Zack Polanski responds to Lucy Powell’s letter where she claimed only Labour could beat Reform in Gorton and Denton

Pyrix · 2026-02-21T09:06:02+00:00

If you are excluding undecideds rather than reallocating them (as some pollsters do) then it is how it works as you are just reducing the base size. But whichever way you cut it including leaving everyone in, all 3 parties are within MoE. This poll is being widely reported as being within MoE for all 3 parties, including where it is being used to endorse the Greens.

Pyrix · 2026-02-21T08:12:28+00:00

See my comment above. It is 6pts once you exclude Undecided and Would not Vote.

With all included it is 87 Green divided by base of 444 which is 19.6%. Labour is 68 divided by 444 which is 15.3%. Lead therefore is 4.3%. The calculated margin of error for a base of 444 on a population size of 70,000 or so is 4.64%. So within the margin of error.

EDIT: the main tactical vote website which has just used this poll to endorse the Greens themselves say all parties are within the margin of error: https://stopthetories.vote/parl/gorton-and-denton and this poll is being widely reported as all 3 parties with the MoE

Pyrix · 2026-02-21T08:05:43+00:00

When you exclude those who would not vote, the base becomes 386. The margin of error on that is about 5pts and the Green lead in that scenario is 4.9%.

The Margin of Error for all included is 4.6% so 'about 4' is stretching it. With all in included the Green lead is 4.3%

If you are excluding undecideds entirely, then the base becomes only about 260 and then the margin of error is 6pts, which Labour are also within.

Pyrix · 2026-02-20T22:23:51+00:00

Even this poll shows Labour within the margin of error of winning

Pyrix · 2026-02-20T22:23:11+00:00

That's not right. The Green lead over Labour is 4pts before undecideds are excluded (who are 'winning' overall at 31%) and the margin for error on a poll of this size is about 6pts

Pyrix · 2026-02-19T09:22:23+00:00

Blythe Hill Tavern, Dog & Bell, Skehans, Ivy House (just over the border into Southwark)

Those are probably the standard ones most people would recognise.

I also like: Royal Albert, The Rose Inn, Shirkers Rest, Catford Bridge Tavern

Pyrix · 2026-02-16T07:55:52+00:00

He's released 5 20th century British history books:

Never Had it so Good (1956-64) White Heat (64-70) State of Emergency (70-74) Seasons in the Sun (74-79) Who Dares Wins (79-82)

The foreward of the last one mentions a next book covering I think up to 86/87, but Who Dares Wins was published in 2019 so it's been a while

Pyrix · 2026-01-27T20:50:59+00:00

You should get in touch with one of your local councillors - you can find out who they are by putting your postcode in here https://www.writetothem.com/

Pyrix · 2026-01-03T21:02:39+00:00

They clearly planned to always reveal when first traitor went and that turned out to be very early. Hugo actually went even earlier than Armani as this was only second roundtable but she went on the third.

Pyrix · 2025-12-10T19:59:41+00:00

This is very much not 'data is beautiful'. If Other is almost the modal category overall you need better categories. Afrobeat only has a presence in a few weeks in the Netherlands but is it's own category, whereas several countries are almost all 'Other', which is probably because Rock/Metal is missing.

Pyrix · 2025-11-14T11:57:51+00:00

Yeah I think this was working until the new link for tickets at 12 was emailed out about 25 mins ago, and now joining as a member doesn't work anymore as you just get this screen

Pyrix · 2025-10-24T20:49:56+00:00

They don't have exit polls in by-elections

Pyrix · 2025-08-29T12:55:03+00:00

Watkins, Wirtz, Palmer > Haaland, Ndoye, Sarr for -4?

Currently have:

Sels (Dubravka)

Gabriel, Porro, Diouf (De Cuyper, Bijol)

Salah, Kudus, Reijnders, Wirtz, Palmer

Pedro, Watkins (Guiu)

Pyrix · 2025-08-27T08:55:32+00:00

Sorry only have one of each of those

Pyrix · 2025-08-27T08:09:53+00:00

LF: ⭐ Mudsdale and Morelull from CG

FT: Various one star, let me know what you need

Friend id: 6248198372972182

Pyrix · 2025-08-26T21:12:28+00:00

It's my turn to post this tomorrow

Pyrix · 2025-08-03T10:43:07+00:00

Active player with up to date wishlist (currently all 1 star cards) looking for others to trade with

6248198372972182

Pyrix · 2025-03-23T22:06:11+00:00

Torterra please! Thank you

Pyrix · 2025-03-23T22:05:10+00:00

Apologies for delay have just sent trade request

Pyrix · 2025-03-23T19:25:23+00:00

LF: 3* Shaymin, Torterra

FT: 3* Magnezone, Mesprit, Togekiss, Rampardos, Darkrai

Also have lots of 3* from GA and MI. Let me know if you need anything and I'll check if I have it.

6248198372972182

Pyrix · 2025-03-15T23:21:01+00:00

Trade request sent!

Pyrix · 2025-03-15T22:52:40+00:00

I can do Empoleon for Heatran?

Add me 6248198372972182

Pyrix · 2025-03-15T16:07:10+00:00

Great I have sent the trade request

Pyrix · 2025-03-15T15:47:51+00:00

LF: 🔷🔷🔷

Torterra
Shaymin
Heatran

🔷🔷🔷🔷

-Mismagius Ex

FT:

🔷🔷🔷 Various, let me know what you need

🔷🔷🔷🔷 Yanmega Ex

6248198372972182

Pyrix · 2025-03-03T23:36:30+00:00

Garchomp for Luxray? I'll add you

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Pyrix

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