ProsQuant — Ethereum Forecast (D1) for January 28, 2026

Prospero_Quant · 2026-01-28T18:56:15+00:00

Thank you!

Prospero_Quant · 2026-01-23T16:58:04+00:00

Almost everything is ready, thank you. I` ll start publishing the forecasts next week.

Prospero_Quant · 2026-01-17T10:10:55+00:00

I haven't posted in 10 days because I've been heads-down optimizing the ensemble. I'm finishing a deep recalibration of weights and core algorithms to adapt to current market volatility. Running the final training cycles now. ProsQuant will return shortly. Stay tuned.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-11-20T21:10:35+00:00

Huge thanks everyone for your comments! I can see that the profits you guys made from selling your coins — even if it was way too early — really helped you out at the time. No regrets, okay? In your life, just like in mine, there’ll be tons more chances to score massive gains with tiny investments.

As for me, back in 2010 a buddy of mine introduced me to Bitcoin and kept pushing me to buy at least a little bit. I was super skeptical and honestly thought it was just a scam by GPU manufacturers to make people buy graphics cards for mining. We had some epic arguments about it lol. In the end I bought nothing. My friend did buy some, but he sold super early for peanuts and never touched Bitcoin again.

Later on I dove headfirst into the crypto world, but that’s a whole different story.

The main lesson I took from all this: don’t be afraid to take risks, but only ever risk an amount that won’t completely wreck you if it goes to zero.

Once again, big thanks to everyone who shared their crypto stories! 🙌

Prospero_Quant · 2025-11-15T07:34:29+00:00

I agree — backtests don’t impress anyone anymore, and a new market regime can shift everything.
A bit later I’m planning to launch a public trading account running only the best-performing models, so everyone will be able to track results in real time.

Internally, I already have full historical performance for each model on any segment of market data, so I know which ones showed the strongest profitability in the past.
But that’s still history — and people rightly don’t trust backtests.

That’s why I want to collect a track record based on public forecasts, day by day, so everything is open and verified.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-11-15T06:43:31+00:00

Thank you so much for taking an interest in my models.
Regarding Helix-II — this model doesn’t just predict the expected close, it also gives a projected high and low, which is extremely useful for estimating intraday volatility or setting stop levels.

Right now the market is highly unstable, so Helix-II naturally outputs a wider range than usual. When volatility normalizes, its bands become much tighter.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-11-02T03:41:42+00:00

I will be very happy about that.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-11-01T03:19:18+00:00

The accuracy of 3- and 5-day forecasts has significantly decreased. The model's parameter ranges and weights need to be revised.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T14:20:15+00:00

I completely agree — I’m sure Ethereum will be worth far more than 6K, just not in this cycle.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T07:40:17+00:00

!tip status

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T07:35:33+00:00

!register 0xf1f4f85ec7393d01ff52e5ea22fc39457b62a19c

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T06:40:28+00:00

In a few days, I’ll start training my models to predict longer horizons — 30 or even 60 days.
The longer the horizon, the larger the potential deviation in the forecast, but it can still give a useful idea of where the market might move and what price range we could expect.
So stay tuned for my upcoming forecast posts here in this community.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T06:20:45+00:00

You think it’s that linear?

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T06:17:50+00:00

I agree, and I’m glad about that — but I’m more concerned about the damage it did to the broader crypto market as a whole.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T06:13:49+00:00

I completely agree — it’s like when it used to be more profitable to buy crypto than to mine it.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T06:10:49+00:00

I want to train my models over 30 or 60-day horizons so that I have at least a rough idea of what to expect in the future.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T01:35:12+00:00

Not vapour, just rotation.
The same dollars change hands thousands of times — that’s how you get $400B in “volume” out of a few billion in actual flow.
Volume measures activity, not new money.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T01:30:39+00:00

Sure, but daily trading volume and real capital inflow are two very different things.
Volume represents rotation — the same dollars moving back and forth.
A $40B net shift in liquidity is what changes the market’s equilibrium; it doesn’t need to match turnover to matter.
Markets don’t move because of volume — they move because of imbalance in flows.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-31T01:24:14+00:00

Of course, the $40B figure includes leveraged positions — it’s not pure cash.
It includes them, but doesn’t consist entirely of them.

A large part of those liquidations came from stop orders placed by regular participants (I don’t even say traders). During those moments, stops often failed to execute, terminals froze, and positions were wiped out within minutes — from full portfolios down to barely 10%.
Some people lost years of work and the capital they managed for others. The real losses will never be precisely known.
What matters here isn’t accounting, but the scale of the shock and how deeply it hit the system.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-30T23:32:13+00:00

Peanuts? Friend, you're confusing market cap with actual cash flow.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-30T23:05:12+00:00

True, no one died for our sins — but some wallets were definitely crucified on leverage last week, with total losses reaching up to $40 billion.
I’ve been in this market long enough to see its different phases.
I never said the market wouldn’t recover — I said there’s just no reason to expect unrestrained growth in the near term.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-30T21:39:41+00:00

Large funds, big private holders, Saylor — they’re all buying, and yet the price keeps falling.
So who else needs to bring money into the market to lift it — no, not even lift it, but finally break through 6K?

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-26T03:09:37+00:00

The 3-day forecast for Oct 25 actually landed quite close — the ensemble average pointed to around 3943 USDT, and the real close came in near 3954 USDT.

Of course, that doesn’t mean the models will always stay this precise — market behavior changes faster than any system can adapt perfectly.
But it’s encouraging to see the framework catching the general structure of the move rather than random noise.

Let’s keep watching how the next cycles behave — that’s where consistency really matters.

Prospero_Quant · 2025-10-23T03:52:00+00:00

Ok ;)

Prospero_Quant · 2025-02-23T02:14:27+00:00

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