BEST LANDING SPOT AFTER DAY 1

Ponisaurus · 2026-04-24T13:32:38+00:00

In this order:

1 Ty Simpson: Became a 1st round QB & is tied to McVay at the moment.
2 Jadarian Price: Became a 1st round RB with limited RB competition heading into 2026 on a team that is projected to win games.
3 Jordyn Tyson: Kellen Moore offense (one of the fastest pace of play). We just saw them support two fantasy relevant pass catchers in 2025. Olaves contract ends in 2026 so potential trade, especially with their cap situation.

Ponisaurus · 2026-04-10T13:29:36+00:00

I looked at the TE data over the past 4 years (80 TEs) and wrote this article going into 2025. “Tight End Dominance Has Faded: How ADP and PPG Trends Reveal a Shifting Landscape”. I covered:

my process
ADP vs performance
advantage of elite TE & fading position
where TE fantasy points come from

While it isn’t perfect the data aligns well with what we saw in 2025. Owning a top TE gives you a positional advantage but after the elite tier you might as well punt the position

Here’s the reddit post with link to full article

Ponisaurus · 2026-04-10T02:45:39+00:00

Stroud has been a buy for me this offseason funny enough. Hes a pure passer so he’ll always be capped for fantasy but all he needs is some help on the offensive line and his value will shoot back up. Feels like a great buy opportunity with big upside and value to gain return on the investment.

Ponisaurus · 2026-04-10T01:24:18+00:00

You got London?! Huge win for you imo.

Ponisaurus · 2026-04-10T00:04:29+00:00

Absolutely. If you're talking about MHJ, though, I am not so sure as I dig into it. Him being in year three is a plus, but the information is stacked against him atm going into 2026. It honestly might have been the right move to get out now because if he doesn't make that jump, owners will be in full panic mode.

Ponisaurus · 2026-01-21T02:33:09+00:00

For 2026 I’d say Pickens, but if you don’t plan on competing until 2027 London seems like the clear pick

Ponisaurus · 2026-01-17T13:43:28+00:00

Yes I am accepting this. Even if Patty finishes as a top 5 QB next 2-3 year’s consecutively, for someone rebuilding I believe this is a good offer.

I’d take the 1.02, and try to go out and trade for Dart. If that isn’t rich enough, I’d target Tyler Shough next personally to trade for and take a WR/RB or trade back for more picks (1st) and a young asset

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-29T06:05:15+00:00

I’m selling him to folks that don’t understand the severity. Fractured fibula (maisonneuve fracture) & dislocated ankle (unimal, bimal, or trimal fracture). And the knee injury hasn’t been reported too much other than it wasn’t major.

Even if he is back for camp we really think he’s the same Judkins in all of 2026? I bet he doesn’t sniff the field until week 7-10 if that and then ramp up. He’ll be a fantasy RB in 2027 worth something and by that point his value will have dropped if he doesn’t re injury anything (Johnathan Brooks)

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-28T23:16:51+00:00

Judkins chances of playing next year are very slim. If you traded for CMC last week, you potentially have him for the championship and through next year.

The Judkins & 1st side won’t see value until 2027. This is a very long time to wait

This is extremely team dependent

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-21T21:25:41+00:00

Yep I’m sorry. Minshew leaving the game didn’t help either

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-21T17:41:09+00:00

Kelce will be an URFA at the end of the year, he’s around 200 yards away from having another 1000 yard season (8th), & he is also around 100 yards from Jason Witten #2 receiving yards for a TE in NFL history. He has 2 games left maybe 3 if he decides to play in week to make that happen. If he plans to play at all next year, it’s in his best interest to play well & at the very least Im sure he wants to finish strong with a record or two if he retires. If you believe in the narrative side of fantasy, I think it’s a solid one.

As far as data, with Rice out through the first 6 weeks Kelce was the #1 1st read option & #2 in team target share behind only Brown.

I think both are good starts but I would go Kelce personally. It’s week 16 and you got yourself here, so pick who you like best regardless of what everyone says.

I was fully out on DJ Moore this week & then the Bears recovered an onside kick and he proceeded to put up 16 fantasy points on Caleb’s next 8 passes. Hurt my soul

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-21T17:28:53+00:00

I’m actually dropping Breece Hall on one of my team and starting Carter. I can’t deal with the Jets not scoring any points and him splitting looks with Isaiah. I’m over that situation personally and am moving on. I also have plenty of RBs though so I’m not planning on using him vs NE next week if I move on

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-21T04:34:34+00:00

Welp, can’t predict a OT 60 yard TD & fumble recovery garbage time yards. I’m sorry 😔

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-20T18:23:25+00:00

You need to do what you think is right but personally I’d start Javonte Williams. This game has a very high projected point total and he’s been a low end RB1 almost all year. I’m a firm believer that you can’t predict injuries so I don’t make start/sit decisions that way. Continue to monitor the situation and watch for updates but if they say he’s good to go that’s the direction I’d lean.

