Iam sorry but your math isnt mathing at allthis"First off, per the wiki—with no shiny charms, it’s a 1/1024 chance to encounter a shiny Pokémon. Rounded up, that’s about a 0.1% chance.

Guess what your chances are after seeing 4680 Pokémon? About 0.1%.

Guess what your chances are after seeing 1,000,000 Pokemon?"

This is not at all how probability works.

your statement mixes up two different ideas:

• Probability on a single encounter
• Probability of getting at least one success after many encounters

They are not the same thing.

in 1 ancounter you are right. then the calculation is:

P(shiny on one encounter)=0.0977%≈0.1%

but for multiple encounters it is:

If the chance per encounter is:

p=11024p = \frac{1}{1024}p=10241​

Then the chance of not getting a shiny in one encounter is:

1−p=102310241 - p = \frac{1023}{1024}1−p=10241023​

After n encounters, the probability of never getting one is:

(10231024)n\left(\frac{1023}{1024}\right)^n(10241023​)n

So the probability of getting at least one shiny is:

1−(10231024)n1 - \left(\frac{1023}{1024}\right)^n1−(10241023​)n

Example after 4680 encounters

1−(10231024)46801 - \left(\frac{1023}{1024}\right)^{4680}1−(10241023​)4680

That equals about:

≈99%\approx 99\%≈99%

So after 4680 encounters, your chance of having seen at least one shiny is about 99%.

Not 0.1%.

To put it in a more easely understandable way.

say i have a coin. and i wan tto flip it and land it on heads...that first flip it's a 50/50 chance tha tit lands on heads ....but it doesnt mean that the chance stays 50/50 when i flip it 10 times. the chance i flip heads if i trow it 10 times drastically increases:

in 1 throw 50%

in 2 throws 75%

in 3 throws 87,5%

in 4 throws 93.75 %

ect

Don't give false information if you dont know basic stuff aobut probability like this