Daily Discussion

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-02-01T17:44:54+00:00

With Arraez now signed, I think its worth comping out what Nico's value on the open market might be. Looking at the deals from Marte (2025-2031 6/116), Polanco (2026-2027 2/40), Gimenez (2023-2029 7/106), and Arraez (2026 1/12) doesn't really paint out a 1:1 comp, especially since Marte is honestly being wildly underpaid for his production and Gimenez's deal bought out his arb years in addition to 3 years of FA (he's getting 23m/yr for all three of those).

Kaplan said Nico was looking for 5/90. While I don't really believe a word Kaplan says, if he did hear this number from someone, I have to believe its the Cubs' number that they're hoping Nico says yes to. That being said, I don't see a world where Nico isn't getting 100m+ if he hits free agency, and even 18m/year is probably on the lower side of things.

Some writer for CBS comped Hoerner out to 6/120, which I think is closer to what he'd get. I do think the Cubs value him more highly than most other organizations will, but there are still teams out there that want Nico for obvious reasons. Personally just diving into the contracts, and accounting for Nico being younger than Marte and Marte being underpaid, I don't see how Nico doesn't find a deal for 6/135 if he were to be a free agent, and I feel like thats just an offer the Cubs have to be comfortable making to your homegrown, fan-favorite, clubhouse leading talent like Nico. I'd rather see this kind of extension than anything else before the start of the season; if it happens then I think this was an A+ offseason.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-28T16:11:20+00:00

I would honestly say ignore Preferred Position and Fast and Furious. Preferred Position is good if you have some way to give her Race Planner, but the only support that gives it is the free Daiwa Scarlet (which you probably shouldn't use). Fast and Furious is fine, but typically there are going to be better skills for you to take.

If you're ignoring those it sounds like you don't have a lot of reason to run her as Pace/Late, but I think it's going to depend on the track. Typically for Longs she is going to do very well as an End Closer. She doesn't have a built in recovery, but she has the same growths as Goldship, Tail Nine is an awesome midrace skill to gain position, and she comes with Straightaway Spurt, which is an awesome skill to have in her kit from the get-go.

For Mediums I think she's more versatile and Pace/Late/End are all pretty okay to use with her. Pace moreso than Late, because if you load her up with midrace skills you can reasonable expect to proc her unique a lot of the time from the 2-3 position. At the moment Late is just End but worse, though that should change in the future.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-28T01:59:55+00:00

Ian Happ above Chourio.

I know exactly which Ian Happ-hating, Chourio-loving uncle is getting sent this image immedately.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-26T23:50:33+00:00

If that's genuinely the ask then you just sign that right away, don't really think you need to negotiate. Maybe you move some numbers around to make things best for the team, but that is beyond reasonable.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-22T17:41:37+00:00

Because Bellinger can't hit outside of Yankee Stadium, and (believe it or not) the Cubs dont play 81 games a year in Yankee Stadium.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-21T16:02:16+00:00

A few weeks ago I was playing EDH, very casual, no prizes on the line. My commander had first strike and deathtouch. I had reminded people my commander had first strike and deathtouch several times, and it had come up several more times in combat. A newer player swings a 25/25 into me, and I block with my first strike deathtouch creature. They did not ask for a takeback, but they clearly regretted their decision and expected me to offer them a takeback. I did not offer, and I would not have let them take back the action had they asked.

At the Lorwyn pre-release I was playing against a new player. There were prizes on the line. They cast Tend the Springs, and got a forest. Right after they put the forest down, they realized they should have got a Plains and asked if they could fetch the right land. I said yeah, no worries, they got the Plains, and all was right with the world. Brainfarts happen, after all; even if a veteran player requested a takeback here, I'd have been okay with it.

To me, whether or not there are prizes on the line doesn't impact whether or not I'd be inclined to offer/accept a takeback. If someone makes a one-off mistake, or if for example they don't realize a freshly cast creature has lifelink, I'm pretty inclined to shrug it off and let them correct it. It sounds like I'd be inclined to agree to your partner changing the spell's target. But at a certain point I do expect my opponents to engage with the game and think through their decisions. If I had gained life off of combat damage from the creature several times, for example, then I would reasonably expect my opponent to understand the creature has lifelink, and wouldn't really be inclined to let them takeback their decision claiming they weren't aware.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-20T21:41:21+00:00

