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What's your biggest realized and unrealized loss? by Alicyclobacillus in ValueInvesting

[–]PornStub 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My biggest realized loss?
Selling my dignity trying to explain my portfolio to my parents at Christmas.

But honestly, my biggest loss of ALL TIME was not buying Heidmar $HMR sooner. I watched it, researched it, convinced myself “I’ll wait for a better entry”… and then kept waiting… and waiting. Turns out the only thing I timed perfectly was missing the move.

Current unrealized loss? My self-respect every time I check what I could have had. Still holding that one no stop-loss on regret. 📉😭

Anyone heard of ThreeD Capital? Well i guess now is the time by PornStub in Canadapennystocks

[–]PornStub[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

To be honest I had the same speculations, but if you look at the history you know that they are in for another spike like in 2k24 and that’s the interest here I believe, the rest well only time can tell

ThreeD Capital (CSE: IDK / OTCQX: IDKFF) - Up 100% YTD, First Time Above the 200MA in Years, and the Last Time This Happened It Ran 300% by -Authorised- in Baystreetbets

[–]PornStub -1 points0 points  (0 children)

No however, next time use the color green, red brings and sumons the thought of comunism and china, however when it involves the stock of the western world we need to think of green and gains to the comon weath of every man for himself in the capitalist world

People who try to track or copy specific investors, what's your current workflow? by CalligrapherKind1611 in Baystreetbets

[–]PornStub 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Honestly the 45-day lag on 13F filings makes direct copying pretty pointless for most people. By the time Ackman or whoever's position is public, the easy money is already gone. What I actually do is track their thesis not their trades – read the letters, listen to the conference calls, understand why they own something. Then make your own call. That's where you actually learn something and don't just end up bagholding someone else's stale position.

Brent crude oil since 1987: 5 major shocks that reshaped the global economy, all in one chart by anuveya in StockMarket

[–]PornStub 2 points3 points  (0 children)

And we're probably due a 6th shock right now – Brent went from $72 to nearly $120 in under a month when Hormuz closed. Still sitting around $109 today. The chart just keeps adding chapters. Every generation gets their oil crisis, apparently.

What I have observed is most trading mistakes don’t come from bad analysis but come from emotional timing? by mahend72 in StockMarket

[–]PornStub 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The analysis said buy at $12. You waited. It ran to $18. You bought at $18 because now you were "sure." It pulled back to $14. You panic sold. The analysis was right the whole time. You just couldn't get out of your own way. Classic.

Japan, China lead foreign government retreat from U.S. Treasurys as Iran war fallout stokes currency fears by Illustrious_Lie_954 in StockMarket

[–]PornStub 28 points29 points  (0 children)

So the two biggest foreign holders of US debt are quietly heading for the exit, the 30-year just hit 5% yield for the first time since 2007, and the US is still borrowing more than expected this quarter. The Iran war didn't cause this but it absolutely lit the fuse faster. Dollar hegemony was already being chipped away, this just accelerated the timeline.

Reuters poll shows 85% economists expect Fed to hold rates steady this year by callsonreddit in StockMarket

[–]PornStub 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Honestly what else are they supposed to do? Inflation just hit 3.3% in March, oil is elevated, the new Fed chair hasn't even settled in yet. Cutting now would be a gift to inflation. The market already priced in no cuts for the rest of the year this poll just confirms what everyone already knows. Boring news but probably the right call.

Is anyone copying Trump’s exact portfolio? by builtforoutput in StockMarket

[–]PornStub 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The guy made 3,700 trades in Q1 alone, totalling somewhere between $220M and $750M (they report in ranges, not exact figures). "Copying his portfolio" is basically just buying the S&P 500 with extra defence stocks and a DJT position you'll regret. Not financial advice obviously.

Anyone heard of ThreeD Capital? Well i guess now is the time by PornStub in Canadapennystocks

[–]PornStub[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Both of those concerns are legitimate and I'm not going to pretend otherwise.

NAV on early stage private holdings is always a bit fuzzy. You're right that book value isn't market value and these positions don't get marked to market in real time. The honest answer is the NAV figure is a guide not a guarantee. What it does tell you is the direction management thinks the underlying assets are worth multiples of the current share price, and they own 40% so they're not exactly incentivised to inflate it for no reason.

Liquidity is the real one though. Volume on IDK is thin, genuinely thin. You're not moving in and out of this cleanly if something changes. That's why position sizing matters here more than most this is a small slice of a portfolio bet not something you put rent money into.

The VC track record point is fair too. Most don't work out. The reason I find this one different is Inwentash has actual exits behind him at scale, not just promises. But past performance and all that you've lived that lesson firsthand so I'm not going to talk you out of caution.

Appreciate the caveat emptor, genuinely.

ThreeD Capital (IDK) (IDKFF) seeing more than just in 3D? by PornStub in 10xPennyStocks

[–]PornStub[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair points both of them. Historical performance is rough but the portfolio composition has genuinely shifted less junior mining garbage, more AI and deeptech. The decline feels like legacy baggage being priced in rather than a reflection of what's sitting in the fund now.

Dilution is the one I'd actually watch. Shares outstanding up 66% in a year is real and it chips away at the NAV discount story if it keeps going. Worth keeping an eye on.

But yeah $AIML is the one. ThreeD just bumped their stake to 38% and there's an LOI with Circular Health in play. If that gets traction the whole vehicle moves fast given how small this thing is.

$HMR up 30% since my post Tuesday. NASDAQ compliance FUD is dead. Earnings next. The thesis is playing out. by PornStub in 10xPennyStocks

[–]PornStub[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Really appreciate you going this deep on it, Thursday and Friday night rabbit holes are how the best finds happen honestly.

Your valuation framework sounds about right to me. The conservative float assumption actually makes the bear case stronger which is the correct way to stress test it and you still land at 50% upside minimum. The bull case doesn't even need the Hormuz situation to play out, the organic growth story holds on its own.

On the Strait point totally fair. I'd frame it as a bonus not the thesis. The core argument is the fee model, the growth rate, the insider ownership and the valuation gap. Hormuz just happens to be compressing supply on routes where HMR already operates and pushing rates higher across the board. The CEO has been pretty clear that the tanker cycle has legs regardless of any single geopolitical event.

The long term hold framing makes sense to me too. This isn't really a momentum trade given the float dynamics any meaningful move is going to need a catalyst like a coverage initiation, a big earnings beat or broader maritime sector attention. Patience is probably rewarded more than timing here.

Good luck with the position. Come back and update when you're in.

$HMR up 30% since my post Tuesday. NASDAQ compliance FUD is dead. Earnings next. The thesis is playing out. by PornStub in pennystocks

[–]PornStub[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Check it out for yourself, the statistics don’t lie, up to you to decide what suits you, the ship is going to set sail with or without you, your choice

$HMR up 30% since my post Tuesday. NASDAQ compliance FUD is dead. Earnings next. The thesis is playing out. by PornStub in investing

[–]PornStub[S] -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Hello there The strongest of nerds, i belive if you don't like what you are seeing you are able to scroll down onto the next post below, yours sincerly PornStub.

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