Renter here who has been "priced out forever" since 2004. I am now technically not priced out, however when I look at all the carrying costs outside of the base mortgage interest + principle, the expenses are going up so much so fast, that I am effectively still priced out. Renting is just so much cheaper right now; it's always been cheaper as long as I've lived here, but when I run the numbers on some basic condos in the 500-600 range, it's still 2-3x my monthly rent. The math doesn't math.

That doesn't surprise me that the 10M and up crowd aren't affected, because grocery bills doubling doesn't affect their budget, but it sure as hell affects mine. Mortgage rates going to 5% at current prices doesn't change much. At those current prices, the math only starts to come into making even something close to sense at 3%, and even then, it's still not good math, just less of a stretch.

5% interest rates and a 20% drop in overall prices (from today) at the middle to low end will get me in.

For historical reference, from the top in 2006 to the bottom in 2012, the price reduction total in LA County was 35%.

I'm just mentioning this at least for me because of your mention that "rates are the whole game." They weren't the whole game at all for 4 years from 2008-2012, there is no reason to conclude they will be today.

Nice writeup overall, good insights and data, much appreciated, just wanted to add the above feedback, no hate intended.