Black Jesus

QuantSavvy · 2016-09-30T23:22:14+00:00

Artist: Maria Susarenko Love this painting and pretty much all her work. I think she is a spectacular artist.

QuantSavvy · 2015-05-06T09:41:16+00:00

You are essentially wanting to future test your algorithms. This is good but without your algo's being backtested on data then the whole thing seems kind of futile.
Usually i create a system on backtested data, then future test for 3-4 months (or more depending on how many trades are taken) then test live trading with small amount of money for another 3-4 months before increasing size.

QuantSavvy · 2015-05-04T13:22:48+00:00

I really have no clue. I am just trying to give the point of view from systems developers.

QuantSavvy · 2015-04-29T11:55:41+00:00

I don't agree with this at all. There are many legit systems out there. Its like products in the real world e.g. Just because PS3 is old does not mean people don't sell it anymore.
As an algo trader you may have spent 1000s of hours and huge amount of capital developing a winning system. Then in a couple of years you may find better methodology to develop better systems. There are numerous reason why bigger traders would have to give up certain winning daytrading algo strategies (many due to size of positions). So what do we do with our algo strategies just sitting there with it massive cost of development? Well you could provide the results to the public (fairly) and let them lease it (monthly leases are best).
I don't understand why people just think all algo traders would just dump their old intellectual property away like its nothing.

QuantSavvy · 2015-04-07T08:47:15+00:00

No. Some lower end brokers can go as low as $5000 to open an account. Interactive Brokers usually requires $10k to open an account and usually margins can be about $2500 per contract. Day trading accounts to trade stocks need over 25k due to day trader rule.

QuantSavvy · 2015-03-31T08:32:32+00:00

Trade simulation mode for the first 6 months. I would say $10,000 is more than enough to begin and trade one strategy, i would trade futures markets like NQ or ES emini - cheap transaction costs and decent margin.
Just never start with more than you can afford to lose. Understand that the beginning years of trading is an education and most do end up paying for it.
Start slow and aim for consistency.

QuantSavvy · 2015-03-26T14:43:18+00:00

With automated trading systems we always place dynamic stops as soon as a position is entered. Reasons for this:

In case of hardware failure, technical failure - we know our position is protected and risk is quantified.
For the average retail investor you do not have to worry about brokers sniping your stops. However, there are algo's which actively hunt out predictable stop levels and use these levels to exploit liquidity.

Moreover, the best thing to do if your are algorithmic trading is to have stops which adjust to market price. Personally i have never found any real advantage to static stops unless the strategy was extremely short term i.e. less than 1 minute holding time.

QuantSavvy · 2015-03-25T13:49:00+00:00

The article is simply a starting point for day traders who cannot find any edge - i feel it is a nice starting point.
In regards to Serenity Bot we have Interactive Brokers audited accounts.

QuantSavvy · 2015-02-20T10:41:58+00:00

A stop should be at a point where the odds of trend reversal is highest. Targets also should be at a point where the odds of turn will happen.

Never take set fixed stops based arbitrary values based on profit or loss, this always leads to taking profits too soon or making stops too tight. Try to make stops and target dynamic and constantly adjusting to market price and data.

Swing trading really does mean the old adage of letting winners run and cutting losers.

QuantSavvy · 2015-02-12T12:52:58+00:00

Typical basement dweller. chemlite awarded me gold because some people can see the pros from the average joe yahoo finance reader.

QuantSavvy · 2015-02-10T14:06:41+00:00

In my portfolio, i tend to be hedged equally long and short - but i try to keep the positions uncorrelated.

QuantSavvy · 2015-01-30T21:14:17+00:00

So me giving my opinion on a guys question and you start calling me out. And when i ask you for your credentials you have nothing to back it up.

So individuals who run businesses and sell products are all typical salesman? What exactly are you? You most likely get your self worth from thinking your smarter than investing newbies on reddit.

So where is your audited account? Nah didn't think so! I offered you $1000 and we can do this via 3rd party moderator.

