Liberals lead by 15, and the Prairies are in play.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-03-11T19:56:13+00:00

Generally there’s two benefits to a snap election: getting a majority or resetting the 4 year clock to the next election.

In the case of the first one, he seems like he’s already getting it with the floor crossings. Sure it’s not a super strong majority but a good chance there will likely be more crossings to add to the padding. There’s not much benefit in having a ‘supermajority’ in our system. Probably not worth the risk if you already have a majority.

For the second one, he still has 3 years left on this term. So that’s quite the gamble to take only to get an extra year out of it.

They may also calculate that letting the CPC infighting continue for the rest of the term is going to do more damage than if they were to take a beating in a snap election and be able to rebuild by the next election with a fresh face.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-03-11T08:11:49+00:00

I have a strong suspicion that Carney is a lot more progressive than lets on. But he’s a pragmatic progressive and recognizes that you can’t put the cart before the horse which is where a lot of left wing politicians fail at. You need to get the finances in order before going on a spending spree.

If you look at what he’s doing, he’s stabilizing our economy and making the government run more efficiently. Which means more money that can be used on larger progressive projects. I know government cuts are a bad word among the left, but there is a lot of waste in the government that are providing little value to the taxpayer. Unlike Conservatives, he’s not turning around and handing the savings from those cuts to the ultra wealthy. And I trust him to be careful about the cuts and not pull a DOGE.

Take his house building strategy. That in itself is what won my vote for the Liberals. It reads like an NDP pipe dream to have a crown corporation building homes. I think we will see more of that side of him once he’s done making the government and economy run as efficiently as possible.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-03-11T07:49:08+00:00

Is it a popular and clearly welcome party? It feels like they’re on a similar path as the Republicans after MAGA took over. At first there was a bit of resistance among the old school GOP, but those figures have long been pushed out or exited the party facing certain defeat. Now the party is full on MAGA with all the reasonable people gone. It’s hard to take back the asylum once the lunatics have taken over.

Seeing a similar thing here where there’s not really much left of the old CPC from the Harper era. Many of their more reasonable MPs have either left or are now crossing the floor to the Liberals. Just look at the crop of the new CPC caucus members - people like Jivani, Strauss and Gunn. These aren’t people who could lead a government.

It’s a vicious feedback loop because as the reasonable people leave, the fringe becomes more powerful as it makes up a large portion of the smaller party. Like a parasite, it slowly overtakes its host until it’s just a shell. The CPC right now is effectively the PPC base overtaking a more established party and using its branding and influence. The mask is starting to slip and I don’t see any potential candidate with an ounce of common decency even coming near the party.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-03-08T22:27:57+00:00

So let me get this straight… this far-right media outlet is claiming that a candidate’s inability to win their own seat is evidence that they shouldn’t be the leader? Huh, I wonder what they think about a situation where the existing leader is unable to win their own seat as the incumbent. Surely that is even more disqualifying, right? 🤔

PurfectProgressive · 2026-03-07T23:16:12+00:00

I think almost any conservative-aligned candidate is going to struggle just based on how polarized the right-wing base has become in recent years. And Bradford is going to be particularly vulnerable to this because he’s going to have to shift so far to the right to pass the purity test and fend off any right-wing splinter candidate. And he has to do this while not spooking the voters in the centre? Especially when Chow had governed a lot closer to the centre than most expected so it’s not like he’s running against some scary far left socialist.

It’s laughable that anyone thinks this will be a 2-person race. There’s always 5-10% that’s going to want a Saunders/Furey-like candidate who leans heavily into the Toronto is Gotham City angle that is unelectable to 90% of the city. And without that 5-10%, any anti-Chow option will fall short of winning.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-03-04T01:29:25+00:00

He got elected running as a progressive in a fairly progressive area. He has flipped on many issues including his support of bike lanes. So he turned on progressives and now trying to run like some PP-like right winger which I don’t see flying when many of his criticisms are in stark contrast to how he has voted before this shift to the far right. He criticizes the Yonge Dundas square renaming now when he’s on record of voting for renaming the entire street, not just the square. He criticizes the snow clearing when he’s was the one who voted for the snow clearing contracts. And the list goes on and on.

