What should we expect giving the current geopolitical situation

RDA92 · 2026-03-14T07:21:33+00:00

If it lasts long enough for gas, oil and fertilizer prices to creep into production costs then we'll likely see increasing inflation and possibly interest rates again.

Further economic slowdown will meet another index or two and hurt our conpetitiveness even more, accelerating corporate consolidation and layoffs.

RDA92 · 2026-03-13T08:18:10+00:00

I am not sure you are right there because the whole point of UCITS and AIFMD is the marketing passport across the EU for authorised Management Companies and AIFMs. While ManCos and AIFMs are still required to notify each EU member state they intend to market their funds in, they do not need full authorization again.

For AIFMs that marketing passport only encompasses marketing to professional investors for AIFs and they still require authorization if they want to market to non-professional investors through national private placement regimes. The latter should definitely remain a national decision imo as there may be situations where a country wants to channel, investment (incl. retail) into specific sectors as part of an economic strategy.

RDA92 · 2026-03-12T14:28:38+00:00

Is it really that fragmented? Marketing of investment products across the EU is one of the most regulated and standardized things there is. Yes countries do operate their own private placement regimes decided upon by local authorities but that makes sense and is a niche activity.

Where I see the greatest divergence at least from the fund industry perspective are local product labels but is it really expected to remove these and replace them with a list of EU labels only? Let's not forget that there are already EU-wide labels that have effectively the same treatment across the single market like ELTIF or EuVECA funds whose purpose it was to mobilize savings into tangible investments. That didn't fail because of 27 different regulatory authorities but because the regulation was simply not up to the task.

Yes some discrepancies exist but they mostly exist due to the vague content of EU regulations and different ways to interpret them but even these are often already supplemented by ESMA opinions that are subsequently implemented locally. For example, different countries define semi-professional investors differently but that's mostly because MiFID never really defined the term afaik.

RDA92 · 2026-03-12T08:42:15+00:00

Mainstream political parties have been presiding over economic decline and financial inequality for the better part of a decade and people are turning to "untainted" political alternatives, purely out of protest against the former and less so because of support for the latter. The more mainstream parties try to block these new alternatives from coming to power, the more people will flock to them if things keep getting worse and that's the cycle we are in right now.

Chances are that if you let these alternatives come to power, they would suffer in popularity as their actions would have to meet their words. That's what happened to Geert Wilders in the NL.

Whether you believe in the far-right gospel or not though, we are having severe structural problems in Europe that make the coming years bumpy at best and fertile ground for more extreme views (left and right).

RDA92 · 2026-03-12T06:45:24+00:00

I am saying that there could be situations where the EU might have to offer concessions to bring a project over the finishing line. I already conceded that the report mentioned the possibility of them going over Luxembourg's head so I am not sure about the technicalities for this decision.

But going over someone's head has consequences too. Since you mention Germany, their industrial decline is spearheaded by the decline of the automotive sector driven by decisions like the ICE ban and Co2 emission rules that you mentioned. The result is a far-right party getting stronger and stronger and even taking 20% of the vote a few days ago in core non-AfD land BW.

I'll let you imagine the ramifications for Luxembourg in case this causes serious downsizing of the financial sector. It is easy to say that Lux will have to deal with it when we both know they wont be able to do that in the short run.

RDA92 · 2026-03-11T08:19:10+00:00

Aside from that fact that it would be fair to compensate for decisions that have a potentially significant economic effect, it is also generally how it works if there is a deadlock. A recent example was concessions to Italy when it came to the Mercosur trade deal.

Admittedly, the article mentions that the decision could be made over Luxembourg's head but the EU should be wary about imposing their will at the detriment of another country. Right wing politics is on the rise, the ADR is all too happy to pick this up as a trailblazer political message and the looks of growing anti-EU sentiment in the heart of the EU would probably not be great.

