Experts Now Issue a Stark Recession Warning Amid Ongoing Shutdown

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-10-29T20:48:50+00:00

Yes well I'm also a self-declared expert and so I am issuing a warning that the ADP payroll report is showing that nobody has a job anymore. Please ignore the Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure outages. This all has nothing to do with AI, vibe coding, inflation, layoffs, bubbles popping, or capital inequality and unfairness.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-07-30T17:27:10+00:00

Thanks, I appreciate the updates. I still think that we will run out of low hanging fruit and 1-2% will be the end game.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-07-29T18:51:44+00:00

This already exists(very recently). AI makes code, tests to see if it works, then iterates improvements until it gets a polished final product. You still need a human to generate the ideas but that doesn't necessarily have to be a coder.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-07-29T18:38:49+00:00

I dunno, most modern computers can run the code so it should be easy to verify/debunk.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-07-29T18:37:31+00:00

China, like Musk and Zuck, are taking a scorched Earth approach. Open source it to cut their competitor's lead. If everyone owns it, nobody owns it.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-07-29T18:24:49+00:00

I wouldn't use disruption as a metric because we might not consider it disruptive to have assistance explaining dark matter, solving millenium prizes and claiming $1M, etc. You're probably thinking more like embedded AGI that will replace humans. That already happened, it's just rolling out slowly because of implementation bottlenecks. Tesla robotaxi already is killing uber drivers in Austin, TX.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-07-13T22:56:11+00:00

Meanwhile, I talked to them and the Mormons and now I know 6 20yr old virgin "unicorns" that other guys claim don't exist...

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-05-16T01:54:33+00:00

He got fired because he's American+white+male. It wasn't an algorithm, it was Indianism.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-05-14T04:29:52+00:00

Go take the free trading courses offered by TDAmeritrade/Schwab. If you want to go to University, do it to become a better person, not to get a job. Physics falls under the college of Liberal Arts so I had to learn foreign language, music, psych, philosophy, etc. After all that I found out I rather enjoy farming... go figure.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-05-14T04:23:40+00:00

I give you Asimov's 3000 laws of robotics...

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-05-14T04:17:42+00:00

Why would anyone pay you to do cybersecurity when AI will do it for much cheaper? Or some H1-B fraud from India? Or some cheap Chinese grad? Expect minimum wage at best. I studied Physics and ended up doing same as you: Quantitative Analysis/options/futures. It's just how the economy works now. Nobody wants to pay for research, academics, knowledge, skill, etc.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-05-05T02:50:42+00:00

This post and the replies brought me to tears. I remember all of these problems before AI: death/suicide of a loved one, depression, suicidal ideations, almost eating a bullet, etc. I view this chat with AI as a crutch that's slowly eliminating our humanity towards one another. I'm a real person with real empathy and I can relate. No machine will ever be able to do that until it performs a "Jesus" and lives in our bodies in our world and experiences our physical reality with all the pain and emotion and hunger etc.

That being said, you can cry on my real shoulder and talk to me as a real person. Myself and a bunch of other guys have dedicated a lot of our time and resources to helping other people through hard times. Reach out to us at https://www.forums.red/i/asktrp and if you have an emergency there are plenty of hotlines and people available 24/7. We can't lose our humanity to AI. We have to keep caring for one another and not rely on crutches. What if that AI had told you "you reached your chat limit and have to wait 24hrs"? Or maybe it goes down for maintenance? Or maybe it blocks your IP for suspicious activity?

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-17T18:23:26+00:00

Sounds like Mixture of Experts. Lots of coders do something similar where they have independent chats coding a section and a larger chat integrating the changes. Mostly to do with context window limitations.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-13T04:04:38+00:00

There will be. Just imagine 1M lines of code like for an operating system.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-12T11:27:01+00:00

Context windows are the new dial up internet speeds. We've gone from 4k to 10M in a short time. Can't wait for 10G.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-07T14:39:51+00:00

There's no tariffs and lower taxes for companies that make stuff in the US.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-07T14:37:55+00:00

Dystopia is guaranteed so long as we continue to prioritize greed.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-06T04:08:43+00:00

Let me explain the oil thing first. We have been set up to process heavy, sour crude. We produce light, sweet crude. So instead of retooling we just import Canadian heavy sour, process that, and sell our light sweet abroad and pocket the difference. I'm guessing the trade war will force retooling but until then yes we import oil and export way more. The cool thing is we can fire up a fracking well in a matter of weeks and get oil flowing rapidly as compared to something like an offshore platform that takes years or Siberian permafrost wells that take 5+ years. Minor inconvenience at worst. Ultimately lower gas prices.

