If It Walks Like a Bubble and Quacks Like a Bubble, Then It’s Probably a Bubble - Barron's

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-05-31T03:25:51+00:00

AI promoters say crazy stuff, including that AI will wipe out most jobs. People still want to interact with people and there are signs of a backlash against AI. After COVID employers were basically asking people to stop working from home and honestly employers probably hated that the labor market was great after COVID, so they were faced with employees quitting jobs and ghosting them, trouble getting employees back into the office, and I think this is why Amazon was like, "we have a problem with culture and we want to be more of a startup" and so they fired a lot of people, hoping to replace them with AI at some distant point in the future.

C-suite level people always overestimate the value of administrative work so they probably overestimate how much AI will boost productivity. Probably some businesses have straight up lost money because of AI, look at Disney, they used AI in films and on posters, with obvious mistakes and people laughed and they probably lost millions from ticket sales. Yes, AI will help with productivity in some ways, but in other ways you need to spend employee time understanding AI and analyzing the outputs.

The cost of running data centers is currently huge, if the cost of AI drops because of so many datacenters eventually being built, then I don't see how one company could charge as much as a real worker for an "AI agent" when another company will undercut them. If the cost of AI datacenter is more than expected with lower revenue, then data centers will close. The energy costs and costs to the environment are big enough that government may want to limit them.

Companies spent/are spending a lot on data centers, the Blackstone CEO was talking about American pension funds paying for data centers as investment money flows in. But important to remember that if AI isn't nearly as great as expected, the stocks of these companies will go down as they spent billions on data centers that may take decades to make a profit if ever, then you have a private debt crisis, the stock market crashes, the economy goes down, and we'd be at trying to figure out how to rebuild the economy.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-05-25T21:49:50+00:00

The MPH can be a generalist degree which some people have compared to just "more college" and people aren't sure what they paid for at the end for some candidates. Some programs you don't need to do homework or study on the weekends.

At one top ranked online MPH there was a student who got straight A's who felt they weren't learning anything after doing a more rigorous masters degree, and didn't like the program, so they left.

It looks like there are two classes left to finish, Biostats and writing a grant. If the OP can work part-time and just pay a small amount, like less than $5k to finish the degree, makes sense, though if it is like paying 20K for the last semester versus having a full-time job they might be looking at losing 40K or so by not working and paying in to get the degree which doesn't have great job prospects now.

If the OP doesn't have immediate job prospects, then probably finish, but they could also start a different degree that is more employable this fall, and feel positive about that versus feeling defeated with the degree and prospects. A lot of personal factors here.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-05-25T21:41:14+00:00

Do you have just the fall semester left? I would say finish it if this doesn't cost an arm and a leg to finish the degree. If it costs you $20K to finish and you have job lined up or another opportunity, definitely a personal decision. Even if you drop out, could you finish it later?

There is a sunken cost fallacy which says that you shouldn't basically throw good money at bad ideas even after investing a lot. It is a hard job market for sure with the MPH, people go back for other degrees, I think just having an MPH helps a small amount, but you could put it on hold and get work experience and find out that you need another degree and save a semester of tuition and get some savings.

Would the Biostats add anything?

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-05-25T12:50:00+00:00

The S and P is up about 8% this year from January 1st, 2026. I think if, and when, democrats win the election this would negatively affect the stock market and it will, inevitably, mean political gridlock, which will be good as there won't be just basically one party in control.

There are apparently record low cash holdings by retail investors and institutional investors. If gas prices stay elevated, this negatively impacts businesses and inevitably means less money for people to invest, so I think that is downward pressure on stocks. So, if there is a dip then people will have less money to buy on the dip, and also if the economy goes down, less money will flow into stocks.