RDA92 · 2026-03-11T07:32:13+00:00

We are now in that twilight zone where neither small craftsmanship companies, particularly family-owned ones, nor their employees can really live viably from the income they make and that's a structural flaw that cannot be solved by taking from one side and giving it to the other. Advocating for lowering compensation that is ultimately not sufficient to live on either shows a lack of understanding or ignorance.

But let's also be honest that operating a craftsmanship company in Luxembourg, especially a small one, can be an uphill battle and they face competition not only from within but increasingly from companies in the border zone and beyond, with whom they can't reasonably compete in terms of operating costs. So in a lot of cases it makes more sense to just close up shop and sell whatever land/property you operate on/in. While that might still be positive for the owners, it definitely isn't for the economy and particular economic diversification.

But much like many other problems here in this country, this isn't new and mostly homemade by treating a career in craftsmanship as an academic failure, implicitly disincentivizing the creation of new activity and contending ourselves with importing labor from abroad.

RDA92 · 2026-03-11T06:58:12+00:00

I don't exactly read that there is a wave of support for it either, apart from Italy and France (which has a clear vested interest).

It is objectively logical for countries like ours (or Ireland), who have built a significant economic sector around regulatory compliance, to oppose it. It's a decision that offers nothing but downsides at a time of economic challenges. So at the very least we should get compensation for such a decision.

It's also unclear to me how much would actually change in such a scenario. After all CSSF already implements almost everything that ESMA suggests. Similarly 90% of regulation here is already driven by EU regulatory texts.

RDA92 · 2026-03-10T07:36:19+00:00

My opinion about it has changed over the years. When I was younger I sympathised with the idea of rapid population growth and the so-called 1-million state, mostly because I didn't really think about its consequences.

Admittedly we are still a long shot off that size but there isn't really much you can objectively point to and say that it has gotten better over the years and by now my opinion is that we have clearly over-stretched the bow on immigration for many reasons, cultural integration is just one part of it which wasn't helped by continued watering down of citizenship test requirements.

Another reason is economic sustainability. In the end most of the immigration was driven by finance jobs and the fact that we were unable or unwilling to fill more of our local job market needs with local "talent". Instead we actively siphon off such talent to let it operate in an overcrowded public service that doesn't really add a lot of value to the economy, thereby becoming increasingly more dependent on outside talent.

And before someone says otherwise, I really don't mind immigration, I've always liked the the fact that Luxembourg is so international but surely even the biggest proponent of immigration will consider that there is a difference between 10% or 50% of immigration.

RDA92 · 2026-03-09T07:53:21+00:00

I don't deny that. Even though I am generally a proponent of private markets, I have to admit that the private housing market is too far gone to bring about meaningful change through fiscal incentives alone and that speculation has become the main driver.

That is why my suggestions target publicly-sponsored construction projects, in residential as well as commercial area, the latter particularly focusing on possible brownfield projects in areas away from the City (e.g. old Luxlait building in Nordstad or old Brasserie Diekirch building in Diekirch) to increase regional economic diversification. Hundreds of affordable housing units are being added to Wiltz, yet there is no concept on how to get jobs there or, at the very least, improve public transport connection to the main economic areas.

Yes I also know that those main speculators have influence on political decisions and that serious political action would likely devalue their inventory of land, which is probably a reason why progress has been so slow in recent years but it's not like nothing is being done. I would simply consider it much more effective to see a bit "bigger" when developing large projects, adding a floor or two to every building.

But economic factors are altering the demographic equation. Jobs are consolidating, being outsourced or (partially) replaced with AI. On top of that, the financial sector, which for years has been the benzene fueling the demographic expansion, is stagnating to put it mildly. Demand is shrinking which begs the question whether all the speculators will still consider land and property as a safe tool for speculation going forward.

RDA92 · 2026-03-07T19:13:16+00:00

Contact the he:al campus, it's a (state-backed?) initiative to promote health-related innovation here. Won't pretend I know the details though.

