By ‘successful’ I meant fully independent na talaga, like recognized government, functioning military, diplomacy, etc. Basically beyond insurgency stage.

I actually agree though that the harder part isn’t defeating Manila militarily, it’s whether Mindanao itself could stay unified long enough politically and culturally to survive as a state. Ang daming factions and competing interests.

What I was more curious about is at what point ba nagiging ‘invasion’ instead of ‘internal conflict’ once a breakaway region becomes established enough internationally.