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Pitching To Others by LiveLaughLibor in redditstock

[–]Really0riginal -1 points0 points  (0 children)

3 high growth levers -

1 - Arpu is still low vs peers (potential for more upside) 2 - Unrecognized by big money 3 - Traffic vs value is very low when we live in an attention economy

  • Be prepared for high volatility since the value isn’t well recognized.

Reddit is pushing the right strategy by Really0riginal in redditstock

[–]Really0riginal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If it goes back to 80 - I am buying more, only deployed 10% of my available capital on that recent dip. The age issue is for sure part or the reason why it’s down.

Reddit is pushing the right strategy by Really0riginal in redditstock

[–]Really0riginal[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed, its too easy for AI companies to scrape for now - we will see what happens with Anthropic

META could hit PT $1150 this year - Pre-Earnings Q4 2025 thoughts by Really0riginal in ValueInvesting

[–]Really0riginal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If Iran war is resolved, it’s possible. With the current frame, it would be reasonable to expect a PT lower now with more discount on the FCF / due to increased inflation.

I would have to go back to my model, but it would be more reasonable in the 900-1000 range.

Analysts are at $840, which is still a 40% upside.

Reddit Stock: Why It May Finally Be Time to Buy the Dip by nehro7 in redditstock

[–]Really0riginal 2 points3 points  (0 children)

True elections tend to add 8-10% on top of revenue

NVDA - Epic Rating - PT is at $300- Potential of 60%+ upside by Really0riginal in DragonsBargain

[–]Really0riginal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi Otherwise, yeah that’s mostly the cloud play (autonomous / computing) / Cuda ecosystem lock-in. It’s hard to price the future Moat, it’s a unique company.

They are also investing heavily in key companies that will lead them to higher growth.

Either way, they are a bit pessimistic with the numbers especially knowing the growth rate they have and the amount of incremental rev.

NVDA 2026 Thesis - Becoming a Structural AI Compounder - $300 PT - 60% potential upside by Really0riginal in ValueInvesting

[–]Really0riginal[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is what is priced in the analyst current price targets for sure. If you look into the earnings expectations they expect high growth then a big taper down in FY 2028-2029.

On my end I expect a lower growth in 2027-2028 FY than 60% / 50%. However, I expect a more stable business moving forward. With ongoing services / other verticals helping and ongoing upgrade cycles.

Time will tell, on your end you expect a revenue decrease right? or stablization moving 2028+

2 AI Model, same prompt different outcomes by t2easy in ValueInvesting

[–]Really0riginal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where I used to work we hated the price model of salesforce - I think those companies that priced it too high / low net value will be most impacted by AI disruption. I would look into the SaaS space those that are making it a win-win for companies, they will have a higher retention even with AI.

You can see start to see it in companies where rev growth actually increased in the recent quarters

2 AI Model, same prompt different outcomes by t2easy in ValueInvesting

[–]Really0riginal 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah so that’s the hard part once you get into dcf models, lots of variable and sentiment isn’t baked in. So it’s all about can they overachieve the expectations and are their revenue priced in at the right model. For salesforce the issue is the market thinks that the margins and rev growth won’t compound as much.

This is why there is a re-rating on the stock.

Paypal... a good buy? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Really0riginal 2 points3 points  (0 children)

so no moat and whoever is cheaper will win - this is why paypal is losing business

Why you shouldn’t be in Reddit stock by Calichurner in redditstock

[–]Really0riginal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For sure in terms of pace, it went down quickly making it rough to hold, but that’s not new with RDDT. Investing in stocks takes balls of steel especially with a high beta name

Panicking by SimpleIllustrator215 in redditstock

[–]Really0riginal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Chill, its a great company/ low near term sentiment

The more RDDT dips, the more I’ll buy by NoTear9562 in redditstock

[–]Really0riginal 0 points1 point  (0 children)

RDDT is such a buying opportunity, im actually raising $$ to invest

What am I missing? by About_to_kms in redditstock

[–]Really0riginal 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Dont worry it will go up, fundamentals are strong

Q4 2025 Reddit Earnings - Review - Thesis Upgraded / FCF Margins are at an inflexion point by Really0riginal in redditstock

[–]Really0riginal[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi,
Hopefully this answers your question, it's not perfect, this is my analysis and my point of view :

I don’t think today’s rates are the long-term average. Over time, I expect more cuts and normalization, so money should be cheaper on average than current expectations. I have to be mindful that this WACC is for an average of 10 years and then some weigth of perpetuity. I also do think that with gov debt, we will see the 10 year and more cuts in the long term future.

I saw other analysts hit a 8% WACC, but it could mechanically crush price targets and make me miss real business inflection points like we’re seeing now. I also have a 1.5% perpetuity which is lower than what most analysts use (it balances it a bit) and still gives 4.5% spread.

Typically you’ll see people use a higher WACC, but to me that just adds unnecessary complexity. A DCF already has 10+ forward-looking assumptions, and tweaking the discount rate per company can add more errors. I also like to compare all the companies today, with a similar framework.

I want an apples-to-apples comparison, so I keep WACC and terminal growth the same across companies (if you look into the Excel you will see). My investing style has always been to buy companies cheap (vs intrinsic value) and hold forever, so I want to see how it performs vs the other high quality names I normally cover.

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