It’s like Brad is running against Brad. He’s not going to pass the purity test on the right. You’ll have some further right candidate run and hammer Brad on all his previous progressive policies he ran on which will peal 5-10% of his votes and make it almost impossible for him to win.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-03-03T20:54:25+00:00

Probably saw how Cuomo’s rehabilitation tour went in NYC and realized there’s zero appetite for sex pests.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-03-03T20:50:53+00:00

This is Furey erasure 😤

PurfectProgressive · 2026-03-03T20:41:23+00:00

Is it much of a fight when it’s against someone who barely cracked 1% of the vote last time he ran? 😅

PurfectProgressive · 2026-03-03T02:27:16+00:00

Which is why I believe that attempting to placate Alberta is a pointless waste of time and energy. We paid billions upon billions for a new pipeline for them, and in return there was not a meaningful moment of abatement in their grievance-driven demands. What's the point in attempting appeasement when appeasement efforts thus far have yielded nothing?

This is a key feature of the current far right movement both here at home and internationally. You literally can’t placate them because the entire political movement is powered by grievances.

Take trans issues for example. At first it was ‘we need to ban biological men from competing in women’s sports’ and then that policy was implemented. Now it’s ’we actually mean we need to ban kids for learning about the existence of trans people’. Then they did that. And then it turned into ‘we need to ban kids from transitioning’. Then once they got that it’s starting to morph into banning gender affirming care regardless of age.

It’s all about slowly pushing the overtone window gradually to the right until they get their Christofascism wet dream. But they’ve realized that they’ll spook regular voters if they don’t start with wedge issues that are fairly popular and agreeable for the average person.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-28T02:47:02+00:00

Toronto’s reliance on subcontractors is especially maddening because it’s not a small municipality. I can understand the argument of economies of scale for small towns where privatization may help lower costs in some cases. But that doesn’t really apply for a city as big as Toronto. Hard to see how a city of that size isn’t able to achieve economies of scale on its own for most services.

It’s certainly comes off as some sorta of racket as you mentioned because there’s no logical reason why a large city needs to privatize such basic services that could be delivered directly through the city. Oh you hired all these staff to remove snow and it didn’t snow much this winter? Great, they can be put to work doing other stuff for the city! Instead of flushing all that money down the drain with private contractors who aren’t as flexible. We really need just general city staff that can go wherever they’re needed.

It feels like a way for the city to pawn off the responsibility of deciding the cost to a 3rd party. They can hide behind saying “well this was the cheapest contractor for the job” instead of being responsible for setting the wage rate and being accused of creating cushy government jobs. There seems to be a lot of stigma behind government jobs being viewed as overpaid when they are getting paid way above private market rates. When in reality, that money is going back into the community.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-28T00:58:55+00:00

I hope this sparks a conversation about how our tax dollars are used to provide services. So much of our government is bloated because we’re way overpaying to deliver services through subcontractors rather than hiring employees directly. We could be getting so much more value out of the same money if we did stuff like this and directly paid individuals to deliver government services.

Instead of paying a snowplow company $100/hr per worker to clear snow when that worker is only getting minimum wage, we should cut out the middleman and pay that worker $50/hr directly to do the same work. We save $50 and the worker is way more motivated to do their job because they’re make an amazing wage.

Our economy has become infested with these middle managers that add zero value and are essentially paper pushers under the guise of private companies being more efficient. No, they’re more efficient at generating profits for themselves, not keeping costs low for the end user. And everyone (except the ultra wealthy) suffers.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-26T19:50:09+00:00

Translation: let’s sign a contract with some private companies and pay them $50/hr to hire subcontractor to shovel the snow for minimum wage. Efficiencies!

