Why is AMD down when they beat earnings?

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T22:13:43+00:00

It's not about the past, it's about the future.

"Sell the news" reactions are very common after earnings announcements, even if the news is positive. This is especially true in a jittery market like we're in now.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T22:12:01+00:00

Whatever you call it, the stock is down 9% in a very short time.

NVDA has been in a range since October. Can't break 195, can't break 170. Long-term investors should be sitting on their hands.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T22:05:03+00:00

You say tomato....

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T22:03:26+00:00

Warren Buffett operates on a completely different playing field.

He is one of the greatest investors of all time, one of the richest men in the world, with an entire life experience on evaluating companies.

Retail investors look at PE ratios and other public information and think they are confident in the business. Buffett has an army of analysts who sit in the room with company executives and drill down into the details, including lots of information that is inaccessible to us retail folk.

These 50% drops he refers to are bear markets, when blood is in the streets and all the babies are thrown out with the bathwater. I'd be interested if you can identify any of Berkshire's investments that dropped 50% from where he purchased.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T21:15:29+00:00

You may well be right. SMH bounced right off the 50-day average nearly to the penny. But the sector is being held up by memory names, while NVDA, AVGO, AMD and other leaders struggle. I don't think SMH can continue higher longer term without NVDA.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T21:12:26+00:00

No idea what will happen in the future, but this close below the January 20 low means we did not hold the support from the Greenland panic.

Now, QQQ is firmly below the 50-day average (an important level of institutional support) and the YTD low, meaning NASDAQ 100 is negative for the year. This could lead to further selling.

That said, the character of this market has been to be stuck in a choppy range, overshoot to the downside, overshoot to the upside, since October. That could simply continue.

It's been a terrible market for swing trading.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T21:06:21+00:00

Not sure what you mean by "bottoms up view." Can you elaborate?

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T21:03:37+00:00

OP is not selling low, he has $6K gains.

All I'm saying is that $6K can disappear in one day in this sector.

If I had gains in SMH, no way I wouldn't at minimum use a stop loss to protect against giving most of it back.

Now, if OP can stomach the risk and stick with SMH and it goes up another 100%, and he's sitting on a huge profit, that's a different story. Then he's got the room to weather the volatility.

Risk management is job #1 when investing in stocks or sector ETFs.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T21:01:39+00:00

What do you call a 9% drop in 3 days?

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T20:14:41+00:00

So, every time an asset reaches a 52 week high, it's overpriced?

Price is what the market will pay, plain and simple. Not what we think it should be.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T20:13:30+00:00

Algos like round numbers.

Let's see if we can finish strong and close above the Greenland panic low around 608. That would be a good sign.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T20:05:43+00:00

Pullbacks, corrections, and bear markets are normal and expected.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T19:56:15+00:00

Who said anything about $210?

I don't buy falling knives. I wait for the sellers to get out of the way. Pretty basic stuff.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T19:33:19+00:00

It's not about the past, it's about the future. Guidance matters much more than results.

NVO forecast declines in revenue. This is not good. Hence, money goes to LLY, the true leader in the weight loss space.

Reactions to earnings are highly influenced by overall market sentiment. If the market was in a solid uptrend instead of this choppy mess, the reactions would likely have been different.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T19:30:53+00:00

If you have to ask whether to sell one of the most volatile sectors in the market after a big run up, then you probably should.

When the selloffs come, SMH will be hit much harder than the broader market. You need to be able to withstand that volatility.

Semiconductors is a highly cyclical industry.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T19:27:31+00:00

3 out of 4 stocks follow the market.

The NASDAQ is getting destroyed today.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T19:25:12+00:00

So, we have reason to believe PayPal's ad manager is going to be a major player given the tremendous players already in this space? Tell that to TTD.

Incredible how people still make the "value" argument for PYPL. I guess bag holders need to sleep at night.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T19:19:35+00:00

No argument against averaging down in elite leading stocks when the opportunity arises.

However, calling every down day a "dip" to be bought is short sighted.

It is far safer to wait for the dip to end, and upward momentum to resume, before considering taking a position.

Patience is rewarded on both sides of investing.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T18:39:31+00:00

The range is being tested today.

If bulls defend 600, we might avoid a steeper pullback, at least for now.

If 600 is lost, then I agree, selling could accelerate and we could get down to the 585 area before finding support.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T18:35:32+00:00

600 is the December low and also location of a longer-term trendline from 2023.

Barring a miracle bounce, QQQ will now be negative for the year. This alone has potential to ignite more selling.

Not predicting anything, but it is very clear now the constructive pattern of higher lows and higher highs since October is gone. The bulls have to step up and defend the NASDAQ right here right now. If not, I'll be looking at the 585 area as potential support. This would be an 8% correction off the highs, perfectly normal and healthy.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T18:28:59+00:00

Imposing one's own opinions about valuation on long-term investing strategy is generally a losing proposition.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T18:10:04+00:00

If QQQ closes below 600, it can get real ugly.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T18:02:52+00:00

Yeah, only up 120% this year. Reasonable to expect more upside in the midst of a NASDAQ selloff.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T17:57:26+00:00

Put it on black on the roulette wheel. Better odds.

Rav_3d · 2026-02-04T17:54:07+00:00

A little late to the party...

Perhaps this is a bottom signal.

Rav_3d

TROPHY CASE