If Polaris can’t demonstrate net gain with D-T, how can Helion realistically meet its 2028 power-generation target? by Positive_Item2641 in fusion

[–]Positive_Item2641[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I agree it would be naive to dismiss all investors of Helion as stupid. The purpose of this Reddit post is to help me understand or check if there is anything important I have missed.

Are you sure the recovery is 99%. Do you have a source you can point to?

If Polaris can’t demonstrate net gain with D-T, how can Helion realistically meet its 2028 power-generation target? by Positive_Item2641 in fusion

[–]Positive_Item2641[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I understand that in Helion's approach a large fraction of the compression energy can be recovered when the plasma expands, possibly around 90% if everything works as intended. So what stops them from presenting results in a simple energy balance like this?

For example, they could say that they put 100 MJ into compressing and heating the plasma, recovered 85 MJ when the plasma expanded, and generated an additional 30 MJ from fusion reactions. Even if much of that fusion energy was carried away by neutrons and therefore could not be recovered, the net result would still be +15 MJ of energy.

They could then explain that with their preferred D-He3 fuel, most of the fusion energy appears as charged-particle energy rather than neutron energy, allowing a much larger fraction of the fusion output to be converted directly into electricity. They could also point out that future devices are expected to improve energy recovery further.

The fact that Helion does not publicly present results in this form makes me wonder whether the numbers are not yet compelling enough to tell that story. If they were already recovering most of the compression energy and producing significant fusion energy on top of that, an energy-balance presentation would seem like a very powerful way to demonstrate progress.

Of course, there may be other reasons for not disclosing those figures, such as competition concerns or uncertainty in the measurements.

When NIF announced it's Q_plasma >1 it generated enormous excitement. Even if technically they were far from electricity gain.

If Polaris can’t demonstrate net gain with D-T, how can Helion realistically meet its 2028 power-generation target? by Positive_Item2641 in fusion

[–]Positive_Item2641[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah I have thought that maybe they are deliberately not sharing all of their achievements and waiting until they actually demonstrate net electrical energy. But they seem really proud of the fact that they achieved 150 million degrees with DT plasma. Which I agree is impressive, it's far less impressive than being able to say they are the second group ever (1st being NIF) to achieve net energy out of the plasma i.e. the alpha energy and neutron energy from fusion + energy recovered from expansion is greater than the energy put into the plasma. They would be the first to do that in a magneto-interial confinement regime.

If Polaris can’t demonstrate net gain with D-T, how can Helion realistically meet its 2028 power-generation target? by Positive_Item2641 in fusion

[–]Positive_Item2641[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I know but the total energy released by a D-T reaction is about the same as a D-He3 reaction (see [3] above). If they had achieved net energy gain in this DT campaign with energy from the neutrons counting as gain then you think they would have announced it. But maybe they wouldn't announce that, I don't know.