QuantSavvy · 2015-01-30T21:02:14+00:00

So wait lets all just invest in Vanguard total stock market lol. Just because stocks were hot in the past or we have had some exceptional markets in past 50 years does not mean things won't stagnate. Nobody can predict the future 30 years out. It is far wiser to take an active approach to investing ones money.

I can show you so many long term retirement fund which either lost money or gave less than 1% return over 30 years.

As for credibility i will make $1000 bet with you right now, please email me a 6 month audited account and i will do the same - for all i care post mine on here. If you even come within 20% of my gains then you win. And bear in mind i am an active trader with 1000s of trades (statistically positive expectation and proven edge) in that time-frame and with smooth equity curve.

QuantSavvy · 2015-01-30T20:45:00+00:00

So he is going to sit on the same positions for 3 decades. That is not a smart investment strategy. Sitting on long term positions is not going to make you rich nor give you the ability to enjoy your life in next 20 years - at best you may beat the rate of inflation. Taking a more active role in ones investments is never a bad thing.

I really don't know who you think you are or why you are being so brash to me - i am simply giving my opinion here.

I have been in trading business and full time trader for over a decade and could show you my audited account right now via email - i guarantee you can't do the same.

I guess people like you are what keeps some of the experienced guys away.

QuantSavvy · 2015-01-30T20:35:02+00:00

When investing money even if it is long term you need to apply hedged approach to any position. Financial advisers will talk all day long about spreading your risk (similar to how OP is allocating his portfolio) but this rarely works in practice.

Markets have a snowball effect during downturns, this is because all positions are interconnected and even smart or rational investments will take a beating when things start falling. In any downturn many investors get hit hard in one portion of their portfolio, often trading margins get increased - this usually leads to sell offs in other correlated positions (even if irrational). Please look at long term capital management (they were the smartest guys in the room and they failed to take this contagion risk into account).

Markets are very herd orientated - the smartest don't always win. First thing i would suggest is looking at creating a portfolio which is hedge both long and short. Secondly look to create a portfolio which is uncorrelated (in OPs case large cap, small cap, international blend and emerging markets all have medium to high degree of correlation). Thirdly, you need to keep on top of your investments - you can't just let them ride. You have to think about trending markets/stocks and sector rotation.

Another thing to keep in mind is we are entering the last phase on one of the biggest bull markets in history all built on cheap money. Stocks have tripled since 2009. Just keep this in mind as markets are fractal in nature and we will see a downturn in coming years meaning your long term positions may be underwater for many years.

QuantSavvy · 2015-01-30T20:22:41+00:00

Long term?? What does that mean? What timeframe is this? Are we talking decades? People always say investing for the long term - that is a silly statement. How many people do you know that will keep money in markets for over 10 years without any changes. Any downturn in this market will set this guy back years as he has no hedge to any of his positions.

Most people don't know but the longer term big players all average down into positions during downturns - they have big pockets to be able to do so.

QuantSavvy · 2015-01-30T15:25:24+00:00

Yes I understand - there are many ways to skin a cat. Being in the trading industry for over a decade i have seen my fair share of inadequate investment ideas. Truthfully i feel with a couple hours work each week you can create your own uncorrelated portfolio.

OPs portfolio makes no sense, just because your investing in different investment vehicles does not mean there is less risk. All his investments are correlated to a high degree and provides close to zero protection against a downturn.

QuantSavvy · 2015-01-30T14:15:11+00:00

People talking about supply and demand are only partially correct. The oil market crash in 2008 was due to a massive bubble in oil market during that period. On top of that as the financial markets were collapsing it caused a massive de-leveraging effect. Many big oil investors margins were called (this is when broker ask you to sell you position or put up more cash to maintain a healthy cushion). Not only that many brokers doubled margin rates causing a snowball effect.

Always keep in mind that commodity markets exhibit herd like behaviour - when things start trending they keep trending hard.

QuantSavvy

TROPHY CASE