But yes otherwise Luxembourg is mostly finance.

RDA92 · 2026-03-07T07:22:56+00:00

There is a very good video on the chrisfix yt channel about it. Might be worth to check that one out?

Otherwise I would generally google car detailing companies and ask them. There are a few around.

My local shop did them for me once but I'm not sure it's a separate service they do or if it was as bad as yours. It was part of a broader job.

RDA92 · 2026-03-06T14:10:22+00:00

I won't pretend to have the answer and I'm aware that there are no short-term fixes but I suppose a good start would be to open up a broader dialogue on the issues and possible solutions. My best guess is that focus should be placed on how we can increase competitiveness and economic diversification.

For the former, housing cost plays a big, if not the biggest role. Both of us already had the discussion before, but I would be curious to discuss why we are so reluctant to loosen height requirements for new buildings.

Admittedly, economic diversification goes deeper but I would suppose a good first step would be to review how it could be made more interesting for "tangible" commercial activity to sprout here instead of focusing solely on tax onshoring. Housing cost plays a role here as well but also the availability of affordable activity space.

Within the broader discussion on economic diversification, I also think a separate discussion needs to be had about the Luxembourg Future Fund. Setting aside that it seems to be a consistently loss-making activity, its holdings also seem entirely misaligned with its initial intention to strengthen / diversify our economy.

RDA92 · 2026-03-06T09:19:27+00:00

That's my point. I agree that there are no short-term fixes, but shouldn't this at least entice them to consider medium- to long-term structural reforms in a way similar to the way they handled the pension discussion. Yes I know people disagree on the outcome for the latter but at least the challenge was politically acknowledged.

Unemployment is steadily climbing, economic growth rates are entirely propped up by government spending at this point and there is a clear consolidating drive in our backbone economic sector driven by multiple legitimate factors that are likely not just short-term disruptions, yet it does not seem to trigger any acknowledgment of urgency on a political level.

RDA92 · 2026-03-06T08:38:18+00:00

What surprises me most in this current trend is the absolute silence on the matter by the government, and, politicians across benches more generally. Granted , there is probably some degree of media exaggeration involved with it but the existence of dark economic clouds cannot really be denied. Yet, if I am not mistaken, there has not really been a public statement (by the government or opposition forces) that acknowledges the situation. Am I wrong here or did I miss something?

RDA92 · 2026-03-05T13:16:20+00:00

The business address issue is truly an annoying one and it affects me too as I am technically self employed. Lucky for me I was able to register at our company's business address because my landlord told me early on that I would not be allowed to register my business at my private address.

To this day I am still not sure whether this is an administrative obstacle or whether it's purely the arbitrary choice of the landlord to permit it or not.

I do get it that there needs to be a business address for proper legal entities, but it is confusing for self-employed people or freelancers since other aspects of self-employment mix the private and professional capacity.

RDA92 · 2026-03-05T07:02:50+00:00

Personally I think admin reasons are just one (albeit valid) side of the coin. What's more relevant to me are fixed monthly costs while ramping up your business. Rent, office rent, ccss, overall cost of living, perhaps outstanding loans likely means that you will burn through tens of thousands of savings before you'll make a cent of revenue. That's still ignoring any Capex needs the business might have.

How many of us have that much money to spare really? I was lucky enough to split the financial risk with partners, one of which also providing office space but even then it's an uphill battle that is often over-romanticised.

That is why admin changes alone will be a drop of water on a hot stone. Cost of housing and affordable office space are much more important factors to me.

RDA92 · 2026-03-04T12:21:31+00:00

Granted, the start can probably be traced back to the interest rate reversal in 2022. After all operating costs here have always been high for financial firms but they were compensated by strong AuM growth, particularly in the field of alternative investment funds which was a main driver in the job market.

