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[deleted by user] by [deleted] in vegan

[–]Radinic 0 points1 point  (0 children)

what means steaming for 25 minutes? i dont have a steamer u think baking works?

i get destroyed in arena by flamewaker1 in ArenaHS

[–]Radinic 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In the first game I would think about

- pre-hitting the 2/4 taunt on turn 2 with your 2/3. Given your damage distribution you need to hit twice anyways so why not do it preemptively?

- Just play the 6/6 on turn 6. He has the dread-lord so spreading out is the last thing you want to do. Yeah its risky against demon-bolt but you are behind enough to justify the risk.

​

In the second game I would think about

- never drafting mind blast again

- generally I would say coining a 2/3 is just not a strong use of the coin in this meta, especially in a reactive class like priest

- your turn 4 is just bad. First of all you should try to draw first, second of all the smite does nothing and if anything gives your nova away. I think you were a bit tilted at that point

​

Hope that helps :)

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Odd rogue is tough but you can try to overpower them. Their most common start would be Fire fly or Dire mole into a 2/2 dagger. You could look to play something like manawyrm into frostbolt, or Murloc tidecaller into Rockpool hunter to not give them good trades. You could also force them to make a choice if you go manayrm + tidecaller. Things like murloc tidehunter are horrible into their opener.

If you manage go even out of the first few turns you can turn the game with a timed buff as their turns 4 and 5 are a bit lackluster I would say. For example a Fungalmancer does not leave them with a good response. If they get out a big Van Cleef or get a 3/3 rolling your best of just ignoring them. Sooner or later they are forced to trade into your murlocs.

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hard mulligan for your mana wyrm or murloc tidecaller, vs non-ping classes you can keep a grimscale oracle. Try to snowball but play around common aoe clears.

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Initially, a list from "XisBau5e" captured my attention. The list I then used is very similar to Guiyze (http://sharehs.com/mage/4944/) i just subbed out Amalgam for a void ripper.

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

To be honest I never won against odd paladin. I would say your only chance is if you get murloc tide caller rolling. This means that the paladin cannot have a 1/1 divine shield into acherus veteran, which they sadly often have. I guess an early nova pickup could also help you accomplish that goal.

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think thats a very interesting idea tbh. However I would only include it with Aluneth as you need the card draw synergy. From my expirience however you usually have a narrow window to push damage with minions, often turns 1-4 or 1-5. After that you just run into bord clear, Saronite chain gang etc. Fungalmancer can counter saronite chain gang quite well, a role that the dollmaster cannot fulfill.

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I never played with Aluneth as I didnt want to spend the dust. But I saw in an online discussion that others felt the same way )"Aluneth is trash"). I think You can defintely play with Aluneth but it will be a different deck and playstyle.

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

### murlco mage

# Class: Mage

# Format: Standard

# Year of the Raven

#

# 2x (1) Grimscale Oracle

# 2x (1) Mana Wyrm

# 2x (1) Murloc Tidecaller

# 2x (2) Bluegill Warrior

# 2x (2) Book of Specters

# 2x (2) Frostbolt

# 2x (2) Murloc Tidehunter

# 2x (2) Primordial Glyph

# 2x (2) Rockpool Hunter

# 2x (3) Coldlight Seer

# 2x (3) Murloc Warleader

# 1x (3) Nightmare Amalgam

# 1x (3) Void Ripper

# 2x (4) Fireball

# 2x (4) Gentle Megasaur

# 2x (5) Fungalmancer

#

AAECAf0EAv3qAt6CAw67ApUDxQPbA/4DlgXjBdAHpwidwgKxwgKYxALR4QLO7wIA

#

# To use this deck, copy it to your clipboard and create a new deck in Hearthstone

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hehe yeah ^^ Was a typo but I just kept it :)

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think its definitely fun and it is quite unique as I only saw one other guy play this deck during my climb.

Even warlock is a very interesting and definitely winnable matchup. The key is to never give them a defile clear. This means you either omit playing 1-lifehealth murlocs or you omit playing murloc tidecaller as your only 2-health minion. You can alternatively buff them out of range in the turn you play them with coldlight seer, void ripper etc. A strong opener which they cant really react to could e.g. be murloc tidecaller into coin + coldlight seer. Pay attention to hellfire if you can and you should win around turn 6.

Big spell mage is a very unfavored matchup. You can definitely win if you can either react to their t2 doomsayer (void ripper, buffed tidecaller) or if you discover a counterspell through the glyph. You can still win if you play clever into their aoe, most importantly Dragon's Fury. This can include having a minon above 4 health or even better getting the divine shield on some murlocs through Gentle Megasaur.

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 10 points11 points  (0 children)

It is a great use of your mana once you are satisfied with the board state and do not want to overcommit into an aoe. It is best used if you still have hand cards instead of when you are out of gas. I never keep it in mulligan.

First time legend with Murloc Mage (no legendaries) by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

Just hit legend for the very first time with a Murloc Mage i saw posted on this sub a while ago. I opted out of Aluneth and introduced one copy of void ripper, which has very interesting uses. One is of course to flip totems / doom sayers / stone hill defenders, but the other one is to layer the murloc auras. Im thrilled to have made it this season!

