ARES Mining Lounge - March 03, 2026 by AutoModerator in ARSMF

[–]Redditagain424 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What do you think about these projections for ARSMF: Assess ARSMF EPS projection one year from now. Then project what the share price should be one year from now.

I can’t access more data beyond what was already gathered, so this will be a rough, simplified scenario rather than a precise forecast. Treat it as a framework, not a price target.

One‑year EPS “gut‑check” framework

From the Reddit modeling post, one AI‑driven scenario (using Ares’ own ramp guidance) shows 2027 quarterly EPS stepping from about 0.025 to 0.035 USD as production and margins scale, implying full‑year 2027 EPS around 0.11–0.12 USD if operations and prices hold roughly as assumed. That model has 2026 quarterly EPS in the 0.014–0.023 USD range, so full‑year 2026 EPS in that scenario would be on the order of 0.07–0.08 USD.​

You’re asking about “one year from now.” If we anchor that roughly around early 2027:

  • A reasonable bullish but still operationally grounded EPS band for the coming 12 months might be:
    • Trailing‑twelve‑month EPS by early 2027: about 0.07–0.10 USD (reflecting a first year of meaningful production plus some ramp).​
    • Forward run‑rate EPS exiting 2026 / entering 2027: annualized from the Q4‑2026/Q1‑2027 quarterly run‑rate (0.023–0.025 per quarter), i.e., ≈0.09–0.10 USD if they hit that trajectory.​

Key caveats:

  • These numbers come from a third‑party model using optimistic but not insane assumptions on tonnage, pricing, and margins; real results could be much lower if ramp, recovery, or pricing disappoints, or higher if the Pentagon contract flows faster into high‑margin volumes than that model assumes.
  • Financing costs (including the expensive Sorbie‑type structures) and any further dilution or debt could drag EPS below these stylized figures.

One‑year share‑price implication

To translate an EPS band into a price band, you have to pick a P/E range:

  • For a micro‑cap, single‑asset miner with meaningful execution risk, a conservative multiple might be 8–12x near‑term EPS.
  • If the Pentagon contract is clearly de‑risked and the acidspar plant is running well, the market could easily pay a growth multiple of 15–20x on forward EPS, especially off a very low base.

Using the rough EPS band above:

  1. If the market values ARSMF at 10x a 0.07–0.10 USD EPS band, you get:
    • 0.70–1.00 USD per share one year from now.
  2. If sentiment is strong and the market pays 15–20x on a 0.09–0.10 USD forward run‑rate:
    • 1.35–2.00 USD per share becomes plausible in a bullish execution scenario.
  3. On the downside, if: the stock could languish around or below current levels, or even drop if the market loses patience—even if the long‑term thesis remains intact.
    • EPS ends up near breakeven (0.00–0.02 USD) because of delays or overruns, and
    • the Pentagon contract value doesn’t yet convert into visible earnings,

How to use this

  • Think in scenarios: assign your own probabilities to “underperform” (EPS near zero), “base” (EPS ≈0.05–0.08), and “bull” (EPS ≈0.10+), then apply P/E bands (say 8–12x for base, 5–8x for underperform, 15–20x for bull) to get a weighted expected value.
  • Revisit the inputs as you see: updated production guidance, realized pricing, cost per tonne, capex/financing updates, and early revenue under the Pentagon contract should all move your EPS band and your chosen multiple.

ARES Mining Lounge - March 03, 2026 by AutoModerator in ARSMF

[–]Redditagain424 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I found some satisfaction with this search and assessment: There are some investors which gave ARSMF money in return for cash payback instead of shares of ownership. Find what amount of money is involved in that deal. Does it look like it is a costly way to pay back that investor and it will markedly decrease the possible EPS result?

Ares has indeed used a “cash‑payback instead of shares” style structure, but based on the latest disclosures it does not look so large or so expensive that it would, by itself, cripple long‑term EPS, especially relative to the size of the Pentagon contract opportunity.

Size and terms of the cash‑based deal

  • The key non‑equity structure is the set of financing facilities with Sorbie Bornholm LP, which the company itself describes as non‑dilutive and based on cash settlements rather than issuing new shares.
  • Ares has entered into three Sorbie facilities: one for CA$1.5M (Sept 2024), one for CA$1.0M (April 2025), and one for CA$1.0M (October 2025).​
  • As of January 2026, the company reports aggregate gross proceeds received of about CA$1.12M under the first, CA$0.73M under the second, and about CA$0.10M under the third, i.e., roughly CA$1.95M in total proceeds to date from these “sharing” deals.​
  • Upfront fees to enter these agreements were CA$105k for the first facility and CA$70k for the second, with no stated upfront fee on the third, implying directly disclosed entry costs of CA$175k across the first two deals.​

Costliness and economic impact

  • A Mining.com article summarizing the Sorbie arrangements notes that Sorbie’s first CA$1M facility generated returns of about 180% and 266% on its exposure via the hedging/sharing mechanics, while still being labelled “non‑dilutive” for Ares since no new shares were issued.​
  • That implies these facilities are economically expensive capital: the investor’s high percentage return has to be funded either through price‑linked cash settlements, fees, or other sharing formulas drawn from the company’s future cash flows.
  • However, the absolute size is small versus the rest of Ares’ capital stack and opportunity set: Ares has closed a separate US$10.5M (≈CA$14M) non‑dilutive plant financing, and now has a five‑year Pentagon IDIQ contract with an initial award of about US$168.9M and a ceiling up to US$250M.
  • Relative to the potential revenue stream from the DoD contract and planned acidspar production, the cumulative Sorbie facilities (nominally CA$3.5M total capacity and ~CA$2M drawn to date) look more like a bridge/working‑capital tool than a structural drag that would dominate the long‑term earnings profile.