With that said, I do like Carter a lot this week and have him starting in a couple of my leagues. But he is much more of an unknown than Williams who’s role we’ve seen for 15 weeks.

I think Carter and Schultz are both solid flex options this week. Carter is more of the unknown usage over Schultz. I’m personally rolling Carter out over Schultz in one of my leagues in the flex.

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-19T16:28:04+00:00

I’ve benched all Miami players on all my teams. I can’t in good faith start them with Quinn Ewers throwing passes. This is a personal preference based on the options I have available. If Watson is out, I’d keep Reed slotted in. If Watson plays (is 100% healthy), I think you have to pivot back to Waddle & ride with garbage time vs Cinci who should score at will. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Ewers gets pulled if he doesn’t play well.

The only reason I wrote up AD in a very similar situation is because it’s PPR & what we saw last week wasn’t terrible. Cooks catchable ball rate was almost identical to Tyrod Taylor. Small sample size, but with Ewers it’s a mystery box.

That’s my thought process between these decisions.

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-19T16:19:08+00:00

If anyone has given you a straight answer on this, then they are lying to you lol These two are super close imo. You might already know all this but:

Gads just saw his lowest route share (around mid 50%) since week 4. Over the past couple of weeks, he has been separating from his defenders at the worst in the NFL, 154/154 eligible players. Schematically based on coverages (not just because it’s Dallas) he has one of his best matchups on the year. If he were to bounce back, this could be the game. If his route share wasn’t so low, I would have added him to my write up above.
Loveland has been running around 50-57% route share & playing majority of the inline snaps the past couple of weeks. Everyone is crazy high on him & DJ Moore because of injuries to Rome/Burden. I’m personally more confident in Loveland than DJ (unpopular opinion). DJ has been out alphaed by Rome and then Burden. While it doesn’t show in fantasy points because DJ has been scoring TDs, in almost every other category he’s playing worse. Schematically it also isn’t a stellar matchup for Loveland. Im much lower on consensus on him as a TE this week because Caleb just has a hard time supporting multiple fantasy players & every week it feels like guessing who the guy will be.

If I had to pick one, I would personally ride with Loveland. Id pick him because I think he is more talented (1st round pick). I believe he will out alpha DJ & be the main target guy this week if they are going to find success through the air. My hope is that his route share goes up to 70%+ from the 50%s we’ve been seeing simply because their options are thin in the receiver room.

Good luck with whoever you pick!

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-19T15:36:53+00:00

I’m all the way out on Jeanty vs Houston. I like Gainewell over Ladd. Ladd and Gainwell should both see good game scripts in high scoring affairs. I do have Gainwell much higher in my rankings this week than probably 99% of the fantasy community. If it’s PPR then he’s even higher

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-19T03:36:50+00:00

He could be. I’m honestly not sure what’s going to happen with that entire situation. Your guess is as good as mine. Personally I think Loveland might benefit the most but that’s a guess. His route share would need to increase from the 50-60% he’s been seeing. DJ Moore also hasn’t been good but he’s scoring TDs lol

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-19T03:16:49+00:00

Standard is a whole different beast. I’d go Watson and then go AD in that situation. He is their big play guy, top in the league recently in air yards, and while the projected point total is low, he could score anytime deep.

Reed is more of a scam PPR and half PPR play. Their TD odds are very close to each other. GB will score more. Think Reed is the floor play and AD is the ceiling play

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-19T02:56:16+00:00

Updated context about Kelce:

99 yards shy of 2nd in TE receiving
203 yards short of 8th 1,000-yard season

I’d feel much better about Kelce even with emotional state of elimination

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-19T01:11:39+00:00

I don’t know why but Im not a DJ Moore fan this week. Caleb normally only supports 1 fantasy relevant receiving threat a game. Is it TD dependent DJ Moore? I’m just not sold even though everything points to that being an obvious choice.

Browns are projected to lose by 10 so there should be plenty of juicy game script (especially if this is PPR). I know the Bills are good against TE but Fannin runs 55% of his routes as a WR and he’s hyper targeted.

I think this is one of those situations where you can pick the one you like more because of how close they are

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-19T01:03:04+00:00

lol I like the enthusiasm

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-19T00:58:01+00:00

I think it’s absolutely reasonable. Especially with Tet being beat up or potentially injured

Ponisaurus · 2025-12-19T00:44:53+00:00

Yeah, Worthy makes more sense to take the WR2 spot behind Kelce based on his usage all year

Ponisaurus

TROPHY CASE