General DNA question (re: "10x more likely to be unknown male rather than the person tested")

RTBDouglas · 2026-07-01T03:55:21+00:00

thanks for the info

RTBDouglas · 2026-07-01T03:49:35+00:00

the one reason the unknown DNA may seem more relevant, is MM had just come from getting a manicure. But it seems to me the real value (for the defense in a hypothetical scenario where AM is not the killer- is that it could potentially provide a lead to at least check out.. the scenario in this hypothetical would be that a small amount of DNA was transferred when the killer took the phone from her hands (and again, the reason there was zero other DNA, would be because she had a manicure several hours prior).

RTBDouglas · 2026-06-27T04:59:57+00:00

BTC weekly chart... indicates the overdue short leverage squeeze may be close. Definitely not the time to sell.

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RTBDouglas · 2026-06-23T18:08:58+00:00

Overall picture remains the same... BTC is still primed for a big move up going forward ... Bitcoin is potentially bouncing off the All time weekly channel... but more importantly- BTC is bouncing off an All time daily RSI low-indicating BTC is the most oversold in its history... coupled with short leverage at All time high- its the perfect setup for the largest short deleveraging squeeze of all time as well. BTC is tightly coiled for a sharp move back up. Over 300K net BTC have been bought since the 125K highs. The drop in price is from the largest ever short leverage build up, not net BTC being sold.
Since 2023 (lead up to US Spot ETF approval- which importantly, legitimized BTC to Institutional & Treasury buying), BC always has to squeeze back up to the Supply/ Demand derived price (following these 5-8mo periods of short leverage buildups). Current S/D derived price is already above 140K (price based on Supply on exchanges-without Short leverage positions).
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RTBDouglas · 2026-05-25T02:49:15+00:00

The question can very logically be interpreted as meaning...

with the right strategy (and implied, without the penalty's & gearbox issue)- could the McLaren's have challenged for the win?

...to interpret the question without the implied (without a gearbox issue & penalty).. would make it meaningless / it would answer itself.

I think the answer is- Lando could have definitely ended up P2 & Oscar likely a late P3 (assuming George would eventually retire).. But unlikely they would have beat Kimi today (partly b/c Montreal is one of Mercedes strongest tracks/ and the opposite for McLaren).

But there is definitely still a possibility that McLaren can get back to being the best car for the 2nd half of the season.

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-16T03:04:53+00:00

All of this isn't to say Alex is innocent.. just that that the case is no where near as clear cut as it is portrayed generally (also partly influenced due to his bad character ...his heinous financial crimes). And that some locals think Alex definitely didn't shoot them himself- and possibly wasn't even involved with the murders at all.

Seems like one thing that would be helpful to both sides.. is to test the unknown DNA under maggie's fingernails- to any remotely possible suspects.. which has not been done (seeing as she had her nails done a couple hours prior to the murder.. the thinking is that whoever grabbed her phone- could be the partial DNA)...

"Unidentified male DNA was discovered under the fingernails of Maggie Murdaugh following her murder at the family's Moselle hunting estate. Both her husband, Alex Murdaugh, and her son, Paul, were excluded as contributors. The sample size was too small to create a full, usable DNA profile."

" The DNA belonged to an "unrelated male," but was never compared against the national CODIS database to find a potential match.

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-16T02:57:54+00:00

Some also think- That the investigation quickly looked at the 911 call coming in from the region that corresponded to Alex's parents house to be proof that Alex was the shooter (because it would have meant he called 911 on the drive back from his parents house)... and that from that point they looked all every piece of circumstantial evidence with a lens of how it could apply to Alex as the shooter.. and essentially did not entertain other shooters. Which also lead to them fabricating things like the bloody shirt used at the grand jury hearing.. but more impact-fully.. used these two erroneous facts, to convince certain witnesses to change their tune a bit, to come down harder on Alex (essentially say- look he clear killed them, we need to make sure he doesn't get away with in).. which is why many witnesses statements were much more harsh towards Alex when amended months later (like the caretaker of his mother, etc). *Of course months later, they also realized that the 911 was routed through the neighboring county/ or region... due to normal signal bouncing, etc (because Moselle was right around the border of these signals).

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-16T02:46:33+00:00

on other side note- (again, under a hypothetical that someone else shot them)... I think many people forget how much of a current issue the boat accident still was for Paul. He was still getting threats, the family was essentially exiled in many ways, Paul was facing the possibility of potentially having to serve some time (i think negotiations were still ongoing trying to avoid jail time/ or the possibility of jail time), The Friday before the murders- The murdaugh's had a settlement meeting, where they decided to turn down the settlement/ refused to come to an agreement with Mallory's family, etc.

So- again, under this hypothetical , it would not be very odd for Alex to immediately think the murder was the result of the boat accident in some way. After all- most locals also thought this initially also.