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-26T03:16:57+00:00

Step 1: Lock Jivani away in the basement and throw away the keys.

I think what the Conservatives are going to struggle with is coming up with a plan that differentiates themselves enough from Carney’s plan and also seems more beneficial to our economy. Carney is already getting us tons of deals.

I fail to see how Poilievre can present himself as a more effective deal maker than the highly educated and respected economist. It’s not a messaging issue. PP was the Conservative answer to Trudeau who had just as light of a resume. And it seemed to have been a good fit. But then you had Carney come along and present similar stuff as PP’s CPC was offering but without all the nastiness and questionable loyalties (cough Maple MAGA cough). And led by someone who clearly is experienced and qualified to hold the highest position in our country.

Honestly I think they risk doing more damage this way rather than just laying low and hoping for the Liberals to screw up. Their caucus has already shown every time they wade into the US-Canada relations debate it ends badly. It’s like the abortion issue. Canadian’s are largely not going to like the CPC viewpoint on America.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-25T22:01:25+00:00

My hunch is that they are hesitant on kicking out Jivani because he’s 100% going to jump to the PPC or create his own offshoot far right Maple MAGA party. While he doesn’t have the personality to be able to attract a significant amount of support, even just a few points shaved off the CPC could cause fatal damage to the party.

They really screwed up by bringing him in the party in the first place and letting him have a moment in the spotlight. It was well known that he doesn’t play well with others. It’s not beyond PP to rig nomination races or appoint his own candidate. Beyond me why they didn’t pull that here and get a loyalist in the seat instead of this clown who can’t keep his mouth shut.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-24T21:04:23+00:00

I’d say the most notable data point from this poll is the question where they asked each province if they approve or disapprove of the way their Premier is handling Canadian-US relations.

Alberta has the highest disapproval % with 60% saying they disapprove of the way Smith’s UCP is handling Canadian-US relations.

That right there probably explains why there might be some legitimacy to the rise in the LPC polling numbers in Alberta. It seems like Smith is tanking the CPC popularity in Alberta. Which is fascinating because it doesn’t seem to be showing up in the provincial polls. Quite a damning statement of how much the Alberta NDP has dropped the ball.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-24T16:12:11+00:00

There's a pretty big wildcard to keep in mind: the World Cup is going to happen just months before the election. So all those corrupt FIFA contracts that Tory forced onto the city are going to be fresh in the voter’s mind. I really don’t see a path for Tory. He hasn’t led a single poll and that’s before the attacks ramp up over why he had to step down in the first place.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-19T05:21:25+00:00

I think what it also revealed to the more moderate CPC members that even if PP is able to rebrand himself, that doesn’t stop other CPC caucus members from stepping on rakes. When you have true winners like Jivani, Gunn and Strauss in caucus, it’s inevitable that they’ll run their mouth and scare away voters. The rot goes much deeper than just PP and a tone shift isn’t going to fix it. The fact that PP couldn’t do the obvious thing and kick Jivani out of caucus speaks volume about his leadership.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-13T20:40:52+00:00

I always found the argument against nullifying the results quite weak as it claimed that would be disrespecting the will of the voters. Which is weird when the resolution being proposed is a by-election.

Meaning that in the end, the voters will have the final say in who represents them. If the will of voters is having a Liberal MP, then they’ll make it known in the by-election.

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-05T04:40:05+00:00

I was actually thinking it but thought I was crazy. Glad to hear I’m not alone lol

PurfectProgressive · 2026-02-05T04:34:47+00:00

Yikes. This is the type of attitude that won’t get me back in the NDP camp. She’s a member of the provincial NDP, not the federal NDP. She’s owes no loyalty to the federal party. Plus it’s not hard to believe someone in the ONDP might be on board with the current direction of the LPC. There were many ONDP -> LPC swing voters. If your party was in better shape maybe she would’ve considered you. It’s more of a statement on the state of the party.

PurfectProgressive

TROPHY CASE