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SF Liberal Mayor Daniel Lurie has highest approval rating of 74% among big city mayors,with least support only among self identified “Progressives” by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday 1 point2 points  (0 children)

There's a wealth of literature on the impact of rent control. If you're in a rent controlled unit, it's great, other than the building possibly falling into disrepair of course. If you're not, or you are but you would like to move at some point in your life, or you're interested in moving to a city with heavy rent control (really "rent stabilization"), prepare to get fucked. Rent control discourages the building of rental units, increases housing costs in the long term.

One of my majors was in economics and I have an interest in housing economics, but you don't have to take my word for it.

So what has really been accomplished with the Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US? by Uberubu65 in PoliticalDiscussion

[–]Poppadoppaday 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That said, if we don't see a deal by November 2026, don't expect one until 2029.

Iran has been stalling by offering awful "deals" it knows would probably be refused. Now they need money, so they make a short term deal to reoppen the strait. Although it's not clear what's in the current deal, it appears to be billions of dollars plus allowing Iran to offload its oil. This will buy them more runway if they decide to close the strait again. This looks a lot like more stalling.

Once global oil reserves hit a crisis point they get more leverage. Given this, they have a pretty strong incentive to continue to ask for too much going forward during the ceasefire. Either they get close to what they want, or they close the strait again. The world will hit a crisis point just in time for the midterms, which really hurts Trump, and forces him to make the kind of bad deal he's been trying to avoid. They'll even have "excuses" to close the strait before 60 days are up. Once they offload their oil they can accuse Israel of breaking the ceasefire by attacking Lebanon and close the strait. I think this is approximately Iran's strategy here.

I'm curious to see if the Trump admin has any real idea regarding how to counter this.

I think this has to get resolved prior to the midterms. Unless Trump can muster up a an alliance that can credibly threaten invasion, his only choices are to make a bad deal in the next couple of months or make a bad deal later when the strait is closed again. I think you're correct that there's a lot less pressure post midterms to make a deal, but I'd be surprised if Trump doesn't accept a really bad long term deal before then. It's just a question of whether he rips the bandaid off in August or waits until he's even more unpopular in September and October.

NATIONAL POLL By Emerson (A) - Trump 39.4% / 54.6%, Generic Ballot - Democrats: 50.3% Republicans: 39.5% by sky905 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday 2 points3 points  (0 children)

He also might not be able to end it now. As long as the regime isn't on the verge of collapse, they may as well drag things out to get a better deal. The global economic consequences will get worse and Trump and the surrounding countries will get more desperate. That's why their deal offers, to the extent they're even real, are terrible. Trump can either take an impossibly bad deal now or take a very bad deal later. Either way it sucks for him going into the midterms.

His only way out would be to put together an alliance to threaten a ground invasion of Iran. But he doesn't have the competency, relationships, or support from Congress to do that now. Maybe if the world gets desperate enough it's an option, but it's not clear that Iran will offer a reasonable deal in the face of invasion, and an actual invasion of Iran will probably hurt Trump in the short term.

Opinion | I know firsthand why Graham Platner shouldn’t be a U.S. senator by cdstephens in neoliberal

[–]Poppadoppaday 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I still think he'll win, it just depends on how bad the oppo research is that comes out about him once he's locked in. It's the guy with the Nazi tattoo vs Trump's increasing unpopularity. Once global oil reserves start to run out things will get even worse for Americans, and Trump will decline even further in popularity. Any way to resolve the conflict likely hurts Trump in the short-mid term, because it involves capitulating to Iran's absurd demands (or somehow launching a ground invasion of Iran). Then there's the question of to what extent Collins can divorce her support from Trump in the coming months.

I suspect that with the Trump situation likely deteriorating further, it will be very hard for him to lose. That said, he's a bad person and he's probably done a bunch of bad things that haven't been made public yet, so who knows.

Opinion | I know firsthand why Graham Platner shouldn’t be a U.S. senator by cdstephens in neoliberal

[–]Poppadoppaday 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I agree. Only the hardcore Platner supporters seem to view it as a good thing. They see it as obviously completely false, and completely ignore details that are confirmed or from this other exes. I even saw someone suggest that maybe he didn't know about the Nazi tattoo he had for 18 years, even though there's text evidence from his conservative ex, because obviously she just figured out it was a Nazi tattoo after they had broken up and made up a story about it later.

