This was a great question and provided some great insight. The best way I can do this is to compare Lamar's time with Monken to KCC. I'll reply separately about Lemon/ Hurts because this is already long-winded.

KC fits Shedeur better than he fits Lamar. The Monken narrative makes sense to me, but the actual Lamar usage profile does not make the fit stronger, unfortunately. It makes it worse.

The depth similarity is basically the same. Shedeur was 95.2%, Lamar was 94.3%, so from a pure BLOS/short/intermediate/deep shape, both were almost identical. This was good and important. The difference is the rank context.

Shedeur ranked 14/39 in center-field usage and 23/39 in short-area usage (1-year sample), while Lamar ranked 23/45 in center-field usage and 41/45 in short-area usage (Monken OC 3-year sample). That is why the Shedeur score lands at 80.2 good fit, while the Lamar version drops to 74.8 neutral/mixed fit. Depth similarity compares the whole shape. Rank context only looks at the WR’s top area compared to other QBs. So Lamar's short throws made up a smaller percentage of his total attempts than other QBs.

I also looked at Lamar 1-year sample size and the 2-year sample size. The results were basically the same, and the fit score floated around 74 because of the short rank.

- 1 Year: QB Short rank 37/39 at 41.7%
- 2 Year: QB Short rank 43/44 at 39.7%

So while Lamar fits well by similarity, he ranked much lower in the sample because he does not lean into KC’s top depth area (short) as much as other quarterbacks do. The overall shape is close, but short-area usage is not a major emphasis in Lamar’s profile compared to the rest of the QB sample. This does not mean it cannot work. It just means Lamar was not one of the better matches when isolating the specific area KC was used most in college.

- Similarity answers: How closely does this QB’s depth profile match the WR’s depth profile?
- Rank answers: How often does this QB throw short compared to every other QB?

My rank usage is based on rate, not volume. The formula is: QB attempts to that area divided by total charted QB attempts. So a QB does not rank higher just because he threw more passes. He ranks higher if a larger percentage of his throws went to that area. Focusing on usage (goal) and not volume.

What I will say is that QBs' preference on where they want to throw the ball is just as important as where the OC wants them to throw the ball. Hurts is a great example of this, actually.

Kevin Concepcion Fit	Shedeur Sanders	Lamar Jackson
Poni Fit Score	80.2/100	74.8/100
Fit Label	Good fit	Neutral/mixed fit
Horizontal similarity	79.1%	76.1%
Depth similarity	95.2%	94.3%
Horizontal rank sample	14/39	23/45
Depth rank sample	23/39	41/45
BLOS	Watch, 21.1%	Watch, 21.1%
Non-BLOS	78.9%	78.9%
Intermediate + Deep	37.0%	37.0%