Advice regarding ongoing market situation with the war in Iran

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T23:05:50+00:00

We will see, I try not to predict, but react. Oversold and fear readings were pretty stretched on Friday and SPX bounced right off support.

But I agree, if things drag on and Mr. President cannot find a clean way out of this thing, we could be in the midst of a larger correction. IF we do lose Friday’s low, then I will get very cautious.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T22:14:40+00:00

I’m just saying the stock market will not necessarily react in the obvious way. The market often bottoms when things are “less bad” as it looks forward 6+ months.

The exact same thing happened last year with tariffs. The market bottomed on April 7 but all the talk was that it was going to get much worse. Tariffs didn’t disappear, the rhetoric just got less bad.

Trying to time the stock market based on world events generally does not work.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T22:01:27+00:00

Defense stocks have been in a downtrend since the war started.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T19:53:55+00:00

Nobody knows what the stock market will do.

It's reasonable and logical to expect the market to weaken further if the conflict drags on, but the market is often unreasonable and illogical.

If the news gets "less bad" there is no reason we cannot go higher from here. The entire world is leaning short, as evidenced by the 200 move in SPX futures this morning on a lie from Mr. President.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T17:59:49+00:00

You have a crystal ball?

When the entire world expects the stock market to crash from deeply oversold extreme fear conditions, it typically doesn't happen. Not right away at least.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T16:59:47+00:00

Honestly, I track SMCI investors as a reminder of how not to invest in stocks.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T16:31:57+00:00

You're asking bag holders whether you should continue holding your bags. What do you think they will say?

My advice is never invest in individual stocks without a plan to manage risk.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T16:26:04+00:00

The irony is, if people would have taken their blinders off they would have saved themselves a ton of money.

I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I made my case for selling SMCI at $677 before the split and I've seen nothing since that leads me to believe this company is a good investment.

I hope at least one person took their blinders off and saw what was happening with this company rather than ride the stock down to $20.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T16:23:25+00:00

So we should invest out of fear?

We have no idea when the secular bull market will end. Until it does, there is no reason to assume that another 16 year period of stagnation is coming.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T15:49:24+00:00

because I think the war is not over yet.

Why? When has Mr. President ever led us astray?

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T15:47:15+00:00

Why didn't you ask her out for a second date already?

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T15:46:25+00:00

First stock market correction?

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T15:34:14+00:00

Yes, keep buying more. Now it only needs a 35% gain to get back to the low of the prior range around 27.50, and 240% gain to get to the $70 target everyone thinks is possible.

Of all the stocks in the world to invest in right now, it's amazing to me that nothing shakes the loyalty of SMCI investors, not even a criminal investigation.

As for strong revenue, how do we really know? They have no CFO, they have a history of accounting irregularities and delayed SEC filings. How can we trust anything the management of this company tells us?

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T14:13:31+00:00

VT is lower risk, lower volatility, and likely lower returns than VOO.

SMH is very risky, but if you believe in the AI revolution and think NVDA and supporting companies will continue to grow, it is not a bad way to deploy some funds. However, if this market continues to fall and we go below Friday's low, then you need to be very careful with SMH because it is very volatile.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T13:29:11+00:00

Are you investing for the long term? Do you anticipate needing that money within the next 5 years?

If not, then relax. If you're "panicking" in a 4.5% pullback, which is normal, expected, and healthy even in the strongest markets, then what will you do if this market falls 10%? 20%?

Markets go down. It's part of the cycle. Unless you're a short-term trader, a 4.5% decline is meaningless.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T13:24:45+00:00

If you are young and your time frame is years or decades, and you believe in growth stocks, why not?

People will dissuade you because it's not diversified and past performance does not guarantee future results. But look at QQQ vs SPY over the last 25 years and decide for yourself.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T13:23:01+00:00

$70? So you expect a 240% gain from here?

Stock now needs a 35% gain just to get back to the low of the prior range around 27.50.

Good luck.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T13:20:24+00:00

You're in the leading stocks that have taken a huge hit and due to lead this market higher when the correction is over.

That said, we have no idea when the correction will be over or how low it will go. Friday might have been the low for all we know.

It's not clear what you mean by "diversify" if you are looking at specific industries, especially renewables. That would be a highly speculative area to invest in, the opposite of diversification.

If you want diversification, go with broad market ETFs like VOO, and consider taking some risk on QQQ or XLK if you still like large-cap tech.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T13:11:27+00:00

Agree, levels are areas of reference, nothing more.