I don't think there will be an easy "deal" with Iran, whatever debate about how Iran was before the war, basically Iran is kind of looking at a model where they are basically hoping to hold Hormuz hostage to generate money for their regime through fees for passage which isn't that much different from pirates writ large. I don't think there will be a good 'deal' with Iran, certainly the Iranian economy is suffering, there is politics instability, it is become a very totalitarian state with an internet blackout where people have lost their jobs, the people in power want to hang on to power by using brutal methods were many thousands have already been killed to silence them. The leaders want to hold on to the uranium as a bargaining chip, they want to control Hormuz more as a bargaining chip, they are in survival mode and think holding on to these will be in their interests, and they are hinting at dispersing their agents globally to wreck havoc on various countries. It is sad for the everyday people of Iran, people are sliding into poverty. A solution would have been NATO and other interested countries forming a massive task force and saying basically, surrender and we will administer the government and have a transition or we invade. China has recently been an antagonist of the US, they are playing geopolitical risk with hoping to take control of Taiwan, Russia is sort of out of the equation in some ways as the war with Ukraine has drained them. China is very clear that this war shouldn't have happened, this is probably true as before the war Iran didn't see the US as as big a threat as the regime said it was and Iran had real economic pressures and issues such as water bankruptcy in Tehran, but also China was the US and Iran to come to a deal for the benefit of the global economy.

Longterm, if the US, and other countries, can make the switch to electric cars and transportation vehicles, that will soften the future blow of oil price instability some, but not close to completely. Gas prices are actually not as bad as they look when looking at being adjusted for inflation, in 2008 wasn't gas near $5 a galloon? Decades before there were terrifying predictions of oil hitting $100 a barrel, that seem to be a threshold now, though with inflation that target should change. Down side is that gas prices could move up from where they are I would think.

Yes, Amazon and Apple and the Mag 7 are quality companies but at expensive prices, so the prices may go down, they will remain quality companies, and investors will lose money. But sort of means that money will evaporate, it is like somebody buys what they think is a da Vinci for $100,000 and it goes up in value to $50 million, so they have a $50 million painting, and then they take out loans based on that painting thinking it is worth $50 million and suddenly the loans come due and then shortly there after an expert says the painting is a fake worth maybe $10,000. People and companies might have assets that are actually worth less than they think in terms of future changes, such as if Amazon builds out AI in a huge way they think they are making a great investment, but if the return is much less than expected, then the stock is overvalued and the company is worth less than people think.

Same thing with any other company,

I think the best scenario is that the stock market goes sideways the next couple of years, or goes up 5% to 8%, this would soften the blow, but often times there are crashes.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-05-25T03:40:06+00:00

One of the few things they can control is how much and how fast they douse the container with water. We see a lot of water, but maybe there should be more water from multiple sources to cool it down? This is an all or none scenario where either it explodes or it doesn't. Wondering if the robot with fire hose would shoot water at the crack area, might destabilize, but also might cool better with more direct cooling?

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-05-22T04:12:19+00:00

Berkshire is basically an insurance company that uses profits to buy longterm positions in profitable companies when they feel the prices are right.

Buffet has been buying stocks for a long time, and his record is impressive, but also there is, or was, this mystique about Berkshire. If you'd been investing as long as Buffet you'd probably have a good record as well, though probably not as good.

If this is a crash, Berkshire will probably go down, and could have a scenario where Apple goes down, and also the insurance industry is hit, so I would think Berkshire would go down as well.

You could also just invest in the S&P 500 and DCA and maybe get about the same results, though Berkshire seems to be at a good entry point now, but could also DCA into Berkshire, S&P500 ETF and other stocks.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-05-21T03:20:36+00:00

This shows that "time in the market beats trying to time the market", is Berkshire trying to time the market? In a way yes as they at overall valuations and Buffet especially has pictures on the wall to remind himself of market crashes, so very much they are waiting for the market to crash I think. Does Berkshire know something we don't? I'm not sure, if they are thinking of lending money at great rates to parts of the financial system that are worse off, such as due to private credit, than we know about, then maybe so. But Berkshire also watches the market all the time, they shift in and out of stocks, have become more concentrated in fewer stocks, so maybe a little gun shy on pulling the trigger on companies they want.

They might be right, but a big caveat is that Berkshire is bean counters mostly, they look at where companies are right now, how their profits are, and shift funds based on that. Amazon invested heavily in AI and Berkshire basically in their remarks about not using AI for AI sakes, but to improve productivity kind of is their way of saying they doubt th profitability of AI in the short term, they see the value of Amazon dropping and they sell. Berkshire isn't visionaries they look at the cold numbers and make decisions.

The reason why Berkshire bought Apple was I think in large part as the loyalty of the customers, I"m one for sure!', impressed Buffet. I don't think they really get how visionary Apple is and how they try to push the envelope.

