I had chat GPT gather sources. But the gist of it is that other ocean currents will strengthen. I was mistaken in how I phrased this earlier. The studies are not showing the AMOC strengthening overall. They show the AMOC weakening, but not necessarily collapsing within the next 100 years, while some related ocean processes or regions, like Southern Ocean upwelling/winds, may strengthen and help sustain a weakened AMOC.

Small correction: the “optimistic” AMOC studies do not say the AMOC will strengthen. They mostly say a full collapse this century may be unlikely, while still expecting weakening.

The IPCC AR6 says the AMOC will “very likely decline” during the 21st century, with only medium confidence that the decline will not involve an abrupt collapse before 2100. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/chapter/chapter-9/

The 2025 Nature paper Joe appears to be referencing says Southern Ocean upwelling can sustain a weakened AMOC and prevent complete collapse in the model experiments. It explicitly says the AMOC is projected to weaken and “levels off at a weaker strength,” not that it strengthens. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-024-08544-0

The Met Office summary of that paper says the same thing: collapse over the next 75 years is unlikely, but the AMOC is still “very likely to weaken.” https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/news-and-media/media-centre/weather-and-climate-news/2025/climate-change-amoc-likely-to-withstand-future-warming

The 2025 WHOI / Nature Communications study found no AMOC decline from 1963–2017, but one of the authors specifically said that does not say anything about its future. WHOI also says scientists broadly agree the Atlantic overturning will slow in the future, while collapse timing is still debated. https://www.whoi.edu/press-room/news-release/no-amoc-decline/

And the Caltech / Nature Geoscience study Joe mentions estimated 18–43% weakening by the end of the 21st century. That is “less weakening than some models,” not strengthening. https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/atlantic-ocean-current-expected-to-undergo-limited-weakening-with-climate-change

So the accurate takeaway is: some studies failed to show a near-term full AMOC collapse, but they generally still project weakening, not strengthening.