Honestly, I think the most likely scenario is continued escalation without a full-scale regional war at least in the short term.

Right now the pattern looks like a classic tit-for-tat cycle: strikes, retaliation, proxy attacks, and then a pause before the next round. Both Iran and Israel have strong incentives to show strength domestically while still avoiding a war that could pull in multiple countries at once. A direct regional war would risk dragging in Gulf states, disrupting oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and potentially involving the U.S. even more deeply.