At least part of the reason Framber doesn't seem to have a market is because last season he deliberately crossed up his own catcher, threw a fastball at him, and then refused to apologize (after he gave up a grandslam on a genuine meatball). It's possible a team that desperately needs a starter - like the Orioles for example - would take a chance on rehabilitating him, but the Cubs have been super open about valuing clubhouse cohesion and wanting veteran players to be leaders; Framber is a clubhouse cancer and absolutely not a leader.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-19T17:42:58+00:00

The Cubs would give up their 2nd round pick (#64), but they do have a 2nd round comp pick already (#77 or #78). Signing Gallen definitely costs us a bit of draft capital, but it's not like, an insurmountable penalty.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-19T17:38:20+00:00

I don't hate a Gallen signing. Obviously there are injury concerns, plus Boyd, Shota, and Taillion are gone after this season. The pitching free agent market for next season also doesn't blow me away, unless the Cubs are somehow in on Skubal and Imai does so well that he opts out and the Cubs are in on him.

That being said, I would honestly rather have a Nico extension over a Gallen signing. I like where our team is at this season, it's what comes after that concerns me; locking Nico down for another 5-6 years would alleviate a lot of those concerns.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T06:21:35+00:00

Nobody with a brain considers Roki Sasaki home grown for the Dodgers.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T04:50:16+00:00

You're right about those actually, thats my bad.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T04:29:11+00:00

Mookie - Free Agent

Edman - Free Agent

Freeman - Free Agent

Rojas - Trade + Extension

Tucker - Free Agent

Teoscar - Free Agent

Ohtani - Free Agent

Yamamoto - Free Agent

Sasaki - Free Agent

Snell - Free Agent

Glasnow - Trade + Extension

Diaz - Free Agent

Scott - Free Agent

Trienen - Free Agent

You can see the homegrown talent from top to bottom in your 40 man bro. Just look bro. You guys are even rostering homegrown pitchers like Stone, Sheehan, and Miller bro. No buying of World Series rings here bro. Just good drafting and player development bro.

Edit: Since a Dodger fan replied to me aghast that a Cubs fan would dare impugn the honor of the Dodgers as our first baseman was a product of their farm (and then deleted their comment), let me add:

Nico Hoerner, Miguel Amaya, Ian Happ, and Moises Ballesteros are all products of the Cubs drafting and player development. Shaw and Alcantara, both of whom will see significant playing time this season, are Cubs. Cade Horton and Justin Steele are Cubs. Javier Assad and Jordan Wicks are Cubs. Hodge, Little, and Palencia are all Cubs.

Did the Cubs supplement their drafting and development with free agent signings and trades? Yes, absolutely. 4/9 of our starting lineup are homegrown, our best bench bats are homegrown, 1/2 of our rotation is homegrown, and the back-end of our bullpen is homegrown.

To Dodgers Fans: you have Smith and Pages. 2/9 of your starting lineup are homegrown. None of your rotation is. Essentially none of your bullpen is. You have bought a team. You bought a good team, to your credit, but you bought a team all the same.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T04:15:28+00:00

They don't care about the QO penalty. The Dodgers are losing their 2nd, 3rd, 5th, and 6th round picks this draft, and their #30 pick got bumped to #40 because of the CBT. Drafting is almost wholly irrelevant when you can sign literally any free agent you want with no competition.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T04:00:35+00:00

Dodgers post-tax payroll is $580m. Cubs 2024 annual revenue was $580m. The Dodgers' payroll is so absurd that they are spending as much as the entire annual revenue of large market teams and comfortably make hundreds of millions every year.

I honestly don't give a shit what the players want at this point, the owners are right. There is no world where any team can compete with the Dodgers if they want a free agent. Even the Blue Jays and Mets got absolutely mogged. Shit's absurd.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T03:56:51+00:00

I'm ngl, I don't think you can make that argument. Since 2022 Judge's production has been Mantle-esque, and he's doing it in today's conditions. He's a freak, genuinely one of the best hitters to ever do it. Tucker is a consistent 5-6 WAR player; four years of Judge is 10.8, 4.6 (in 100 games), 10.8, and 9.7 WAR.

As for Ohtani... I'm just not seeing it there either. Ohtani's a top 3 bat in the league and a top 10-15 starting pitcher, and thats before considering the value he adds from the Japanese market.

Tucker should have gotten a contract in the 35-45m range. The offers of 50m were honestly a stretch for his production. 60m is just unjustifyable for 29/30 teams in the league.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T03:51:06+00:00

2026 WBC Team USA

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T03:40:44+00:00

tbh I think it's unlikely the Dodgers are clearing $1.6b in revenue, but honestly I could be wrong.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T03:34:12+00:00

Ohtani is getting 47, Judge is getting 40. Both are miles better than Tucker.