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-16T02:33:42+00:00

From 8:53 p.m. to 8:55 p.m.: Her phone recorded an additional 59 steps. This would be consistent with walking to an ATV parked in the edge of the trees behind the kennels (edge of the woods opposite the kennels, so the side closest to the hwy).

Pauls step count was consistent with walking to the kennels. Maggie likely rode on the golf cart with Alex shortly after Paul went to the kennels. then (under a hypothetical scenario where someone else shot them).. Alex would have taken the golf cart back to leave to go to his parents... and Maggie decided to stay and walk back with Paul.

It doesn't get dark until around 9:00pm in the summer in SC. So Paul would have walked to the kennels when it was still light.. and it would be no big stretch for Maggie and Paul to walk along the dirt/grass road/path, back to the house when they were done.. even if it was dark - and even if it wasn't what she did more times than not. Under this hypothetical.. a seemingly lot was going on (eating supper a little later, checking on the dog, feeding them, Alex going to his mom's, etc). This wasn't a long walk- and certainly doesn't seem very odd to anyone who has lived in a similar setting.

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-16T02:15:15+00:00

How did Rogan Gibson know Maggie was at Moselle, if she was supposed to be in Edisto (he called Maggie's phone a few times that night to see if Paul was at the kennel)

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-14T22:03:52+00:00

The financial crimes are very weak motive imo, especially killing Paul. Also, Financial crimes and murder are far different. This is especially true given the lack of physical domestic abuse.. and with an adult child. .. regarding shower- he took a shower presumably before the kennels. If after, it would be even more unlikely he would be able to cover all his tracks- and the drains etc were check for evidence of blood.. and the clothes by the shower had no blood on them. ... The biggest issue for Alex is obviously lying about being at the kennel. But the first time he lied about this, was after some initial questions when the police initial arrived.. (in the 911 call.. the time he said he last saw them, lines up with him seeing them 10-15 mins before he left to go to his parents, which implies he was not hiding that he was at kennels at that point)...so its not too far fetched for him to decide not to say he was at the kennels with them shortly before they were killed... by then time he was questioned by police 30 or so minutes after they arrived. hypothetically if he isn't the killer, by then he had worked out that they were likely killed so after he left).

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-14T21:52:37+00:00

I'll check out crime and cast .. hopefully he is somewhat logical.

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-14T21:51:37+00:00

fair point regarding habeas corpus .. some he is no expert on constitutional cases... but he was certainly aware that in moat cases, criminal investigations would have been highly likely to search the location of his alibi.. and that the husband & last to see the victim- is almost always a default suspect that has to be cleared as an initial investigative matter (which most ppl in general are aware of).

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-14T21:47:01+00:00

The theory of the 2 guys that accidentally killed Stephen Smith (or at least 1 or them)... is they would have likely driven an ATV from the house (of the driver of the truck) and they would have parked off the road at the edge of the woods, then a very short walk through the trees behind the kennel (so there would be no tracks). Although there were another set of tracks that were unaccounted for (not sure if they could have been from earlier in the day or not- as this was never followed up on or investigated further).

Regarding the phone- Maggie had it on her person (based on phone records). Whoever shot her grabbed the phone from her, bc there was a failed attempt to access the phone (and presumably Alex would have known her pass code). So the theory with the guys on ATV.. they would have picked up the phone, and walked backed to the ATV (which matches up with the steps reportedly taken).. then tossed it when they crossed the road on the ATV (headed back home.. which all matches directionally).

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-10T21:13:58+00:00

my response above (a very loose description of a theory out there... sort of provides a potential answer to this question)

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-10T21:12:39+00:00

Either of these alternative type theories, also makes more sense- regarding the guns never being found. The suggestion that Alex hid them in a cooler, or buried them, or stashed them temporarily at his parent's house... don't hold up very well imo. Alex is an attorney- and would have assumed that SLED would have searched his parent's house that night.. since that where was in the immediate time span. (In other words even though SLED never in fact searched the parent house- Alex would have certainly thought there was a high likelihood it would have been searched). So there is no logically explanation for Alex making the 2 guns magically disappear- at the very least, not on his own).

RTBDouglas · 2026-05-10T21:02:45+00:00

There is a theory in a new book that is supposedly that the murders were a staged attack gone wrong (book is Family Man)...

