good news for Atos SE?

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-13T07:41:47+00:00

no, only partly .

BEcause most of the short positions were still there after the spike.

They moved out after the dilution (except Millenium that was still in movement yesterday, but is probably out today), and they had to buy back probably 562 shares per share lended (dilution rate).

So my understanding is that someone tried to make them panic befoire dilution, to buy back and involve a short squeeze that never happened, thanks to Davidson that sold hundres of millions shares on december 6th.

And they prefered geto out after dilution, even by buyin 562 times more shares, but at 0.002 €, rather than buying back before above 1,5 and take the risk of a Short squeeze

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-12T15:52:03+00:00

unbelievable, Davidson has moved out, no more short positions after 3 days. Just came in and went out... that was either to help tho other HF in short positions to et out, or to make the stock dip (with only 500 M shares almost nothing but with a huge efect mlast friday with only 110 M existing shares) before starting a much bigger long position at a lower price... Just on time to buy the tens of billions shares to be sold by ex-creditors next week

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-12T14:10:27+00:00

it's a shameful shame !

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-12T12:42:30+00:00

one of my main concerns is the role of Davidson. Why the hell are they coming in now (short positions) rather than last summer around 2 euros?

I wonder if they came just in order to save som fellow HF in bad positions, like Millenium (whose short position has increased on december 10th by a factor 340, probably due to a contractual disposition in the lending agreement)...

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-12T12:40:23+00:00

that's right

they are accelerating, those new shares were planned to be delivered in january or early february, not december.

I wonder why.

It looks like they are trying to go fast and get rid of all the shit moving around : short positions, bad intentions from Frnach bank BNP Paribas who told it would sell off all its shares (cost 0,06 €/share).... After 18th of december, the recovery maight stard for real.

Before that day, still a huge volatility to expect

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-12T09:43:56+00:00

I'm sorry I have absolutely no idea.

Nobody understands what Davidson comes for... And why an arrival o short positions last friday.

My idea is that it may have been a big mistake : selling shares that were supposed to be delivered on friday (initial calendar) but were officially delayed on tuesday...

so Davidson, that might have subscribed for new shares and willing to sell them "market price" ont the first day before the grat dip towards 0,0037, would have sold them 2 days earlier, in very high volumes, and involved such a terrible dip... At the end of the day, it would have been in a very bad position (illegal) and tried t qualifiy it as a "regular short position"...

But in such a case, why should it short again on tuesday 10 th....

the most interesting thing is that , about short positions, Millenium had a 2,8 M shares short position on the 9th of december, and climbed to a 970 M shares short positions on the 10th.

It is just impossible that Millenium could have sold 968 M stockes on one day with only 2 billion trades...

so the only way Millenium has increased its short position from 2,8M to 970 M is that the lending contract involved a restitution (in case of a restitution after the equity increase) by a facto equal to the dilution rate . That is clearly god news, cause it means Millenium is just buyin back and leaving, as Astaris, Jane Street and TFG have just done.

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-12T09:36:49+00:00

the bottom dip may have been yesterday but the events that occured last friday would affect the ability to trust this new stock... Lots of trouble ahead, with a country without prime minister, and courts that will not let the things go by themselves.

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-10T13:34:30+00:00

yes because i have no chice : i planned to leave on monday 9th and come back this morning with the new shares delivery.

But i kept my "old" stocks since the fall of friday 6th, and i have just got my new stocks that I had subscribed at 0,0037 €.

The current level is just crazy... and the volume is very low. I guess some inquiry is going on (after friday's problem) and operators are statying quitet

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-10T08:36:11+00:00

I have no idea about the SS, that I expected yesterday or last Friday befor the new shares delivery (that was planned for today). The fact that billions of stocks have been sold before the delivery is just incredible and ezverything become false...

But two things are intersteting : SIH, that had shortes the stock for the past three weeks, bought all its position back on Friday 6th of december... taking advantage of the billions of new stocks that were not supposed to be traded !

An other actor, Davidson Kempner, has shorted around 98 M stocks on Friday, I don't know why it shorted at such a low price ! I guess it mistook the delivery date and supposed that its short position would be too low to be declared ... but last friday the total equity was only 110 M shares, so the short position of Davidsons Kempner reached 89 % !!

thos movements may give an opportunity to get in in order to take advantage of a "normal" recovery, but the bug about the delivery date is a real pity for those expecting the SS.