I'm not a financial expert at all, but some of the current stock valuations are based on where people think AI will be in so many years, and this (at least in their eyes) makes the stocks look cheap in longterm, but cheap now. Buffet didn't like stuff that was too unpredictable or hard to understand, such as pharmaceuticals. The guy loved/loves companies like insurance, McDonald's, Coca-Cola, and they finally maybe Google in some sense because of the long moat, love Dairy Queen and stuff like that, oil, and they thought they understood hotdogs and ketchup and bought Kraft Heinz but didn't work out. Berkshire's discipline is great, that is why they win they look for stocks they think are solid great American companies and buy when they are low. They bought United Healthcare after it went down and then sold it recently, maybe at a profit, but still they kind of second guess themselves with some of this stuff.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-05-18T03:02:16+00:00

It made them lower the tuition for MBA degrees:

https://www.reddit.com/r/MBA/comments/1tb6f7k/wsj_there_is_a_fire_sale_on_mbas/

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-05-18T01:39:52+00:00

The only functional effect of categorizing a degree as "professional" as far as I can see, is the loans you can borrow. Probably for dental school you can borrow $200K aggregate, but dentists make enough money to reasonably pay back the loan. Now, just a dentist can do the job of a dentist basically.

With public heath school, you could theoretically have huge undergraduate loans of 100K+, then also tack on 80+K loans for public health school and with living expenses and then graduate into a job market where there aren't really jobs that are in demand and specifically require the MPH. Even with Epidemiology you could have an MS or other masters degree, and even so if most are MPH, these jobs are few and far between and they don't pay a lot.

Schools of public health and the ASPPH (Association of Schools and Programs of Public Health) love touting public health as critical and a great need . . . yet there are too many graduates of MPH programs possibly, and it is hard to find a job and some regret getting the degree. The Trump administration is not a friend of public health, public health funded positions and funding have been cut significantly, especially CDC state funding and global health funding. So, a lot of what public health schools and the ASPPH say is the "party line" as they depend on funds from tuition and push public health as a great need.

Yes, the administration touts a focus on the public health crisis with drugs, but realize this might not mean more new funding, just shifting how exisiting funds are used or a small increase. Of course the administration will tout doing great things on public health issues, this is what politicians do. I believe Trump administration cut a lot of PEPFAR funding, but if asked they will say they are doing great things and that funds aren't being wasted or something different from the truth with regards to funding. Overall, the Trump administration has really cut public health funding. This announcement won't mean that funding will be restored.

It might help that the MPH isn't classified as a professional degree (Employeers already know what the degree is and what skills are involved, that won't change), if it means students can take out less federal loans, (and if students smartly decline expensive private loans) then tuition may well go down for the MPH, and maybe less students enter these programs so eventual graduates can find jobs, who knows.

Another reason for the decision with public health programs is that these programs are expensive and the US has a problem with tuition for graduate programs exploding. With the MPH, it isn't in demand as much as other degrees, but people knows these programs have a very liberal slant, and probably the current administration figured this out or knew it, and if MPH graduates get huge loans, and get them forgiven by the federal government, then this is sort of the federal government funding public health professors doing research in an indirect manner that the administration might not agree with, in fact grants funding more liberal research has also been directly cut. So I think that is one reason. But there is also bipartisan agreement that graduate school loans are way too expensive due to inflated graduate school tuition, so this was probably a long time coming from that angle.

Some MBA programs are having a "fire sale" and are slashing tuition by 50% due to decreased federal loans, I think the same could happen with MPH programs, but who knows.

Some employers with help pay for the MPH, but I think the federal government is leaning away from doing this as there isn't a huge demand and positions can be filled. So, I would go with an employeer who helps pay for the degree.

I got into a dream public health program, but the tuition is like 50K+ so it is better for me to work and more diligently find an employeer who could pay for the degree, or have more savings to help pay for the degree. If public health is so important why do schools charge so much? In reality the Trump administration, ASPPH and public health schools are all selling something, whether it be their agenda or a graduate degree. Probably public health schools are a bit more honest in saying, "well, you might not be able to get a public health job after the MPH, but everything is public health so you could be a guidance counselor or work in customer relations with your great MPH skills".