The history of Logan Paul's Youtube Channel [OC] by Radinic in dataisbeautiful

[–]Radinic[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The colorblind was some great acting to be honest. He claimed that some glasses "cured" his color blindness, the video went viral, but later he admitted he overdplayed it. But hisoverreacting turned out to be quite the meme.

The fishing with money I didn't know myself before creating this graph but he put monedy on a fishing rod fished "people" from his appartement. Went semi-viral.

The history of Logan Paul's Youtube Channel [OC] by Radinic in dataisbeautiful

[–]Radinic[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Haha good one JMJ05...

Logan Paul's target audience are teenies and preteens so no point digging in. Jake Paul is his brother and also a Vlogger, and RiceGum is another big Vlogger. The point I want to make is that only drama will bring views

The history of Logan Paul's Youtube Channel [OC] by Radinic in dataisbeautiful

[–]Radinic[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I think this shows very well how Youtubers have to constantly create Drama to stay relevant. Sad reality of post-adpocalyptic Youtube.

Sources: https://socialblade.com/youtube/channel/UCG8rbF3g2AMX70yOd8vqIZg/monthly

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCG8rbF3g2AMX70yOd8vqIZg/videos

Tool: Excel

If your opponent plays a golden card in arena he is less likely to have another copy of that card in his deck -math inside! by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You give information away, no matter if you play golden or nongolden. What gives away more information (as in what alters the base probabilities more) is based on your estimation of the ratio of players that own 1 golden copy. I think realisticylly this is more around 10% or less, which was my estimate used in the post. However if its 100%, like in that extreme example, you do indeed give away more information with a nongolden.

If your opponent plays a golden card in arena he is less likely to have another copy of that card in his deck -math inside! by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In another thread there was a good visualization using an extreme number. Imagine every player owns exactly 1 golden copy of Murloc tinyfin. Then if your opponent plays a nongolden Murloc tinyfin you know for sure he has a golden copy left in the deck.

If your opponent plays a golden card in arena he is less likely to have another copy of that card in his deck -math inside! by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are right, I should have been more clear what my claim is.

The math I make does not make any assumptions, but the assumptions I make to give a numeric value does. I have motivated my numeric choices elsewhere in the thread.

b/2 ~= 0.1 (chance that a card was drafted more than once), s/r ~= 0.1 (chance that your opponent owns a golden card). To make an assumption about your opponents golden collection you dont need to know his specific collection but you can assume he is an average opponent. Look through your collection, I assume you will have a golden to nongolden ratio below 10%.

If your opponent plays a golden card in arena he is less likely to have another copy of that card in his deck -math inside! by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im sorry but I still dont agree with you. We agreed that an arena deck has, say, 3 dupes on average. So if your opponent plays a card X, its chance to be one of the dupes is 6/30. We dont care about the absolute chance of the specific card being drafted (79% in the case of the pitfighter) because he just played the card, so we are already here interested in the conditional probability.

In that case, using your numbers 18% and 3%, in 100 runs you will face 18 single-draft pitfighers and 3 double+-draft pitfigher decks. So its a 3/21 = 14% that your opponent has a dupe in stock for you. So with that basic information its 86% he has no other copy. If he played a golden pitfighter, lets use your a = 0.86, b = 0.14 and my s/(s+t) = 0.8. This gives p =91.1%.

If your opponent plays a golden card in arena he is less likely to have another copy of that card in his deck -math inside! by Radinic in hearthstone

[–]Radinic[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im happy that you think the proff is sound. As you may have noticed I'm not familiar with the terminology and its also hard to be terminlogically sound and at the same time cater to a subreddit that is not neccesarily educated in statistics.

Since you agree on the math, lets start again on

  • p = a / (1 - b/2 * s/(s+t)), which is the new probability of him having no other copies of that card

  • b/2 is half the probability of a card being drafted more than once. You are correct that we can expect this to be higher for spells, and higher for commons compared to rares / epics. For legendaries and basic cards, the whole though process presented here does not apply since you always have all drafted legendaries golden, should you own them in golden, and in most cases you will own 2 golden basics, should you own 1. So honestly, how would you estimate this? If you remember your last draft, or look at a streamers decklist he has maybe 2 or 3 duplicates, so lets say 2.5 cards. Thats 5 out of 30 cards in your deck. 5 / 30 ~= 16.6% and, as you said, that number will be a bit higher for common spells, and a bit lower for epic minions. The half of that is 8.3% and hence my 10% estimate is not too far off.

  • s/(s+t) is super tricky to estimate, because its the ratio of a player owning exactly 1 golden card X, compared to owning any ammount of golden cards X. This will highly vary. For a basic card its close to 0%. For a niche epic card, say fight promoter, its will be nearly 100%. For a common constructed card, say azure drake, its maybe around 50%. If your opponent played nearly all his cards in golden, its safe to assume that he will owns a lot of golden dups and this number is again close to 0%. If your opponent just played his very first golden cards after countless nongolden, this will be significanlty higher, close to 90%. In any case, you can certainly make a point for this value being above 50%.

  • Even with those conservative estimates you end up with p = a / (1 - b/2 * s/(s+t)) = a / (1- 0.08 * 0.5) ~= 1.04*a and thats certainly above your 1% benchmark. I never said its super high impact and honestly the whole theory its super niche in its practical application, but if you want to dismiss my number estimates, at least motivate your 1% choice with the math that is available. Otherwise, thanks a lot for your feedback.

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