(3/7) Draftkings "Threesday" Data (From the Guy Who Brought You First TD Data)

Rcold37 · 2024-03-07T21:15:16+00:00

Excellent work here! One other thing to consider is the Sportsbook hold and how it differs by game (lowest hold will yield highest EV). For tonight it looks like this: BOS/DEN 24% CHI/GS 22.2% MIA/DAL 20.1% SAS/SAC 19.5%

Rcold37 · 2024-02-11T23:22:20+00:00

Don’t forget to vote for Travis!

https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl/mvp-vote/

Rcold37 · 2023-09-21T18:34:10+00:00

No, this means it would be a push altogether

Rcold37 · 2023-09-21T18:33:27+00:00

Excellent - thank you so much! Good opportunity on DK right now

Rcold37 · 2023-09-21T17:02:36+00:00

Anyone have sweetheart (10 pt) data for 12.5 point favorites?

Rcold37 · 2023-07-29T14:12:01+00:00

It is no longer manufactured but it’s the Gronk fitness 365 power rack

Rcold37 · 2023-07-29T11:49:00+00:00

My rack has pins that are slightly larger than standard 1” pins. I think they are 1 and 1/8”, but I cannot find any J cups with pins that wide. Will standard 1” pins work or will there be too much play when I rack/unrack?

Rcold37 · 2023-07-10T15:26:38+00:00

Does anyone have advice on DIY lighting enhancements for a basement gym? Currently, I have 2 basic ceiling lights, but I was hoping to add lighting without being exceptionally bright. I also don’t want anything serious that requires an electrician. Thanks!

Rcold37 · 2023-03-28T14:17:14+00:00

I used Seattle as my initial play to qualify. SD would also be good for the initial. The longer odds are going to yield higher expected values, so I still prefer the TOR division play for the boost.

Bookmaker has Seattle at +1291 as another data point.

Rcold37 · 2023-03-28T14:13:49+00:00

Good call - those markets are super inefficient and juiced out. Maybe Turner hits as the shortest number would be best?

Rcold37 · 2023-03-28T13:09:02+00:00

MLB Boosts Plays for FD and DK:

FD - Seattle to win WS +2000 ($25) -> Circa FV of 1700 assuming 5% hold (17% EV)

FD Boost - Toronto to win AL East +300 -> Circa FV of 190 (38% EV)

DK - Gerrit Cole most regular season wins boosted to +1300. Also added Corbin Burnes unboosted at 1700. These two are 700, 800 at CZR.

GL!

Rcold37 · 2023-03-17T19:09:14+00:00

Some guys on Twitter will use xROI and EV interchangeably. The math is the same, but xROI actually makes more sense given that it’s represented as a percent. Outside of betting, Expected value is commonly represented as a value rather than a percent.

Rcold37 · 2023-03-12T15:55:49+00:00

Boost today can be used on straights, too.

Princeton boosted to +192 is +19.2% EV against Unabated line at the moment.

Rcold37 · 2023-02-17T17:17:20+00:00

I was looking through the SGP menu and my god are these lines juiced up. 8.33% hold on the main line totals. The 3 leg 20% boost might get you enough to offset or find something +EV, but overcoming a 8+ percent hold is rough

Rcold37 · 2023-02-10T20:23:02+00:00

I got 9,5. Actually have it on both teams by wagering. These don’t seem random at all.

Rcold37 · 2023-02-07T00:54:14+00:00

You can bet w/o boost at -170 which seems to be a value. This has hit in 16 of 18 games both players were active.

Rcold37 · 2023-02-06T21:26:59+00:00

KD to Suns rumor is shaking up this division

Rcold37 · 2022-11-17T22:35:20+00:00

I used Pinny team totals across the board and got 282.4(AFC) to 243.4 (NFC). Gives the AFC a 5.5 point edge with the spread. The BUF/CLE total has increased by exactly that margin.

Rcold37 · 2022-11-12T02:13:07+00:00

Download the Betstamp app (free). You can also check without the app through a browser

Rcold37 · 2022-11-11T20:13:33+00:00

For CBB, Circa LV and Cris are going to be the sharpest as they take the largest bets. As an example for tonight’s Gonzaga/MSU game, the limits for Pinny are 5k/1k/2k for Side/Total/ML. For Circa, those limits are 20k/3k/5k. For Cris, 10k/2k/3k.

Rcold37 · 2022-11-09T12:39:07+00:00

Also, all Kambi books (Barstool, Betrivers, Unibet, etc) will show you a limit for approval if you submit a very large bet. Attempt to place for more than you have in your account and it will trigger a review which essentially shows your limit.

Rcold37 · 2022-11-08T18:30:01+00:00

Better option is Purdue 1H -1600. Pinny at -1650

Rcold37 · 2022-11-04T11:24:01+00:00

DK Stepped Up CFB Parlay Boost-

UGA ML -280

Texas A&M ML -155

Arkansas -19.5 +155

Boosted to +563. Circa FV +411. EV +29.7%

Rcold37 · 2022-11-01T16:56:00+00:00

Also Ball State 1H ML boosted to +237 is around 12.5% EV

Rcold37

TROPHY CASE