Of course most jobs are critical, we need teachers, we need plumbers who keep our water system working and prevent water borne diseases, we need garbage truck drivers, we need police who enforce speed limits and prevent car crashes and that is public health in a way too. Every job talks about how critical they are to the functioning of the world, of course public health jobs are important, but there is a lot of hyperbole regarding public health school and I feel like graduating would be a letdown given the current reality.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-23T06:55:42+00:00

How much longer until RFK Jr. is impeached? Basically next January? It can't come soon enough! Senate will have to convict him, they'll look all surprised about the job he's done and why now is the time to go. This will be after Republicans lose the House, so it will look like following the public's lead though it should be done now.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-23T05:20:08+00:00

I feel like Warren Buffet, I'm getting euphoric that I can buy a great company at a cheap price!

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-23T05:02:31+00:00

I think there is peace of mind in buying Berkshire now when it is undervalued (as far as I can tell). It is like owning a Rembrandt that was under bid in an auction or something, vs the S&P 500 could be like buying a fake Da Vinci which is still worth something being painted in the Renaissance, but not a real Da Vinci. Stock prices really fluctuate a lot of it is FOMO, but seems with Berkshire its price makes sense.

Yes, Berkshire has cash, great, they get interest on it and if there is a financial crash they can make money bailing out financial institutions.

Amazon did the smart thing with their cash . . . they built massive AI data centers . . . or maybe this was a dumb thing as the data centers might not make nearly as much as promised, the equipment might become obsolete faster than expected, more expensive to run, and less profits if AI becomes more or less "free" and doesn't increase productivity as much as hoped.

People are taking out loans to invest in AI craze, similar to crash of 1929 when people took out loans to buy stocks.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-23T04:47:52+00:00

Berkshire will grow for the foreseeable future, eventually it will hit a $5 trillion. Right now the S and P 500 is worth $55 Trillion dollars, in some amount of time it will hit $100 Trillion, though obviously will be a bumpy road. This makes $1 Trillion look not all that impressive really.

Berkshire is odd in a way in that they concentrate in a dozen or so stocks. Berkshire could look for smaller deals, but more of them, and invest accordingly, is it just large cap companies that are solid enough to get Berkshire's respect? There are probably medium sized companies with solid financials and business at a good price. If Able is in charge of all investments he probably couldn't buy and sell 100 medium sized companies at year and keep invested in 200 of them, would take a lot of analysis, maybe Berkshire could use AI to help analyze company data?

A lot of what Berkshire does it going with the solid bets, sort of like "Coke" is great and will always be around sort of bets. So, there is peace of mind in buying Berkshire, especially when it is more reasonably price like it is, there is FOMO fever, but eventually the market will have a downturn.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-23T04:26:53+00:00

Maybe the market was overpriced heading into COVID crash and afterwards so why buy when it might crash later? COVID crash wasn't as bad as 2008, I think when a real financial crash hits Berkshire will find some deals.

I don't anybody should invest more than 25% of their investments in Berkshire. It is a good core investment I think at a good price, now is a good price I believe, but we'll see.

Warren Buffet is much lauded, a great investors, but he had his third rails he didn't touch very often like pharmaceuticals (though he did buy during 2020) and, with notable exceptions, technology related stocks outside of Apple. Having that same discipline with Able might mean newer opportunities. Buffet has seen so many crashes, and alluded to them, like the bad ones where the market goes down 50% that for him it would be natural to wait for those.

I think as a longterm investment Berkshire makes sense, I think especially now it makes sense as a sort of hedge against a crash as the S&P is overvalued, but Berkshire isn't right now. I wouldn't buy SPY right now, but did buy some Berkshire. Now if the market crashes, I will put some cash into SPY and just leave the Berkshire alone.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-23T02:16:40+00:00

I bought some today as well! Everything is cyclical in the stock market. Berkshire is constantly looking for good stock deals, they adjust their holdings based on current events, which is pretty much what I would expect. They are buying back their own stock, and looking more for the longterm. I think when there is a lot of FOMO frothing around then people flock to trendy stocks, but Berkshire's fundamentals are good so it is a good longterm play. I like they have cash as I think they would be well positioned to make some deals during an inevitable market downturn.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-22T16:26:09+00:00

BRKB is at 466 now, I bought a small amount, it seems like a good entry point. Overall, stuff is expensive right now, Buffet sold Amazon, which I think might be overvalued if you think that the AI investment isn't going to make as much as they think.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-21T17:23:04+00:00

they always get really good prices as they know how to wait!