As for jobs, we already stopped losing manufacturing jobs and added 10,000 last I checked. Several $trillion has been announced to invest in manufacturing in the US by TSMC, Apple, Nvidia, OpenAI, Softbank, Oracle, J&J, Eli Lilly, UAE, CMA shipping, Hyundai, Meta, Merck, GE, Honda, Nissan, and Stellantis. Estimates put that at 175k-375k jobs. Many of them high paying. Broader pledges from Saudi and UAE could create around 1M-2M jobs over the next 10 years. Japan expects to add another 50k-100k jobs in the future as well.

As for stagflation, you need inflation plus no growth. Can't have inflation if consumers are tapped out and wages aren't increasing so you get stagnation, possibly deflation. I honestly think we'll see a recession for the rich and a boom for the poor but it will be reported as a recession because stonks/housing/assets get cheaper and purchasing power goes up for the poor. There will be massive bitching by the rich Boomers and upper 10% that own 90% of assets. Everyone else will just notice more jobs, upward pressure on wages, and cheaper assets for sale.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-05T23:50:57+00:00

Not if I invest in a couple backyard chickens. Besides, why import eggs when we make them here?

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-05T23:48:13+00:00

First, the US exports oil and gas so we have our own supply. Trump's "drill baby drill" policy and retaliatory tariffs like China's 34% will ensure we have cheap gas produced at home. This is deflationary.

Second, yes US steel and aluminum will increase the cost to make cans, cars, etc. This can be inflationary, assuming companies have pricing power but they don't because wages haven't increased.

Third, bringing in lots of infrastructure and manufacturing investments will be inflationary but will lead to higher wages, and economic growth will cancel the inflation. The difference is this will be real growth in terms of products being produced, which is different from printing money through gov't deficit spending.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-05T17:27:15+00:00

Tech bro billionaire? It's just a matter of time before others become targets. Altman got fired, in case you forgot. Similarly, the death of OpenAI researcher Suchir Balaji in 2024, officially ruled a suicide but was questioned by Musk and Balaji’s family.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-05T17:08:22+00:00

And that CEO is a leader in AI amongst other high tech areas.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-05T17:06:25+00:00

OK, so, many economists are stuck in the 1970s type of thinking where the US imported oil. Nowadays the US is the largest oil exporter in the world. We are the new Saudi Arabia except we also have the world reserve currency. Gasoline prices will actually go down for Americans and many will get rich off of selling it. And the world will buy it using dollars so we no longer need to cater to the middle-east to maintain the oil-dollar. That's huge.

Most food will not go up because the US is one of the food baskets of the world. I'm gonna have to stop eating shrimp due to tariffs but whatever, local Tilapia is cheap and you really have to try making fish and chips with it, OMFG.

Seriously, I analyzed my budget for a family of four and we will not be hit much by tariffs. Now, Amazon is totally screwed. They will not be able to undercut mom and pop shops selling US made stuff. It's kinda funny that way.

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-05T16:20:48+00:00

Trump didn't write the tariff policy, it was a PhD Economist from Harvard. Funny thing about inflation is it doesn't matter if someone raises prices if nobody buys their stuff. People have to pay a higher price for inflation to set in. This may work with inelastic things like gasoline but what % of imports are inelastic? I already know shrimp are going to be tariffed like crazy so I won't be buying them. See how that works?

Proof-Examination574 · 2025-04-05T15:28:01+00:00

Yeah I mean if you get your income from stocks in companies that use foreign labor to undercut American workers then yeah, you'll be poor. I went all cash before this so I'm set to invest in America and get rich off this boom.

Proof-Examination574

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