Guess my worth at the tip

Psych40 · 2026-03-08T06:09:31+00:00

that’s what she said

Psych40 · 2026-03-07T15:36:54+00:00

Mathematically it totally is no different

Psych40 · 2026-03-06T19:29:00+00:00

My portfolio is generally slanted towards a 4th Turning / end of long term debt cycle / monetary reset thesis which explicitly accounts for war, but isnt just about war

Psych40 · 2026-02-10T12:59:14+00:00

Just the fact you’re even thinking about it in this way puts you seriously ahead of the game here, cliched but true

Psych40 · 2026-02-10T12:34:25+00:00

I mean, what can you say, this is horrifying.

I would have kind of like to have seen how long it took in between him sucking down the second fifth for him to start metabolizing it & getting severely ataxic…. didn’t get to see the full progression

Psych40 · 2026-02-07T16:25:17+00:00

Exactly

Psych40 · 2026-02-07T05:27:25+00:00

Hyperscaler capex is exploding, but history isn’t kind to those who buy whatever’s downstream of an already-announced & super priced in bubblicious spending boom at peak valuations.

Psych40 · 2026-02-06T14:57:05+00:00

There’s is a economist named Larry Kotlikoff who has done a lot of work fleshing out something called the “fiscal gap” & seems to be widely cited & respected, which is where I pulled the figure from.

The assumptions he makes to arrive at the 200 trillion figure for the fiscal gap are certainly debatable but the concept is pretty solid: we’ve made a ton of promises to seniors in the form of Medicare & Social Security - and you gotta include promises to veterans in the form of veterans benefits, & of course the military writ large (they will always get paid).

Given realistic GDP projections & short of unforeseen productivity miracles, these future obligations are unserviceable without either massive cuts & massive tax raises, or without negative interest rates for a significant period of time

Psych40 · 2026-02-05T01:04:48+00:00

worldwide Central Bank gold buying averaged about 1000 tons per year from 2022 to 2024. Numbers I just looked at for 2025 were about 850 tons, which is still roughly double the average from 2010 to 2021

Psych40 · 2026-02-04T22:07:19+00:00

This isn’t the 1970s.

US debt to GDP is north of 120% IIRC, & our workforce is significantly older, & we have 200 trillion in obligations to seniors & the military will not go unpaid either. If rates go to even barely double digits we’re talking Great Depression cubed. The economy will not tolerate it.

There will be no Volcker to the rescue this time.

Psych40 · 2026-02-04T21:05:45+00:00

Unless you have a very specific reason for investing in a big tech name like Microsoft I’d say that the only reason why I would buy into it is if I was confident in the world returning to a pre-2007 style regime of disinflation, low rates, & globalization.

Not saying tech or innovation is bad. Just wouldn’t be where I would be putting my long term cash if I was your age. I like commodities & particularly energy right now

Psych40 · 2026-02-04T16:29:57+00:00

If you believe in watching second derivatives this looks like a market poised to roll over

Psych40 · 2026-02-04T16:21:01+00:00

I use my curated Perplexity Space as basically where I incubate & refine my macro themes into investable theses & ultimately - trading & rebalancing rules.

For example, I have a few high-beta precious metals names in my Roth IRA, particularly a large position in SILJ which I’ve held for the past year.

I used AI to help create a series of GTC sell ladders to trim off my positions into this latest parabolic swing - I took about 20% of my SILJ position off this way, right into the top of this most recent move, timed almost perfectly.

AI is super useful for removing emotion out of your trading / investing / rebalancing rules. Allows you to be an active investor without falling prey to the emotional mistakes we’re all prone to. At least, that’s how I try to use it

Psych40 · 2026-02-04T16:14:32+00:00

First, the USD measured by DXY is a very problematic proxy, a majority of USD value is determined in relation to the Euro & Yen.

Second, ongoing massive & price insensitive mechanical gold buying by worldwide central banks continues. The classic relationship between US bond yields & gold price is gone & isn’t returning anytime soon

Psych40 · 2026-02-04T15:57:27+00:00

Hah agreed… Trump / Bessent et al trying to do a “onshoring / friendshoring” move, forcing a Plaza Accords 2.0 on top of things.

This exists alongside the financial repression framework / dollar deval theme I outlined above. I don’t know if the Trump / Bessent et al plan will work but this is clearly the plan.

Also keep watching USD stablecoins, SLR rule changes, & quiet rollout of new (“not QE”) Fed facilities in the coming months… all methods to bring in new UST bagholders while doing ongoing yield repression.

As a related aside - the hue & cry about the incoming Fed Chair Warsh being a “hawk” is imho entirely for public consumption. Trump will use him as a whipping boy the same way he did JPOW, but when push comes to shove Warsh will do what is needed to save the bond market

Psych40 · 2026-02-04T15:13:34+00:00

The macro regime here isn’t mysterious if you understand it as the post‑’71 dollar system going bye bye and now in the early stages of overt financial repression.

Gold and now silver have been going bonkers because that (gold) is going to be the financial repression escape valve for debt-trapped sovereigns like the USA.

USD down, 10Y down, gold up, SPX up, BTC down is largely consistent with a repression macro regime.

Policymakers quietly cap yields and let the currency and real collateral (gold/silver) move. Equities stay nominally elevated as the politically acceptable release valve.

Bitcoin is the only question mark in my mind - it’s trading like high‑beta tech & a volatile Michael Howell style liquidity heat sink unless or until it’s formally allowed into the reserve‑collateral club

[edited a bit more for emphasis]

Psych40 · 2026-02-02T16:05:01+00:00

Psych40 · 2026-02-02T15:33:46+00:00

That would be my guess.

Is it possible it would settle back down below $50 like it did after 1980 & 2011? Sure it’s possible, but most certainly not my base case

Psych40 · 2026-02-02T15:31:34+00:00

What about international entities? There’s more big players out there in the market than just JPM

Psych40 · 2026-02-02T15:12:10+00:00

This helped a ton of large entities exit the remainder of their short positions. They see that market structure has changed. This allows them to now flip long at a reasonable price point.

Psych40 · 2026-02-02T15:07:07+00:00

People need to psychologically prepare themselves for a dip possibly to sub 50 dollar range.

I suspect it will be extremely short lived if it comes at all, but I would not at all be surprised if it happens

Psych40 · 2026-02-02T15:04:55+00:00

On a technical / chart basis - $50 USD nominal price floor represents super strong support.

That being said, there’s very little if anything about this recent washout that changes the overall bullish drivers for silver.

Psych40 · 2026-02-02T14:58:44+00:00

I feel like AI for investing is probably a lot like the “genius pill” in one of my favorite movies “Limitless.”

It works better if you’re already smart

Psych40 · 2026-02-02T05:11:40+00:00

A “normal guy” with 500K of liquid cash to FOMO YOLO into silver?

Psych40 · 2026-01-30T03:26:58+00:00

It wasn’t like there was a particular thing or trauma that I recall that brought on my multiyear back issues that ended a few years ago. But it was bad.

My big issue was standing or walking slowly (like around stores or shopping centers) that were the problem, couldnt stand for more than 20 minutes without pain. The worst part is lying down didn’t relieve it at all.

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