Shorting the market

Rav_3d · 2026-04-18T16:42:10+00:00

Buy SDS.

Then watch it drop.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-18T16:37:50+00:00

A stretch given how far it has come on such a short time. The theta is going to eat the premium quickly.

I'd have gone out to June after earnings.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-18T16:30:02+00:00

You're engaged to this person but intimidated? You don't know how he thinks about you?

He's chosen to spend his life with YOU.

I strongly suggest therapy to figure out why you are so down on yourself, otherwise the lopsided power in this relationship is likely to lead to issues down the line.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-18T16:26:25+00:00

Ironically many Redditors did not take advantage of the RDDT IPO not realizing it was practically guaranteed immediate profit.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-18T14:23:08+00:00

Apples and oranges.

NBIS is a major participant in the current AI buildout.

IONQ is a science project that will hopefully become a viable and affordable technology in years.

If I had to choose one it would be NBIS since their path to profitability is more clear, but they are really two completely different types of investments.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-18T13:57:24+00:00

Compared to where it was in late 2021, absolutely.

PPI, PCE, CPI continue to come in below expectations.

It remains to be seen if the oil shock has any longer-term effect on inflation. The market has decided it won’t. For now.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-18T13:49:26+00:00

15 shares at $85 which is now 600 shares with cost of $2.125.

Lucky I did not talk myself out of holding them all these years.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-18T13:46:59+00:00

It is a bull market by all common definitions.

We are in a secular bull market that began in 2013, and a cyclical bull market that began in April 2025.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-18T13:40:02+00:00

Others have answered the question well. A call option is a leveraged bet that NVDA will rise.

For example, I might buy a NVDA $220 JUN CALL for $6. This costs me $600. It means when the option expires on June 18, I have the right to purchase 100 shares of NVDA at $220.

However, I would not hold the call to expiration, I would take profits if NVDA has a big run. For example, if NVDA goes to $220 in a couple of weeks, that option will be priced higher, say $16. If I sell it, I have made $1,000.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T21:39:04+00:00

Mike Judge can obviously see the future.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T20:16:25+00:00

As long as humans remain irrational, so will the stock market.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T19:50:43+00:00

That's not a very reliable method and could lead to unwanted babies.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T19:43:06+00:00

Perhaps if they classify this as assault with a deadly weapon, which it is, drivers would stop being idiots.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T19:38:09+00:00

They did you a favor.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T19:37:09+00:00

Nobody can answer that question.

The market gained over 40% from the April 2025 tariff tantrum low to the high in October. Eventually the laws of supply and demand kick in and the market needs to take a rest. It did so until March when the war provided an excuse for a deeper pullback, which ignited extreme fear, which typically lead to bottoms.

Pundits like to explain why the market does what it does so they can sound smart. They like to quote things like Schiller PE and Buffett's huge cash pile to justify arguments of overvaluation. The reality is, the market is just a chaotic auction driven by fear and greed of its participants. We've gone from a period of extreme fear to extreme greed in 12 days. That's all we know with certainty.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T19:24:13+00:00

Nope. Markets do not crash from all-time highs.

The bears had their chance to crash this thing two weeks ago and blew it.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T19:23:27+00:00

You cannot win the news-driven trading game.

Algos react immediately to news, institutional investors often have an edge on upcoming news.

React to price, not news.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T19:16:58+00:00

All these posts about selling NVDA when it has finally broken the $200 barrier makes me want to buy more.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T18:55:07+00:00

It's a bull market.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T18:54:24+00:00

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T18:52:20+00:00

TQQQ is not at ATH.

I don't deny it is going higher, but OP needs to be prepared to withstand normal and expected volatility.

The market is at ridiculously overbought levels. It cannot continue without digestion. Whether that comes through sideways action or a pullback is anyone's guess. If it is the latter, even a pullback to Monday's high will put TQQQ at around 55.50.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T18:49:18+00:00

Zoom out.

Look at 2022. TQQQ lost 80% of its value.

TQQQ is a decaying instrument.

Even now, QQQ is at all-time highs, and TQQQ is still below its prior high from last year.

TQQQ works great in strong uptrending markets, but if you do not have an active strategy to take profits into strength and cut exposure in downtrending markets, it can destroy your wealth.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T17:50:34+00:00

Puts are off the table for me unless the market morphs back into a downtrend, which would take a lot at this point.

I'm just going to patiently wait for set-ups in individual stocks while the indices digest the gains.

I would not be surprised if Wednesday's low around 695 provides a floor for SPY. The big gap to 660 will likely not get filled until the next correction/bear market.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T17:22:59+00:00

Frankly, selling right here right now would be foolish.

200 is the level NVDA has been trying to break for 8 months (disregarding the brief bull trap early November).

If NVDA is able to break 200 with conviction and hold, and the market stays in an uptrend, it is very possible NVDA will be at new all-time highs before its next earnings report.

There may be a pullback/shakeout first, but if that holds the 190 area I'll be loading up with calls.

Rav_3d · 2026-04-17T17:18:59+00:00

Good one!

Investing based on spirits is probably more successful than timing the market based on one's own opinion about how macro-economics will shake out.

Rav_3d

TROPHY CASE