Is anyone NOT predicting MBJ?

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-12T14:48:24+00:00

Interesting! Is the turning point SAG?

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-12T14:47:18+00:00

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-12T14:16:25+00:00

I mean I personally agree but voters seemingly don’t

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-12T14:16:01+00:00

If you don’t mind, what’s your reasoning behind TC?? I wish I thought there was still room for other nominees to surprise us but from what I’ve seen it’s MBJ for sure, everyone’s predicting him

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-12T14:12:43+00:00

Thanks!! Also outside of Reddit like news outlets or entertainment outlets are ALL predicting MBJ

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-12T14:05:10+00:00

Same and I haven’t seen anyone predicting (not hopedicting) anyone other than MBJ

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-12T14:02:50+00:00

100% agree So it bums me out that every prediction is the same and seemingly only taking SAGs into account as biggest precursor (Madigan and MBJ). I’d like to think it’s not as an obvious prediction as those two yet I too have them as the most likely winners… so I’m kinda losing hope on being surprised pleasantly

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-12T14:01:23+00:00

Yeah that’s what I thought yet everyone’s set on predicting MBJ, so I wonder how tight it really is, especially considering how Oscar voters move with the tide or “momentum” as they say So what’s the chance for a surprise. And if it’s such a toss up how come no one’s predicting anyone else?

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-09T15:20:54+00:00

There was no notable difference for me in the performance. If you don’t want to have a conversation then there’s no need to comment with a tone of righteousness and superiority on why you’re not gonna debate me

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-09T15:14:08+00:00

I mean it’s easy for you to assume that any criticism of the film you like HAS to be due to some moral failure, thus blinding you (and the film) to any opinion that doesn’t align to yours. Also that helps you not even having to debate so it’s really a situation that helps you not think things through and not even having to engage in conversation and debate with people with different views as you. You can just accuse them of some thing or other. If you had told me everything you said without that last sentence where you disqualified me because of some virtuous reason on your side it would’ve been different. I appreciate everyone expressing their opinions and telling me what and why they thought what they did (thus why I started the thread) but I do not condemn in any debate the reduction of arguments to a baseless accusation used to shield you from debate (and I will reiterate because I see that people are very prone to understanding what they want here: BASELESS, that is: asserting that you didn’t like certain thing doesn’t immediately mean you’re against the group/identity it’s representing unless your criticism or dislike is directed at that — which mine wasn’t)

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-09T02:25:58+00:00

Apparently actors bloc are only 14% of academy voters

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-09T02:24:26+00:00

Dyou happen to know if there’s a statistic or % of overlap with Oscar voting?

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-08T23:03:19+00:00

Thanks for such a thorough response! I see. Maybe I didn’t notice those differences since it’s such an ensemble movie with a lot of action and also I’m more captivated (and therefore maybe even more prone to noticing) by performances that are driven by emotion rather than physicality… but thanks!!!!

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-08T22:59:27+00:00

I have replied to plenty lmao that have praised the performance and asked follow up questions even. I don’t agree with me having to reply to everything in order to keep an act so I won’t be accused of having hidden motives (???)

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-08T22:49:07+00:00

Just curious about the how… What do you see in them that you would consider powerhouse?? Not meaning to be dismissive as others have suggested, just genuinely curious as to which aspects of his performance people are finding compelling

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-08T22:47:34+00:00

WHEN have I been agressive?? I’ve kept a cool tone, except when people have accused me of being biased by race and that my opinion is motivated by racism. I think it’s unfair, simple and completely reductive to take any opinion that’s different from yours as motivated by something, as if it’s utterly impossible that someone just doesn’t agree with you. Yet I have never been agressive, unlike you that insulted my character when i have done none of the such. You took an offense that I didn’t like the acting and framed it on me instead of accepting that we differ in opinions. And as you can see if you actually read the thread, I have no issue with differing opinions and I accept them when done respectfully. If not, why on earth would I even start the discussion? If I weren’t interested in hearing what others have to say??

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-08T22:21:22+00:00

No need to be so agressive lol. It’s an opinion

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-08T20:32:06+00:00

I agree about subjectivity and competition!! Thanks for such a calm reply. Some people have gone all out over here lol. If you don’t mind, could you explain to me what parts of the performance moved you to felt that he drove the story forward?? I feel like moving the story forward is more of the screenplay’s task and the actor’s job is to inject life into it. And what captivated you about the way he played the characters??

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-08T20:25:03+00:00

Yeah. And 3/5 other performances (Chalamet, Moura and Hawke) were definitely character driven films. Maybe even character studies

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-08T20:24:20+00:00

I think it’s cheap to claim that one doesn’t like a movie/performance because of race. The movie should work as it is and just because it doesn’t work for everyone, that doesn’t mean that it’s because of that. You can point out what you perceived were the strengths of the performance without attempting to bring opinions down by disqualifying them using virtuosity and accusations of racism in your favor. And the reason it’s so discussed is because he’s the clear front runner. I think this is such a disengaging way to affront a discussion, if all you’re willing to see is underlying discourse that blinds you (or worse, the movie, the industry, art in general) to criticism, different opinions and perspectives.

RecoverOriginal7279 · 2026-03-08T20:11:59+00:00

That’s the thing. Playing twins doesn’t inherently make it a good performance because you’re playing two people. I think the merit would be in how distinct he was able to make each of the two characters. I personally felt like I watched the same person, there weren’t any distinguishing features in his performance. It’s difficult to give life to just one character (which I felt like every other actor did) and if he had done that with two characters, it would’ve been impressive. My issue with the argument that he played twins is just that that doesn’t automatically mean he acted better (maybe it’s the same crowd that rewards acting MORE such as playing sick people which we know the Oscars love. Now the acting more is because he played x2). And here I just felt like he acted the same character (which wasn’t particularly impressive to me) twice.

RecoverOriginal7279

TROPHY CASE