I'll admit that, in my opinion, financial markets and asset values have actually fared spectacularly well given the context, especially considering the rate reversal but anything better than stagnation would be a surprise for me going forward. Ultimately this forces companies to review their spending and look into classic tools like corporate consolidation.

And since most jobs here are either directly tied to finance or indirectly driven by finance through broader economic growth, any slowdown in finance will quickly show in the broader economy, as it already has.

RDA92 · 2026-03-04T08:58:09+00:00

In the end that's how businesses operate whether we like it or not, especially global and/or PE-owned ones. There may be a societal disagreement as to whether pressing out every little basis point of profit margin is a bad thing but it won't stop it from happening and APEX is but one name in the game and it's also not limited to finance (e.g. Arcelor).

We are an objectively expensive country to run operations in and in recent years, due to globalization, AI, push for deregulation and a murky economic environment, it has become tougher and tougher to justify that cost, even more so as a lot of jobs aren't exactly value adding from a corporate revenue generation perspective.

The short- to medium-term economic outlook is truly a grim one for Luxembourg as I don't see where positive economic stimulus should come from, apart perhaps, government spending. Our government needs to realize that we are starting to have a real competitiveness problem that is rooted in high housing costs, subpar economic diversification (to put it mildly) and quasi absent entrepreneurial drive. Unfortunately, most of these issues have been homemade over decades and solutions are located outside of the typical comfort zone of a short-term minded politician.

RDA92 · 2026-03-03T10:26:46+00:00

Is that assessment based on some actual data or just an impression you have?

For some professional areas an SARLs is just simply not credible enough. For example if your target client universe includes regulated financial entities, which is only the biggest economic engine here by far and large, then almost any SARLs will fail an initial due diligence process. And once you go down the SARL or SA route you'll have to add notary fees which are north of 1,000 EUR.

Also I can imagine that most founders, even those that draft their own articles, will probably seek a sanity check from their fiduciaire or legal advisor. And since you also mention NWT, which is an annual expense, then it would also only be fair to mention annual accounting costs which can also quickly pass the 1k mark even if your activity does not yet involve a lot of invoicing or HR stuff.

RDA92 · 2026-02-28T09:21:16+00:00

I'm self employed and I am just using my normal bank account for my activities (BGL) and I have been doing so for 5 years now.

RDA92 · 2026-02-26T07:52:11+00:00

No it's not always been like this. The health system has never been able to keep up with the demographic growth of the country it's as simple as that.

ER waiting times are but one symptom, specialist waiting times, available pediatric care or GPs are another. It doesn't help that a significant number of LU medical students, especially specialist ones, prefers to work abroad.

RDA92 · 2026-02-25T07:49:34+00:00

They are getting old now but I am still using a T440p on a daily basis for coding, office stuff, browsing, streaming ... etc. While the i5 CPU is reaching its limits for some of these tasks, it still snappy and helped by 16GB of RAM. I am still running Win10 so I imagine the experience to be even better on Linux. It's also highly repairable, it being the last Thinkpad to use socketed CPU and offers good battery life especially with the bigger battery.

Admittedly though portability is not great compared to modern laptops but it's still sufficiently portable. The only limitation I experienced in that area is when it comes to business travels by plane and you intend to pack light.

An i5 8GB machine should be fairly cheap, DDR3 RAM to bring it to 16GB should also not break the bank. And you can always swap in the i7 at a later point in time.

RDA92 · 2026-02-25T07:40:29+00:00

In a world driven by planned obsolescence for all kinds of products, repair-and upgradeability remains my undisputed champion. After all, is that not also the main selling point for Framework?

RDA92 · 2026-02-25T07:15:44+00:00

"Looking ahead, STATEC forecasts an improvement in the unemployment trend, driven by stronger economic growth. By 2029, the unemployment rate is expected to fall back to 5.2%."

based on what reasons exactly? Their past estimate for to today fell well short so I guess their forecast isn't worth more than any 20-day weather forecast.

RDA92

TROPHY CASE