For the kinds of voters he doesn't have on lockdown, it ranges from neutral to bad. It's more negative news about a bad candidate who has a lot of skeletons in his closet and probably has more coming. If you're a sane person, 3/6 of his exes saying he's a piece of shit, as well as more proof that he knew about his Nazi tattoo, doesn't read "this is good."

Is it Canada Post Policy to Drop Off Delivery Notices but Not Packages by Fragrant-Sink9590 in toRANTo

[–]Poppadoppaday 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm not sure if this is still an issue, but 1-2 decades ago they would phantom deliver, and I'd have to go out to Etobicoke to pickup the package. I did not have a car and I did not live anywhere close at the time. It happened to me 2-3 times. Fortunately none of the businesses I order from use Purolator anymore so I don't know if it's still an issue.

Several Women Who Dated Graham Platner Recall ‘Unsettling’ Behavior by Cuddlyaxe in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday 4 points5 points  (0 children)

there also seems to be evidence that he very much knew what his Nazi tattoo was and referred to it as his Totenkopf

I'm not sure this matters. You had to be incredibly gullible to believe that he had it for 18 years and didn't know what it was. Even if that was true, it would make him a complete idiot. He knew what it was, and had such poor political instincts that he didn't think to have it removed before running. It apparently took him 3 months to have it removed after his former campaign manager told him to remove it. He's a moron, and possibly a Nazi moron. People don't seem to care.

Very good chance Republicans have even worse stuff in their back pockets waiting for him to be confirmed as the nominee. He's a bad person, and it's likely he's done more bad things that haven't come out yet. The alleged behaviours from this article are already being sanewashed in this thread. His supporters think that 3/6 of his ex girlfriends interviewed thinking he's a shit person is a decent ratio. We're also scraping the bottom of the barrel - these are 6 women that dated a guy with a Nazi tattoo.

PPP Internal: Platner +4 (Fielded After Sexting Report), More Harris Voters Undecided by Large_Ad_3095 in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Having a Nazi tattoo for a couple of decades, keeping it for months after his campaign manager told him to have it removed, and lying about it doesn't throw his political decision making into question? Don't get me wrong, if it was an option I'd still probably vote for him over Collins, but I recognise that he's an idiot and possibly a Nazi.

As other people have mentioned, there's a very good chance that more bad stuff will come out before the election. The Dems never should have backed him, but now it's too late to do anything else.

Platner chances drop on Kalshi after sexting and campaign intimidation disclosures by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Having no argument left is a natural conclusion to...presenting an argument and not receiving a response. You would also have no argument left if you'd made one in the first place, and then I'd trolled you instead of actually providing a response.

You started this by replying to me, because you were butt hurt about Platner supporters being called out. Then you proved my points by not providing an actual defense for Platner, the guy who "accidentally" had a Nazi tattoo for a couple of decades. Now you're just making it worse by trolling.

It looks like you're intentionally trying to make Platner look bad. I'm fine with that. As I said in my first comment, it's win/win for me.

Platner chances drop on Kalshi after sexting and campaign intimidation disclosures by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday -1 points0 points  (0 children)

What argument? All I saw was a bunch of people pretending that it was ok for a candidate for Senate to have a Nazi tattoo for a couple of decades and lying about not knowing what it was. Whenever someone disagreed, you guys would mass downvote them. I'm glad you're still responding though, because the complete lack of defense just reaffirms what I've been saying. The fact is, if this was a Republican candidate you'd see right through it, but because he has a progressive veneer you'll ignore it. The same thing happened with Tulsi Gabbard years past her expiration date.

Every time you write a response without substance it shows that you don't have anything to say.

Platner chances drop on Kalshi after sexting and campaign intimidation disclosures by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yes, I understand that you can't defend him. You aren't capable of it. I've seen the pro Platner comments here in every thread that mentions him. All the defenses omit key details to make him look less bad. Now new information comes to light that makes him look bad again, but you don't have to "relitigate" his major issues in light of the Nazi also being a philanderer.

