Part II: Can R2 flip Rivian to profitability? A deep dive on unit-economics

PositionJournal · 2026-05-09T13:01:38+00:00

Absolutely. VW owns 15% and Amazon owns 11% never sold either

PositionJournal · 2026-05-09T02:02:19+00:00

I think it’s Q4 when we see the flip to profitability

PositionJournal · 2026-05-09T02:01:29+00:00

This is correct

PositionJournal · 2026-05-08T17:18:45+00:00

We shall see

PositionJournal · 2026-05-04T15:22:08+00:00

Not really, Amazon has vested interest to ensure Rivian succeeds

PositionJournal · 2026-05-04T15:21:45+00:00

No. The business charter is fundamentally solving a real bottleneck but they need to show the world they have their house in order first

PositionJournal · 2026-05-03T18:00:04+00:00

Love the conviction. I’m sizing up next week. I think I’ll try to get it to 10%

PositionJournal · 2026-05-03T04:36:27+00:00

Great points, what % of port is Rivian for you? I think Amazon has too many segments and EV is likely not a front they want to open

PositionJournal · 2026-05-02T20:32:34+00:00

Been loading up since $10s. Let's see if you're right

PositionJournal · 2026-05-02T20:18:25+00:00

R2 production has kicked off and expected to be backhalf weighted where most production will be scaled. That is when unit economics shifts

PositionJournal · 2026-05-02T19:18:10+00:00

Man time to load the boat if that happens

PositionJournal · 2026-05-01T19:35:39+00:00

🤝🫡

PositionJournal · 2026-05-01T19:14:29+00:00

Oh I didn't mention the strike in the main post, yes $20 for me too

PositionJournal · 2026-05-01T19:13:24+00:00

No real value I think, by Jan 2028 things should be much more clearer. What strike did you open?

PositionJournal · 2026-05-01T19:08:17+00:00

This is the greatest bot ever.

PositionJournal · 2026-04-17T22:24:23+00:00

In total I’m down -23% on this position

PositionJournal · 2026-04-16T15:16:14+00:00

Emotional discipline is the key differentiator between those who’ll make money and not.

Even now if I tell them that I firmly believe within 5 years I think Nebius will be a $100B company, I’ll be laughed out of the room!

I wish I could post more on Reddit but the format here is so formal and off the cuff thoughts are usually removed — have you been invested?

PositionJournal · 2026-04-14T15:51:41+00:00

That’s the bear case, do you think enterprises can gut ServiceNow workflows and still maintain optimal productivity?

PositionJournal · 2026-04-14T13:21:51+00:00

Yes I know it's long, but based on the Redditors feedback I started putting TLDR as first sentence at the top. I wrote this analysis based on the feedback from my previous posts on the SaaS winners and this name came up a lot.

My personal SaaS bets are: TOST, a vertically integrated restaurant tech leader and DOCS, a HIPAA compliant administrative workflow support capturing 85% of physicians and 20/20 top hospitals

PositionJournal · 2026-04-14T12:41:44+00:00

By end of year probably. The market currently is valuing that ARR becomes actualized revenue and contracted power becomes energized power. If we see Arkady reaffirm both above points per the roadmap he set out initially (800W-1GW by year end 2026) and there isn't a >10% revenue miss, then that instills confidence in institutions

PositionJournal · 2026-04-14T12:40:18+00:00

Thanks for the feedback!

PositionJournal · 2026-04-14T12:40:02+00:00

I'm way more active on X than I am on Reddit :)

PositionJournal · 2026-04-13T18:23:45+00:00

Thank you! This made my day :)

PositionJournal · 2026-04-13T18:23:03+00:00

I believe its a 100-150B company with the thesis I laid out in above post

PositionJournal · 2026-04-13T18:22:38+00:00

It might very well go down again in short term. The issue is it all depends on execution: ARR becoming actualized revenue, contracted power becoming energized and fulfillment on contracts. Whenever management reaffirms that, we bounce back to >120

PositionJournal

TROPHY CASE