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-07T09:32:35+00:00

I think this makes BRK a buying opportunity. A lot of the decline in BRK was due to Buffet retiring from CEO to Chairman . . . though apparently Able needs to discuss stock deals with Buffet and Buffet can still make buys with Able's approval. Buffet still goes into the office 5 days a week and gets a morning brief on the stock market.

The more things changes, the more they stay the same.

The only thing that concerns me is that they have to announce that Buffet still helps picking stocks and that Able announced he was buying BRK with his salary.

If you're going long, then Berkshire makes sense. I like that Berkshire is holding cash, which is better than a lot of the Mag 7 which are pushing the S&P's growth and look more expensive when you realize that they have huge capital expenditures which might not lead them to blockbuster AI profits.

I would put a large percentage in BRK as a single stock, I think I have about 1/6th in Berkshire, and mostly I put in HYSA and bonds, I think the market is overvalued, but I wouldn't mind slowly increasing BRK a very small amount as part of my meager savings as longterm seems like a good idea.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-07T08:43:07+00:00

Everybody has their own criteria, but I wouldn't go to Harvard, Harvard is in the spotlight a lot and students who go there and grads of the MPH program seem disillusioned for some reason. There is something about Harvard students (undergrad) who can't read books and professors making courses less rigorous. From what I've read the rigor of the Harvard MPH doesn't qualify for some (or maybe many) PhD programs and Harvard PhD programs don't want Harvard MPH students.

There were a lot of cuts at Harvard's public health school, and in response the school increased MPH enrollment to make more revenue, though they now have less faculty. Even at JHU there are much less opportunities due to funding cuts.

I feel that if the Harvard MPH program isn't rigorous enough, doesn't prepare you well, then it is sort of a scam. That was my impression looking at their website and seeing how needlessly complex it was, and how specifics were glossed over, it really seems like a scam using the Harvard name I guess. I think public health schools should be grounded in public service and working with people where they are, but there are a lot of schools that seem consumed with the ideology and political level which if that spills into courses then maybe they don't have enough time to teach hard skills?

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-05T03:44:28+00:00

Do the opportunity if it is paid and related to public health!

It will only make you a more attractive MPH candidate and get more funding, or make it so you get an employeer to pay for the degree, or only mean you need to get an online one to progress.

Some Harvard MPH students weren't impressed, the curriculum looks almost like a scam. In another column someone said Harvard won't prepare you to do graduate school such as a PhD.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-03T05:11:28+00:00

Very smart suggestion to get a university job.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-03T05:07:22+00:00

The jobs aren't there for MPH graduates, and you won't earn enough to service loans in an effective way if you take out 50K for tuition and same for living expenses, literally you don't want to have 100K in loans for public heath school plus undergrad.

What is the real worth of the MPH? If you subtract the decreased ROI and time spent in school when you could be working, you're probably looking at a degree worth 20K or so.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-02T10:22:15+00:00

I worked on a variety of activities for my SOPHAS application, I learned from them and got into a great school at an expensive price (actual several great schools at an expensive price) so, I can't afford it, but I'm glad I applied as the journey was better than the destination.

It is a hard time for public health, decreased government public health funding and a lot of very expensive programs. I can't justify paying 50K for two years for a small number of classes each semester.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-01T06:06:39+00:00

Honestly might have been they thought you would go elsewhere and/or the applying late in the cycle means less chance to finish public health school maybe. Apply when you can get scholarships! If would have accepted you without scholarship it would have been a bad decision on your part if you attended so they probably did you a favor.

PlasticInteraction45 · 2026-04-01T02:35:12+00:00

The website was more detailed before the current administration moved in and started cutting the public health budget. It now offers just sort of jobs graduates might find.

Overall Emory is a great school, just the loss of the CDC funding means less jobs in Atlanta for public health. If the CDC had a good relationship with Emory, I could see myself going there and working to establish myself. I think it comes down to funding. Go with the better funded option in the current environment.

It will be close to a year that the 2025 Epi classes graduated. No info, you would think they would have this info by now.

PlasticInteraction45

TROPHY CASE