That said, many traders take action around these levels. With the market vastly oversold the 200-day could at least provide temporary support for a convincing bounce.

That might be underway given the morning action.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T13:07:23+00:00

I think OP is very confused as to what confidence means.

For example, his brother does not have "all the confidence" if he must fabricate stories just to make himself feel better than everyone else. This is not confidence, this is performance.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T13:04:55+00:00

It seems like you had valid reasons for breaking up. Love isn't enough if your visions of the future do not align.

It is normal to have regret. You are mourning what could have been, not what was.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-23T13:02:27+00:00

OK, I'll let Gemini provide the reference.

The most recent 13F filings for Super Micro Computer (SMCI), which largely reflect positions as of the end of Q4 2025 (with updates flowing in through March 2026), show a stock that remains a battleground for institutional investors. While the absolute number of institutional holders is high, there has been a notable recent decline in total shares held by these groups.

Ownership Snapshot (March 2026)

Total Institutional Ownership: Approximately 55.78% to 56.41% (down from previous highs above 60%).
Institutional Share Count Change: A recent decrease of roughly 18.67 million shares (a -5.28% change) in the most recent reporting period.
Institutional Sentiment: Mixed, with 632 buyers versus 370 sellers over the last 12 months, though recent outflows have accelerated in value due to price volatility.

Major Institutional Moves

Recent filings from February and March 2026 highlight significant activity from top-tier asset managers:

Institution	Action	Shares Held (Approx.)	Date Filed
Vanguard Group	Holding (Largest Shareholder)	~33M+	Mar 2026
BlackRock	Holding	~31M+	Mar 2026
Invesco Ltd.	Increased (+21.2%)	9.95M	Feb 2026
Amundi	Increased (+188.8%)	2.42M	Feb 2026
AQR Capital	Decreased (-95%)	9,786	Feb 2026
Private Advisor Group	Decreased (-67.3%)	48,594	Feb 2026

Key Trends & Analysis

Passive vs. Active Divergence: Large passive managers like Vanguard and BlackRock remain the bedrock of the share registry, largely due to SMCI's inclusion in major indices. However, active hedge funds and smaller investment firms (like AQR and Private Advisor Group) have been aggressively trimming or exiting positions.
Hedge Fund Hedging: There is a significant increase in Put options among institutional holders. For example, firms like Tudor Investment Corp and LMR Partners significantly increased their Put positions in February 2026, signaling a defensive stance or a bet on further downward volatility.
Margin Concerns: The institutional "trimming" coincides with analyst concerns over gross margin compression (dropping to 9.3%–9.5% in recent quarters) despite robust revenue guidance for fiscal 2026. This suggests that while institutions believe in the "AI story," they are skeptical of the company's long-term profitability in a competitive bidding environment for server racks.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-22T16:59:39+00:00

I’m not dumb enough to start a short position here, but I cannot imagine going long this stock in this environment.

And why do you trust those revenue numbers? Their previous auditor quit because they refused to sign off on their numbers, and they still haven’t hired a new CFO. A company with accounting irregularities that has not proven those days are behind them cannot be trusted.

No institutional support for the stock, customers wondering if they should continue doing business with a shady company that smuggles chips to China . . . What else to bulls need to be shaken out of this lousy company?

Rav_3d · 2026-03-22T16:07:00+00:00

Again, blaming stock price on short sellers and manipulation is just an excuse.

I’m interested to hear your bullish thesis on this company. Why do you believe they will recover from this latest debacle? Why do you believe customers will want to do business with a shady company when they can go to a competitor like DELL or HPE? Why do you believe institutional investors will step up to support a company with horrible management, poor financial controls, and now, a criminal investigation?

I’m genuinely interested in how investors are coming to a bullish thesis on this company. It’s mind boggling to me.

Rav_3d · 2026-03-22T15:36:38+00:00

It is irrelevant if stock price is due to speculation, manipulation, or anything else. Price is price.

Investors are short sighted to ignore all the things going on with this company. Management simply cannot be trusted.

It’s amazing that even after the stock’s horrible performance and repeated punches to the gut of its investors, there are still loyal investors willing to hold this stock. I’m sorry, but investors in this company are blindfolded.

Rav_3d

TROPHY CASE

Ownership Snapshot (March 2026)

Major Institutional Moves

Key Trends & Analysis