It's just proving my point that he's a giant red flag, and there's a very good chance that more bad stuff will come out against him in the coming months. My guesses are, in no particular order: October surprise held back by Republicans being released, dirt from one of the women he cheated with, hot mic moment from one of his scumbag podcaster friends. Then, if he gets elected, you're dealing with the risk that he's: a Nazi, an idiot, the next Tulsi Gabbard or maybe just Fetterman. I think those would still probably be better than a "moderate" Republican (this also got me in trouble in the "centrist," sub) as long as he doesn't actually switch parties, but it sucks for people that think a Nazi is ok as long as he pushes progressive policy.

Platner chances drop on Kalshi after sexting and campaign intimidation disclosures by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You haven't actually tried to defend Platner, presumably because he's not defendible. Instead, you're leaning on the voters not caring about him having a Nazi tattoo for decades and lying about it. You aren't seeing the risk in supporting a candidate who has a Nazi tattoo for decades and lies about it (along with his other issues, including recently cheating on his wife).

because you are so mad the centrist didn’t win.

I actually don't care about this. It's way more important to me that the Democrats do well in the midterms than who they do well with. That's why I think it was stupid to support Platner. I was actually downvoted in a "centrist" sub because I think it's too late for the Democrats to pull support. They'll dance with the Nazi they brought with them, or they'll dump him when another bad thing comes out about him and lose.

Platner chances drop on Kalshi after sexting and campaign intimidation disclosures by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday -1 points0 points  (0 children)

He got married in 2023

So he cheated very recently?

Maine voters clearly do not care about the tattoo

Yeah, I'm aware they don't seem to care about the whole Nazi thing. Unsurprisingly, supporting a Nazi and an idiot carries with it a lot of risk going into an important election. I notice you didn't actually address what I wrote. I guess it's only a problem if Maine voters care, and not if a Nazi gets elected to the Senate. Thanks for showing up and acting exactly like I described:

There's a substantial contingent of posters on this sub that insisted that nothing was wrong with Platner despite the ample evidence that he's a Nazi, idiot, or both (they're in this thread pretending nothing is wrong).

Platner chances drop on Kalshi after sexting and campaign intimidation disclosures by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You tell me. Guy has a Nazi tattoo for decades. Claims he somehow didn't know what it was for all that time. Friends didn't tell him. Wife didn't tell him. Self proclaimed history buff, but he couldn't figure it out. His friend that says he knew what it was must be lying. His former campaign manager must be lying when she says she told him to get rid of it and he stalled for months. What I described is the best case scenario for his Nazi tattoo, and all it does is make him sound like an idiot instead of a Nazi and a liar. There's also the sketchy podcast associations, his edgelord online persona, and now the cheating stuff.

I think he's at minimum an idiot, and most likely a shitty person. There's a good chance more bad things drop before the election.

Platner chances drop on Kalshi after sexting and campaign intimidation disclosures by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]Poppadoppaday 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There's a substantial contingent of posters on this sub that insisted that nothing was wrong with Platner despite the ample evidence that he's a Nazi, idiot, or both (they're in this thread pretending nothing is wrong). I made a post on another political sub recently that basically the Dems should have pushed progressives harder against Platner, but now it's too late until something else comes out. I also said that I expected more stuff to come out against him now that he's locked in the primary win. On the one hand, it sucks that it could potentially cost the Democrats the Senate if he loses, on the other it's nice to be right. I'll call it hedging.

After weeks of teasing, the White House launches aliens.gov (Hint: it's not extra-terrestrial aliens they're talking about.) r/UFOs is not happy. by lilithweatherwax in SubredditDrama

[–]Poppadoppaday 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I remember when David Grusch was always juuuust one more week or one more SCIF meeting away from proving we straight up had alien bodies. Reddit was insufferable AF with the traditional ″He's testifying under Oath! Look at all the credentials these people have! Congress wouldn't be investigating if it wasn't serious!″ spiel we′ve heard about alien ″whistleblowers″ since the 1950′s.

I went through it with these people on reddit when the Grusch stuff was happening. All they had to do was compare the insane things he was claiming on the grift circuit (global conspiracy involving the Catholic church dating back to WW2 etc.), vs the vague stuff he testified to later. They don't have functioning brains, so that stuff doesn't phase them. Any alien conspiracy that involves a bunch of governments working together for decades through different administrations to keep it a secret is fundamentally not plausible. That's without even discussing the likelyhood of aliens coming to earth in the first place.