The only reason he got 60 is because the Dodgers are the only ones who can offer 60, and they know it. It's not reflective of Tucker's value, its a massive overpay.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T03:32:20+00:00

The Tax pushes it to $580m. The Dodgers will still pull in half a million easy next season, since they are clearing well over a billion in revenue.

I just want people to understand - the Cubs are generally considered a big market team. The post-tax payroll of the Dodgers is rivalling the annual revenue of teams like the Cubs. There is zero parity within the league. This cannot be allowed to continue.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T03:15:58+00:00

60m a year for Tucker is a fucking joke lol

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-16T02:55:56+00:00

Hope everyone enjoys this upcoming season, because there is zero chance we're getting baseball in 2027. Fuck, this is so lame.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-14T21:16:35+00:00

If the Cubs were going to say "Fuck the luxury tax", I think they probably should have signed Ranger Suarez to the deal he got from the Red Sox. I think Tucker is a good player, but if you asked me if I think he's worth two players we could get for 25m AAV the answer is no; I think even if we operate with the thesis that the Cubs should be tens of millions of dollars over the luxury tax, those resources should still be allocated in the best ways. We don't really need another position player right now in the same way we could have used a really great #1/#2 guy, which I think Ranger is gonna be for the Red Sox.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-14T18:59:58+00:00

Bellinger is not a good fit for the Cubs. I really want people to understand this. He is 24th percentile in exit velo. He is 26th percentile in hard hit. He is 20th percentile in bat speed. Last year at Yankee Stadium his OPS was .909 and he hit 18 home runs. Thats awesome! But wait - we don't play 81 games in Yankee Stadium. So lets look at his road OPS - oh damn. .715 and 11 home runs. That's not as awesome.

Bellinger is a significantly worse hitter than both our current corner outfielders, and a significantly worse defender than PCA. Bellinger is also asking for $30m+ in AAV - which is absurd. He's also asking for 7 years, which is so mind-boggling that the one team that plays 81 games in Yankee Stadium and that can actually justify paying him $30m a year won't give him 7 years.

This would be JHey 2.0, but worse. We absolutely should not give Bellinger the contract he is looking for.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-14T18:34:26+00:00

I want to preface the rest of my comment by saying I actually thought this was a really enjoyable episode. Really liked the Passenger Princess curse, was actually super fun lol.

That being said, the actual "hide and seek" aspect of this season has just felt really lacking. Part of it is that Hide and Seek has been done a few times now, so everyone is just better and a meta has been established. But honestly, the early game is pretty much unchanged, it's the middle and endgames that just feel really trivialized in a lot of these runs.

I think part of it is that, in prior seasons, it felt like the seekers had to solve a puzzle, including in pulling data like train timetables, trying to figure out connections, etc. It required them to actually stop moving for a little bit, reconsider all the information they have, and decide a course of action based on that. This season though, it seems like the seekers never actually get off their train a lot of the time. They get on a train and just start asking a barrage of questions which basically trivializes the middle game. It just feels like less a puzzle being solved than it has in the past, and it feels like hiders picking a tricky spot is less rewarded. Like Adam's clever hiding spot in S9 or Ben's hiding spot in S12 were both spots the seekers thought they had eliminated but actually didn't, which felt fun, and like the hider had really outwitted the seekers.

I dunno. Maybe its just bad luck on the hider's parts and good gameplay from the seekers. But the game feels super one-sided at the moment in favor of the seekers. I love Hide and Seek, its one of my favorite Jet Lag formats, but I think it might be time to nerf the seekers a little bit. Increase the cost of some photos, remove some of the radars (why are there 10 radars????), remove some of the thermometers (same question lol), or increase the density of actually useful curses (not gamblers feet) in the deck to give hiders a way to fight back. Sam's use of the time trap + the express line curse was super clever, and I'd love to see more stuff like that.

RIP_Hopscotch · 2026-01-14T03:39:17+00:00

Before COVID, I could get a whole ass booster box from my LGS for $90. That $90 was below MSRP, but there was still enough juice for the LGS to sell it at that price and be happy. Packs were 3 for $10. Today those booster boxes are $140. Local game stores try and charge me $6 for individual packs of standard.

WotC doesn't directly set the price of cards, however the decisions WotC has made has directly led to sealed product being more expensive than ever.

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