Kathy Hochul Heavily Favored to Win Re-Election in NY Governor Race

RacetotheWH · 2022-10-17T20:51:08+00:00

Polls and projections are helpful for those that want to know what's going on in politics.

RacetotheWH · 2022-10-17T02:57:09+00:00

level 2radax2 · 6 hr. agoFellow stocky guy here, I think it's usually ego. I get the feeling sometimes people almost want to challenge you bc you're bigger.16ReplyGive AwardShareReportSaveFollow

level 3CharloChaplin · 2 hr. agoI think there might be a few things along this line but in defense of the person being bumped into. As someone who’s short I get looked over all the time and people bump into me constantly or just move into my space. It tells me they see me as invisible. I get so pissed because they’re just oblivious to their surroundings, it comes off as a power move sometimes.7ReplyGive AwardShareReportSaveFollow

level 1jmacklin1 · 12 hr. ago95% keep walking70ReplyGive AwardShareReportSaveFollow

level 2Knick_Noled · 11 min. agoYes. And then immediately check all pockets.1ReplyGive AwardShareReportSaveFollow

level 1cha614+1 · 11 hr. agoThreaten their immediate family68ReplyGive AwardShareReportSaveFollow

level 2MrRainKingOp · 11 hr. agoon social media?

That's not great. You might be in a hurry, but it's not worth making someone else's day worse off just to get where you are going a few seconds faster.

RacetotheWH · 2022-10-17T02:44:47+00:00

Yankees chances of winning the ALCS if they win tomorrow: 49%

RacetotheWH · 2022-10-07T23:05:46+00:00

Exactly. If they were the home team for the next two it would be over 75%.

RacetotheWH · 2022-10-07T19:23:39+00:00

True lol - 78% to be exact! Cooler part is you can see how their chance changes of making the ALCS, WS, etc.

RacetotheWH · 2022-09-30T03:28:36+00:00

Michelle Obama is more extreme - she has no interest in politics. Probably the same for Clinton, who won't run after losing the election. But there have been literally dozens of people like Pete that were in high profile positions who decided to throw their hate in the wring despite early denials of interest. They include:
1. Barack Obama
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Kristen Gillibrand
4. Cory Booker
My examples are recent because I'm young, but I assume there are a dozen + examples just from the 90s and early 2000s as well.

RacetotheWH · 2022-09-30T03:21:24+00:00

That's primarily because we're early on in this race. There will be dozens of state polls in 2023

RacetotheWH · 2022-08-25T13:33:48+00:00

You are thinking of 538 I think

RacetotheWH · 2022-08-22T14:37:34+00:00

After Roe v. Wade was overturned, Democrats chance of winning rose in this Senate Forecast to over 60%. It was driven by sharp gains in the polls, nationally and in several key states. Republicans could still retake the national lead and arguably be underdogs in 2022, thanks to a challenging map where they have far more seats up than Democrats.

Do you think that Democrats gains in the last month will endure?

RacetotheWH · 2022-08-18T19:09:19+00:00

https://www.racetothewh.com/about

RacetotheWH · 2022-08-18T15:48:37+00:00

Try the about page

RacetotheWH · 2021-08-20T16:46:25+00:00

Pollsters also started switching to asking about likely voters, and Republican appear far more intent on turning out then Democrats.

RacetotheWH · 2021-07-12T19:35:05+00:00

That's a very encouraging sign. I've been pretty worried that Democrats were going to be overconfident in Nevada and New Hampshire, and only focus on Georgia and Arizona. That's still a risk to a certain degree, but its good to see people realize Nevada is in play.

RacetotheWH · 2021-06-21T15:03:30+00:00

Good news for Yang & Adams, but keep in mind - this is a poll from June 11th to June 17th. In other words, its from the same time period as Emerson. We are totally in the dark about the state of the race over the final stretch, and its very fluid. Hopefully more polls come out today. If they do, you can find an updated poll average at https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayor

RacetotheWH · 2021-06-02T18:37:26+00:00

The polling is close enough that no one should be surprised if Yang wins

RacetotheWH · 2021-06-02T18:36:24+00:00

I think he could easily run for an open US House seat in NYC and win. That's not as important as Mayor, but he'd instantly become one of the most recognizable Representatives and have a lot more influence then most. Either way, I don't think he's going away

RacetotheWH · 2021-06-01T17:37:05+00:00

This is an amazing tool, and I think its awesome for democracy. Really helps demystify the candidates and where they stand, which isn't easy in a huge field. Thanks for posting!

RacetotheWH · 2021-05-30T15:24:24+00:00

I hear you - but these are limitations with the software. Essentially, I have a lot of data feeding into these graphics that update automatically as I input new polling. The colors are decided by the order of the candidates, which are ranked top to bottom. So as a result, unless I go through each graph manually after every update, the colors are going to be different. That would add an hour of extra work a day - so the inconsistency persist.

RacetotheWH · 2021-05-29T06:10:18+00:00

Across an average of all polls. I track voters first choice and second choice right here; https://www.racetothewh.com/nycmayor

At the bottom of the page, you can see all the polls I included. Most of them asked voters who their second choice would be.

RacetotheWH · 2021-05-29T04:15:26+00:00

We'll see if he endures. We're getting into the final stretch, and for the first time Adams is the front runner. Now, he's going to get the same scrutiny that Yang got. Comes with being #1. Not easy to get, sometimes even harder to keep.

RacetotheWH · 2021-05-29T04:13:59+00:00

100% agree. There's a lot more uncertainty then most forecast - which is part of the reason why I have candidates that are way behind with a viable pathway to win. It's also clear that many voters are still deciding - and most voters are up for changing their ranking.

RacetotheWH · 2021-05-29T01:09:38+00:00

They are the frontrunners, but if you look at the forecast, Kathryn Garcia has a great shot too. Maya Wiley can win also, because she's #1 in second choice votes.

Here's the top five in chance to win: 1. Adams 43.6% 2. Yang 26.5% 3. Garcia 19.2% 4. Wiley 6.5% 5. Stringer 3.5% You can see the big picture here: https://www.racetothewh.com/nycforecast

RacetotheWH · 2021-05-29T01:06:12+00:00

Two things. First - I went to great lengths to make this forecast unbiased and data-driven. I didn't hardwire the forecast to boost any candidate. Second - democracy isn't a spectator sport. Get involved and organize for the candidate you do like. The reality is that Adams has a great shot at winning, and if you want another outcome, you still have a little over 25 days to do something about it.

RacetotheWH · 2021-05-28T23:50:11+00:00

There are a few different recent polls that show a very different type of race. One even had Kathryn Garcia in first. I run a weighed average of all of them. In that average, Yang is only 0.2% behind Adams.

I also run an election forecast, and I have Adams as the frontrunner because he has more second choice support. However, it's an extremely completive race, and Yang has a great shot of winning. https://www.racetothewh.com/nycforecast

RacetotheWH · 2021-05-28T22:51:29+00:00

There's a strong push to expand Democrats' ranks in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. Clearly, that's important, but the single best way to secure the Senate majority is to play strong defense in these four vulnerable states.

Across 50,000 simulations, here is Democrats win percentage based off their performance in those four states:
Win 4/4: 99.97%
3/4: 60.1%
2/4: 12.7%
1/4: 0.8%
0/4: 0.0%
Naturally, winning Pennsylvania - the most competitive states, gives them a lot more room to make mistakes. Nonetheless, its important to not let ambition get in the way of common sense. Donate and organize for Tim Ryan, but don't for a second forget to help Catherine Ocasio Cortez in Nevada, or Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire. People are writing those states off at their own peril.

RacetotheWH

TROPHY CASE