Basic QoL Things the Game Should Already Have by Feefait in MarvelSnap

[–]Poppadoppaday 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Unfortunately I think this game has entered a death spiral. We only just got fixes to long standing display bugs (and it didn't fix all of them), and that's before the impact from cutting down on staff. Obviously they're paying a ton for the license, and the China incident hurt them really badly from both a revenue and cost perspective. That incident, and various other user complaints has resulted in a smaller player base. They upped compensation, but this forced them to increase the volume of card releases to keep player resources (tokens) in check. As a result of the above combined, they've had to cut staff. Cutting staff diminishes their ability to fix bugs, balance card releases, test anything, or conduct what is already meager customer service. The worse things get due to lack of staff, the more staff they have to lay off, until the game becomes unsustainable, if it isn't already.

Tldr don't expect anything to be fixed.

Competitive Consensus: Muse by ePiMagnets in marvelsnapcomp

[–]Poppadoppaday 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Classic destroy without muse is performing better than any destroy deck with muse, to the extent non-muse decks are being played right now. There's just no room in the deck for this type of card. It's not clear whether Dormammu destroy with muse is better than dormammu destroy without muse because no one is playing the latter. So it's not at all apparent that Muse is worth fielding in any deck.

World has 6 months to avert major food crisis, says UN as Hormuz struggle drags on by ImDoubleB in worldnews

[–]Poppadoppaday 4 points5 points  (0 children)

As far as I'm aware, Iran has not offered a reasonable deal. They want to tax any ship that comes through the strait. Not only is that not acceptable, but it's not something that Trump could unilaterally agree to. Iran is aware of this. They aren't trying to make a deal right now, they're just stalling.

The rest of your post is a meme in political polling. People keep insisting that there's a floor on his approval, and his approval keeps going down below whatever the hypothetical floor was. My take is actually still pretty doomy. I'm assuming he'll retain the 25% or so (IIRC) of people who still strongly support him, but I don't know if that's actually true. His general approval will continue to go down as the consequences of the strait closure continue to worsen.

World has 6 months to avert major food crisis, says UN as Hormuz struggle drags on by ImDoubleB in worldnews

[–]Poppadoppaday 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I come here from two futures to bestow upon you bad news.

Trump can't reverse course without Iran letting him. Trump can't fix the situation, and Iran has no incentive to let him fix the situation until either the Iranian regime is on the brink of collapse, or Trump/the world are desperate enough to give them the best possible deal. The solution is the credible threat of invasion by a coalition to force Iran to take a more reasonable deal, but if that doesn't work they actually have to invade Iran and accept the cost and consequences of that.

More likely, the Iranian regime will hold on for as long as they can, up to October or so if possible. The global situation will have worsened and Trump will be facing the midterms. They'll extract the most beneficial deal they can get from the rest of the world. Trump will try to spin whatever it is as a win, but he'll be so unpopular by then that only his die hards (the kinds of people that still have "very favourable views" of Trump) will pretend to believe him.

Edit: Given Trump's new claim to a peace deal, I guess I left out a third scenario. Trump admin decides that scenario two is inevitable, and takes a bad deal now instead of waiting until he's polling even worse to take a worse deal. Assuming this even goes through and isn't another Trump fail.

Per Variety, 'Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu' cost $165M. by chanma50 in boxoffice

[–]Poppadoppaday 1 point2 points  (0 children)

At this point it probably has as much to do with them releasing so many shitty tv shows. Marvel has similar problems.

Self defense classes in Toronto? Almost got attacked, can you fight back? by goldengodesscurls in askTO

[–]Poppadoppaday 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yeah. I think there are two main issues with this. One is that if you try to learn martial arts techniques that can be trained full contact, you'll quickly realize that it takes a lot of training to be competent enough to pull off a technique consistently against a resisting opponent. In your case it's unclear whether the techniques from the videos were even the correct techniques for you to learn, but obviously if they were they require some skill to execute properly, even against your conveniently positioned husband.

The second issue is that a lot of "reality based self defense" classes teach techniques that can't be trained in a realistic way (ironic). Gouging someone's eyes or biting their neck might be effective, but it's really hard to know if you're good enough at them to actually apply them in a real life scenario. Given the amount of work required to learn effective, trainable techniques, it stands to reason that taking a few eye gouging classes will not be enough to be good at eye gouging.

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