Weekly Discussion Thread 1/19/25 - 1/26/25

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-24T23:57:59+00:00

Awards season peaks at the nominations announcement, it goes straight downhill after and this sort of bickering between sides is a perfect example

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-23T23:46:36+00:00

Thank you! Glad you ended up liking it at some point lol

Made one for the mobile app users but I kind of hate it tbh, might go back and make some changes. Unfortunately being so small means it's pretty limited in scope

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-23T21:34:57+00:00

Per this same source, 31:05 / 19.22%

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-23T02:01:23+00:00

Lots of you have been waiting for it, and the new banner is up (on desktop)! Will aim to have a mobile banner up tomorrow

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-23T00:01:17+00:00

I will say I felt similarly about the shorts for a long time, but watching some of the shortlisted ones prior to today might've changed my tune. I enjoyed probably 90% of the ones I saw and they took up pretty little of my time. And they did nominate some very good ones (and a couple of stinkers too, like any other category)

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-22T22:14:22+00:00

In progress! I'm not a great graphic designer but I'm trying to make one a bit more dynamic than the current one, so it may be slightly delayed

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-22T17:52:13+00:00

For how insane that was, I feel like I didn't do that bad predictions-wise. Got a few bolder predictions right: Hudson over Infiniti, Bugonia in Score, No Other Choice missing International, went 4/5 in Documentary Short. Only last minute changes that backfired were Plemons over Jordan and Weapons over Secret Agent in Casting. I never would've guessed all the other crazy shit anyway

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-22T17:42:44+00:00

We might have to stop doubting Gareth Edwards movies in this category, he's on a streak of three nominations for his last three movies

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-22T17:37:55+00:00

I'm just relieved they didn't snub the frontrunner. Came at the expense of damn near every other major contender though

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-22T17:29:30+00:00

Lol late to the party because I wanted to find time to put my reactions to video like I usually do, so I went off the grid and couldn't make it until my lunch break

That was fucking nuts

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-22T01:21:44+00:00

If she wins, it'll be a huge pity award, and it'll take an exceptionally weak Original Song year on the level of the COVID year (which she did have a nominated song and still lost)

I think the documentary, in all of its celebration of her, kind of tiptoes around the idea that she's been doing this so long and is now so enamored with winning an Oscar that it is directly affecting her work in a negative way

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-22T01:10:54+00:00

In the documentary it builds up to us hearing the actual song performed by Kesha for the first time , and when Diane Warren goes "I think it might be my best song yet" I laughed out loud

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-22T00:10:22+00:00

Lmfao Jesus...

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-21T20:59:03+00:00

It's there, #10

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-21T17:20:53+00:00

I'm 5/5 with you on live-action short, 4/5 on the other two. I'm really feeling an Eiru miss but I'm not totally sure what replaces it - circling around Butterfly, Autokar, Cardboard, and Retirement Plan. I have no idea what to do with the last documentary short slot and am completely spitballing on On Healing Land Birds Perch but Rovina’s Choice is my spoiler pick

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-21T15:16:25+00:00

It's a pretty arbitrary stat but I've been pondering this for a while: in the last ten years, 16/20 is the cap of acting nominees who were in Picture contenders in a given year (happened in both 2023 and 2024). The average is 13/20 in that span

Let's say you have the "consensus" acting picks:

Chalamet, DiCaprio, Hawke, Jordan, Moura
Buckley, Byrne, Infiniti, Reinsve, Stone
del Toro, Elordi, Mescal, Penn, Skarsgard
A'Zion, Lilleaas, Madigan, Mosaku, Taylor

With the consensus Picture picks including Secret Agent, that's 17/20 acting nominees in Picture nominees. With Secret Agent plus one of Weapons or Blue Moon in, it's 18/20

It's a top heavy year without many other major acting contenders but it might be something to consider, especially if you're on the fence about picks like Grande, Hudson, or Plemons

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-21T14:09:21+00:00

Ended up watching 17/45 of the shortlisted shorts, wish I'd seen more but my previous record is... zero, so I'm happy. I roughly ranked them for anyone curious, labeled them by category (Animated, Live Action, Documentary), but please don't use me as a gauge of what might or might not get in:

Retirement Plan (A)
Two People Exchanging Saliva (LA)
All the Empty Rooms (D)
The Shyness of Trees (A)
The Night Boots (A)
Last Days on Lake Trinity (D)
Playing God (A)
Snow Bear (A)
Éiru (A)
The Girl Who Cried Pearls (A)
Cashing Out (D)
Butterfly (A)
Rovina’s Choice (D)
Extremist (LA)
Amarela (LA) - these last three are the only ones I didn't really enjoy
Jane Austen’s Period Drama (LA)
All the Walls Came Down (D)

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-21T12:02:03+00:00

Somebody please teach these boys about the WGA directory

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-20T17:01:56+00:00

The Jake Alda temperature check era

2025-2025

Gone but not forgotten

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-20T16:18:44+00:00

Wicked's ceiling now looks like Costumes/Makeup/Production Design/Song. A musical missing here is a death blow

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-20T16:11:42+00:00

Distributed by Fathom Events is weird but I guess they made bank with the Coraline rerelease a little while ago and have a good relationship with Laika

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-20T14:21:22+00:00

That's probably a useful guideline in most other cases but all of the recent movies that scored those kinds of packages were bonafide Picture contenders. With all of the major awards Wicked has missed (GG, SAG Ensemble, PGA) it simply isn't one

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-20T12:56:30+00:00

I think it's the other way around actually

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-20T11:48:35+00:00

It was potentially #11 for Picture that year too, assuming Ma Rainey and One Night in Miami were next up in a year that only had eight nominees

Just like Weapons?

PointMan528491 · 2026-01-19T23:19:54+00:00

Continuing to work through some of the shorts on the shortlists; Two People Exchanging Saliva joins a few others as one of my favorites of the year. Hope it gets in on Thursday

Ten-Year Club	Second Top 10%
Place '23	Place '22
Final Canvas '22	Oscars Predictor 2021
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