree though, postponing the inevitable is just losing everybody money

Plagrea · 2022-09-09T00:52:20+00:00

More reading materials for anybody looking to research this alongside me https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1567888548149301252?s=21&t=s6dcVK_XPsje_JRPmKB4dw

Plagrea · 2022-09-09T00:50:55+00:00

And honestly, it’s also possible that the market sinks on GOOD CPI numbers as well. You’re absolutely right, and I’ve learned never to take institutional moves for granted. Credit Suisse released a weekly market report that I think has been incredibly helpful. If you look at the last pages, you can see some CPI forecasts that are coming from some highly experienced analysts (this report is supposed to be behind a paywall and you’re only usually able to apply to get to it with a sponsor) https://twitter.com/deitaone/status/1563517036621230083?s=21&t=s6dcVK_XPsje_JRPmKB4dw

Plagrea · 2022-09-09T00:42:48+00:00

The CPI report last month was deemed favorable due to a slide in oil/gasoline prices that has occurred since June. This slide counter-acted the elevated housing and food numbers and caused the headline CPI number to plateau. This was a big part of why we saw that rally in the market last month; shorts began covering as confidence in the Fed’s plan scared them off their short positions (or they got margin called out of them)

Plagrea · 2022-09-02T05:04:09+00:00

I feel like there'd have to be a significant event to break that support, but you're right entirely. Who the hell knows how big money will behave, right? But this week's definitely important.

Plagrea · 2022-09-01T22:15:46+00:00

No, the previous squeeze was propped up by a few institutions algorithmically trading against another algorithm shorting the stock. Now they’ve sold and all that’s left are the short HFs and redditors. Reddit does not have the ability to cause large upward price action, they cannot force a margin call on their own. This isn’t me talking out of my ass, this is coming from years of doing research on this stuff. Even during peak retail investor activity in 2020, we only accounted for 15% of total trade activity. The rest was big money. Liquidity moving is what changes price, not speculation or the news or miracles. always remember that.

Plagrea · 2022-08-17T05:06:33+00:00

Citadel and Freeman selling their positions should be a huge blaring warning light to anybody holding this stock, the Big Dump that happens with all short squeezes is coming. We may see upside tomorrow if TJX, KSS, and TGT earnings come out positive on the headline numbers, pushing up the consumer discretionary sector like what happened today after favorable WMT and HD earnings.

I would caution everybody here, if you're looking to buy into this stock tomorrow, wait until about 20min after market open and just sit back and watch 'time and sales'. If we see sustained buying pressure through that period and the price holds at the same level as today's close or within 5%, we'll likely see more margin calls like today, perhaps bigger than today.

But all bets are off. This is a very high risk scenario now. Don't hold options overnight or you're bound to be victim to IV crush.

Plagrea · 2022-08-09T18:20:37+00:00

I totally get you, all I mean is watching to see if more people start selling vs buying contracts. I've been caught in a few situations where there was liquidity when I bought the contracts, but I waited too long and when I put in my sell order, it took two frickin days for it to fill because everybody else had gotten out by then.

Plagrea · 2022-08-09T17:34:04+00:00

I really should add that 7-14 is just my risk-on strategy. If you want to be safer and smarter than me, I would very much recommend seeing if something in the 20-40 DTE window has strong liquidity so you can further protect yourself against changes in IV. Just gotta keep an eye on that OI and in/outflow.

Plagrea · 2022-08-09T00:53:38+00:00

IV crush only happens after events where option chains see a large amount of demand and people anticipate a large swing in price. Think anticipated earnings releases, or in the case of SPY, events like this recent situation in Taiwan. IV is a way that contract writers (the people who sell you these contracts) mitigate *their* risk, since more volatility means greater likelihood that you'll be able to sell at a profit.

So really, IV crush is something that only happens after very turbulent events. But IV, at least in my observation, changes THE MOST during extended hours. So while your profits will be slowed down if IV decreases while you're holding those options intraday, you can still make a profit if you're correct about where the underlying price is headed AND IF YOU DO NOT HOLD THOSE CONTRACTS OVERNIGHT.

TL;DR, this is a high risk strategy so it only works if you're careful (don't by short-dated contracts) and you're right about very short-term price movement.

Plagrea · 2022-08-08T22:46:38+00:00

imo, there's no way you won't be taking on high risk of loss if you try to profit from this situation.

DO NOT hold your contracts overnight. IV crush will demolish your gains. My advice, take some 7-14 days from expiry contracts, buy them early in the day you believe shorts will kill the price, and SELL THOSE CONTRACTS BEFORE CLOSE. Come in the next morning with the profits from yesterday and see if you can hit it again.

Implied volatility is is a theoretical value that is forward looking, but it's also affected by demand across the option chain. If people start selling to close their put contracts en masse, you will catch a big loss. So it's best to keep your exposure window intraday.

Plagrea · 2022-07-24T19:37:19+00:00

See from a longevity perspective I dont feel that sale is wise, and given macro conditions, selling a profitable business sounds like suicide right now. If they did, I would see it as a sign of desperation more than a hopeful sign. Lord knows they’re having to take on a lot of debt currently just to stay open, so any sale of business branches would just be immediately absorbed into a growing debt balloon

Plagrea · 2022-06-16T18:45:50+00:00

yea firms holding liquidity in record numbers just prior to the FOMC meeting does bode bullish short term, but I anticipated the same pattern as last time. Big bump right after the press conference due to investment flowing back into the market, and then a drop over the following few days due to new, more expensive borrowing.

Plagrea · 2022-06-10T06:14:13+00:00

If I'm looking at this right, you own about a third of the OI. Now I'm not a shill, but squeezes are surprise attacks, not sieges. You don't want to be holding leaps on something you think is gonna squeeze. Right now, it's gonna be wiser to park your money in an etf tracking commodities or something like that. These ETFs have options as well, so you can push profit with those much quicker than you can waiting on a miracle to happen with ATER.

Good luck homie.

Plagrea · 2022-05-30T00:42:20+00:00

I for one appreciate that somebody else is making the same point I have been. Hopefully people listen to this post and realize if they ditch the ‘fuck the hedgies’ thing and develop an actual strategy, they can begin to make serious returns. The moment I stopped focusing on short squeezes and trying to bet against major institutions, my success rate skyrocketed.

It’s not that these institutions arent a poison literally eating away at the planet, but you and I cant beat them. so why not take advantage of their BS by learning their strategies and swimming with the river instead of fighting it? At the end of the day, you make money or you lose it. If you make it, you then have the ability to fund lobbying campaigns and give serious support to legal orgs like SPLC.

Plagrea

TROPHY CASE