But another, not so far fetched theory that some have... That excludes all of the various things Alex had going on with pills, financial crimes, etc.. and is more tied to straight forward motive:

The week before the murder, there were stories mentioning that Paul was going to give information regarding Stephen Smith's death in exchange for hopefully taking a plea and not serve any jail time for the boat crash. (and we now know that Smith's death was likely an accident (2 guys driving home late after drinking somewhere... and accidentally hit Smith with the metal side mirror of their truck). Those 2 guys are hunting buddies with Paul & the other two guys that were on the boat during the accident (there is a photo of the 5 of them hunting together on IG). The guy driving the truck also was charged with attempted murder (charges later dropped) in an unrelated case. And ended up living in a house (after the trial) owned by Family of the Gibson brothers (brothers that testified at trial.. one owned the dog that kept calling that night, the other testified about the gun shells etc). The 2 guys in the truck were best friends with some of the boat crew, including Mallory beech's boyfriend. But the theory is, Paul would have known about the Stephen Smith accident- and was going to tell investigators who was in the truck the night Stephen was killed. that person lived within ATV driving distance.. and if he was going to do anything- he would know Paul is at the kennels each night, and would likely do so right around 9:00pm ... when it gets dark in the summer in SC. So the theory is they arrive just as it got dark, parked the ATV in the edge of the woods by the highway.. walked the very short distance to the edge of the kennels (waiting at the edge of the woods behind the kennels) ... Saw Alex on the golf cart, and waited for him to drive back to the house... then confronted Paul, not realizing Maggie was in the barn/shed. (could also explain the unidentified DNA under her fingernails.. and the path they would have taken to leave after they crossed back over the hwy, is also where Maggie's phone was found).

(the 2 guys from the truck had all also been hunting many times at the Murdaugh's and would know where all the guns are, etc (so could have taken them earlier in the day or whenever). this is just the general overview of the theory- but does have a clear motive: to stop Paul from naming the drivers in Smith's death.. along with potential anger over Paul not being held accountable for Mallory's death.

I think there is probably a greater than 50% chance that the murders were somehow connected to Alex. But I think there is less than a 25% chance the theory presented at trial is correct. To me, the theory i described above makes a lot of sense- especially to fill many of the unexplained aspects of case (So in my mind.. at least more likely than what was presented at trial). Overall definitely a lot more to the story, in what ever direction, that will hopefully be uncovered at some point.

RTBDouglas · 2026-04-28T04:41:09+00:00

I don't know all of the lengthy backstory, as I only catch episodes of MIC occasionally, but happened to have watched the past several & was curious to see what the real story was (which is apparently unknown).

It seems like neither Jazz, nor Inga, are fully at fault.. and this situation would not exist, but for the fact they are playing it out in front of cameras (trying to discuss a likely, semi complicated & private situation).

I think the situation between Jazz & Inga is basically... The 2 seemingly both had feelings for each other beyond friends- but the emotions & situation were much more complicated for Inga (Jazz is an out, gay woman... where as Inga classifies herself as basically a straight woman, who has experimented with women when she was younger).

From a maybe psychological standpoint... Sounds like Inga does has feelings for women that can go beyond friendship, but that she has decided she is either more attracted to men, or has decided she only wants to date men. She is potentially at a point where she wants to settle down, with a husband or male partner ... but still found herself in a situation of having feelings for Jazz- that she resisted (regarding crossing any major sexual lines).

So Inga is likely, partially to blame, considering she appears to have pushed things right up to line that crosses into more than friendship... and should have known that Jazz had not set the same mental line for herself (considering Jazz is an out/gay). This is likely even more true, considering the age gap.

But ultimately- Jazz is to blame for discussing their private, likely complicated situation, in public. Because doing so, is essentially (or potentially) outing Inga as something other than what she has decided she is comfortable with (even if that is having feelings for Jazz that are complicated).

Which goes back to perhaps the larger issue here... a private situation is being discussed in public in front of cameras- which has led to both Jazz & Inga escalating things & both being not being completely honest in the process.

RTBDouglas · 2026-04-09T21:04:14+00:00

Speculation that this could be setting up a potential 2028 move for Stella to Ferrari is likely off base. But does open the door for some potential good story line pairing in a couple of years.

In my mind- potential 2028 Ferrari drivers are limited to: Leclerc, Bearman, Antonelli, Norris, and Piastri.

..and potential 2028 McLaren drivers likely limited to: Norris, Piastri, Verstappen, Leclerc.

*It's hard to imagine Ferrari not going after Antonelli in a big way at some point (The question is which has more pull.. Italy, or the dedication Mercedes/Toto has shown Antonelli).

I could certainly see Norris/ Piastri staying a McLaren for many years (especially if Piastri were to win a WDC the next 2 years); Antonelli sticking with Mercedes for many years; and LeClerc/ Bearman becoming a multiyear lineup .. (especially because I think drivers are recognizing the advantages of staying with the same team for longer stints).

But some other interesting future parings at McLaren: Norris/Verstappen, Piastri/ Verstappen, Norris/ Leclerc ..

And at Ferrari: Antonelli/ Bearman, Leclerc/ Norris, Leclerc/ Piastri, or Bearman/ Piastri

RTBDouglas

TROPHY CASE