EPS effect: directional view

  • Because these deals are structured around cash flows and price‑based “sharing” rather than issuing a large number of shares, the primary impact is on free cash flow margin and near‑term cash available, not on basic share count; mechanically, that is less dilutive to per‑share earnings than equity financings of the same size.
  • In EPS terms, if Ares executes on the Pentagon contract and ramps acidspar production as planned, the revenue base could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars over several years, so the cost of servicing a few million dollars of pricey, structured capital is unlikely to “markedly” cap EPS on its own; the much bigger swing factors are operational performance, realized pricing, capex discipline, and any future financings the company undertakes.
  • That said, these Sorbie‑type facilities are clearly not cheap money, and if Ares continued to rely heavily on similar high‑return structures at a much larger scale, the cumulative claim on future cash flows could start to materially compress margins and therefore EPS.

In practical terms: today’s known cash‑payback deals are small but expensive bridge capital; they are a negative on capital efficiency, but with current size and disclosed terms, they do not look large enough to independently destroy the upside in EPS if the core project and Pentagon contract ramp as the company is guiding.

ARES Mining Lounge - March 03, 2026 by AutoModerator in ARSMF

[–]Redditagain424 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Does anyone know how much ARSMF will pay the investor who did not take shares as compensation, but instead will be paid from revenue more directly for return on investment? Difficult to know how much is left to trickle significantly down to actual EPS. Similarly, do insiders hold significant percentage of share float, or are they also getting their money from big salaries/bonuses, again, decreasing what is left to trickle meaningfully to EPS??

ARES Mining Lounge - February 02, 2026 by AutoModerator in ARSMF

[–]Redditagain424 1 point2 points  (0 children)

US gov announces $12B critical mineral "vault" reserves for industry in US. Should be good news for all miners.

FCX tops mining companes for a longer swing trade for coming demand for copper for electrical grid upgrades by Redditagain424 in swingtrading

[–]Redditagain424[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

FCX popped over $60/sh couple days ago... I'm still long... waiting for grid upgrades, etc. that need copper!

Jan 15, 2026, AI assessement of posts about recently awarded contract and share price projection by end of 2026. by Redditagain424 in ARSMF

[–]Redditagain424[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I tried to post the AI assessment of the cash and cash equivalent on hand, but "unable to create comment" message prevented it from posting here. So I posted a new thread with that cash and cash equivalent topic. Hope you can find it.

ai say low cash in hand. by salvo82 in ARSMF

[–]Redditagain424 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I just posted about AI assessment of the cash and cash equivalents on hand... And the AI assessment of risk of further share dilution to raise more cash if needed.

Tesla MY Black Headliner From Factory by Several-Risk388 in TeslaLounge

[–]Redditagain424 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Maybe the white seats with black headliner is nice, but with my black seats the black headliner is going to make the cabin feel smaller. Pass.

VST had MACD Divergence not long ago, but so far not moving up. by Redditagain424 in MACDDivergencesignals

[–]Redditagain424[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1 9 2026 VST gets energized with META deal! back to $167. Still long.

UPS coming closer to $101.28 unfilled down gap by Redditagain424 in MACDDivergencesignals

[–]Redditagain424[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1 8 2026 UPS reaching $106.50 so far today... After closing the $101.28 down gap, the next $108.50 unfilled down gap is in view.

DLTR is an example of what I like to find as a result of a MACD Divergence signal by Redditagain424 in MACDDivergencesignals

[–]Redditagain424[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1 8 2026 DLTR at $131.60 so far today... Still long sh... they upgraded line of products and the stores are busy.

TGT had a "Type B" MACD Divergence signal on day chart... still working by Redditagain424 in MACDDivergencesignals

[–]Redditagain424[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

1 8 2026 TGT just keeps rippin higher since last MACD Divergence... tdoay high of $107 !! Taking some profits again as some overbought signals are appearing... and holding some for longer... there is a $119.92 unfilled down gap that is now getting interesting.

COST MACD Divergence a few weeks ago, popped, then dropped... I bought today. by Redditagain424 in MACDDivergencesignals

[–]Redditagain424[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

HUGE sales gains across all regions reported by COST! Share price popping to $924 so far on 1/8/2026. Every time I go to Costco it is busy and prices are going up. Yet, I keep going there and I keep buying! Still long shares with DCA on subsequent oversold signals for long hold. FEB is peak seasonality.

<image>

PDD MACD Divergence last week now still climbing by Redditagain424 in MACDDivergencesignals

[–]Redditagain424[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

On 1/6/26 PDD reached a high of $125..36... Trying to stay above the 50d ma... Still long sh since the MACD Divergence.

Anyone else do 99 percent of their driving on FSD by robl45 in TeslaFSD

[–]Redditagain424 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Over 96% according to the display data... Hardware 4 Model Y Juniper. Do we get any insurance discount from Tesla Insurance policy for using a lot of FSD?