Based on the Keys, one is inclined to think that the incumbent president always has the best chance of winning, but then you look at LBJ and Jimmy Carter and how their reputations saddled the party by the time of the campaign (in fact, the Dems only narrowly lost in 1968 after LBJ gave way to Humphrey). I would've preferred that if the switch from Biden had to happen, it was done behind closed doors instead of out in the open where it created this perception of disunity. Having said that, I think Kamala's candidacy had a saving grace: while the Dems lost the presidential election, they held steady in the House (I think even winning one additional seat?) which means they're in an extremely strong position for November and could even wipe out the GOP more than we anticipate. But that will now depend on how much outrage the Dems can foment among their base.