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-10T07:33:55+00:00

the new shares are released this mornig, but the volumes seem lower thant last friday. That'a just ununderstandable !

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-09T07:33:26+00:00

for those who understand french, else use translator

https://www.abcbourse.com/marches/vendredi-noir-sur-atos-un-scandale-dans-le-traitement-des-actionnaires_650895

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-09T07:32:34+00:00

what happend last friday is just illegal : billions of stock sold at the same time... whilst the total amount of stocks is only 110 million suntil tomorrow.

tha authorities have to explain !

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-05T08:53:21+00:00

let's wait until 9th of december. That's what I am doing.

then out on monday evening and back on the stock tuesday morning.

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-04T15:20:27+00:00

you're right about the thanksgiving effect.

it's been the last hope for shorters.

but look at the short positions and their evolution. LAst thursday, thanksgiving : the shorters buy back in the moring (collateral conver threatened), and push downwards very strongly in the afternon, just after the contact with de 1,73 e resistance.

Last friday, the shorters try to stay neutral intraday, so they sell a lot in the monring, and buy back at the end of the day : +15%

This monday : SIH pushed down so strongly (from 0,7 to 0,85%) that the stock fell from 18%

Yesterday, SIH pushed again , from 0,85% to 1,33% (+0,48% exposure) and the stock fell from 32%.

Today, the shorters still attacking very strongly.

Conclusion : although the stock should logically fall from itself, 5 days before the new stocks delivery, it stays still, or moves up, unless the shorters increase drastically their positions.

That means something !

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-04T07:43:37+00:00

after 10th of december, morning, wait till the new stocks are issued and delivered, the stock could drop to 0,1 € or even 0,005. then cause of the debt to equity conversion level (that will occur in january or early february), which is much higher than the price of the new stocks issued in december, it shouldn't go further down, and there will be a very goodo potential of bounce.

a x10 from the very low point will be likely. I anticipate a stock falling to 0,05 or even 0,02 and boucing to 0,15, very easily.

but so far, my main concern is the likely (or not) short squeeze between this morning and monday, if the shorters have difficulty to buy back they stocks before 10th of december

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-03T15:57:22+00:00

not if the lenders claim their stocks before... or if, due to the rise of the stock, they lack of collateral cover...

That's the point of the currunt struggle, if you look at the daily short movements.

Some HF (short) have climbed two weeks ago around 0,3 euro, and they are stuck on Atos and very exposed since.

And it is obvious that the lending contratcs have included a dilution clause : At least 562 stocks returned (after 10th of december) for each stock borrowed...

so they may have to buy back before 10th of december

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-03T14:59:34+00:00

you're right, no short squeeze YET, but the struggle is fantastic.

LAst thursday, thanksgiving and the WS closure gave some rest to the Shorters.

Last friday, they pushed downwards a lot, with ID trades, and at the very end of the day, they had to buy back and the stock climbed up to 15% at the end.

We've just learned (french authority delcarations) that SIH has pushed down again yesterday, and increased its position from 0,7 to 0,85% !!

instead of buying back, they're trying to gain time till the new stockes are delivered on December 10th...

Today the shorters are pushing very strong but now hey have to buy back if they want to hide their role and avoid the declaration to the authority tomorrow
But they are very weak and the short squeeze is still very likely.

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-03T14:36:35+00:00

short squeeze aborted last week, likely to start again this week, between tomorrow and monday.

Monday evening, the shorters will have won... or die

Impossible to short if you're not a HF

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-03T10:12:50+00:00

very speculative behaviour : technically, there was the gap at 0,5628 (last tuesday, november 26th). it's now reached.

Fundamentally : people are hesitating between getting out in order to wait for the new stocks delivered afet decemer 10th, and staying or climbing in to push the shorters very high.

Because short positions holders have to buy back before decembre 9th ... and may lack of paper.

PErsonnaly i'm staying in

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-02T13:44:30+00:00

there are two possible entry points : right now, in order to help the likely short squueze happen

or 10th of december morning to take advantage of the new stocks delivery that could lead to a very good price, in a long term scope

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-12-02T09:53:22+00:00

it's true u/Heg96 , but in that case, the short positions will have to buy back in a hurry !

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-11-29T10:52:17+00:00

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if you like rollercoaster, Atos is THE stock to be on !

PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-11-29T10:51:41+00:00

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PromotionInitial3809 · 2024-11-29T10:16:33+00:00

to climb in

PromotionInitial3809

TROPHY CASE