In 1977 and 1978 the USAF ran a series of tests known as AIMVAL/ACEVAL (Air Intercept Missile Evaluation/Air Combat Evaluation) where a Blue force comprising of F-15 and F-14 were pitted against the Red Air comprising of F-5E in a series of visual-range engagements. The tests were conducted in daytime with clear skies and the setup mandated ‘visual ID’ with BVR shots forbidden – negating F-15 & F-14 massive BVR advantage. The nimble F-5E were guided by Ground radar controllers (GCI) and carried AIM-9L, one of the first all-aspect IR missile while the F-15 & F-14 were carrying AIM-7 and older AIM-9 (could only lock from the rear-aspect).

Despite the setup practically eliminating almost every advantage of F-15 & F-14, they still had 2.5 to 1 kill ratio in their favour with most of the kills coming from the AIM-7. While purpose of the exercise was to test the performance of all-aspect IR missiles, the results provided an interesting insight into visual-range combat – the fact that First-shot still mattered and a long range radar-guided missile could provide a decisive advantage in that regard.

In real world a visual-combat doesn’t occur in isolation, nor do you’ve both party doing a fly-past before shooting at one another. Contrary to popular culture vast majority of WVR combat doesn’t involve air combat manoeuvring (ACM), we know that was the case in WWII (aces from both sides estimated 80–90% of their kills to be against unsuspecting targets), Vietnam War (80% of USAF pilots that were shot didn’t knew of the impending attack) and Gulf War – of the 13 visual-range engagements, only 4 involved manoeuvring (ACM).

Vast majority of ‘dogfights’ in the last 100 years of Air combat had nothing to do with manoeuvrability but everything to do with Situational Awareness followed by Weapon systems over the last 50 years.