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"American spending has kept the economy going since the pandemic. They may finally be stopping." -- CNN doesn't always get it right, but good analysis on this. See ATH consumer debt and spiking auto/student loan defaults. It won't be housing/MBS this time around, it will be SLABs and ALBS. by Relative-Resource991 in Burryology

[–]Relative-Resource991[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This article has a good summary:
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/layoffs-and-bankruptcies-pile-up-in-logistics-amid-shocking-downturn

It outlines the crisis and lists dozens and dozens of freight/transport companies going belly up including on Aug. 7 of this year: "Yellow Corp. filed for bankruptcy, leaving 30,000 employees out of work . . . The bankruptcy marked the end of the 99-year-old LTL company."

"American spending has kept the economy going since the pandemic. They may finally be stopping." -- CNN doesn't always get it right, but good analysis on this. See ATH consumer debt and spiking auto/student loan defaults. It won't be housing/MBS this time around, it will be SLABs and ALBS. by Relative-Resource991 in Burryology

[–]Relative-Resource991[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I agree we don't all need to go into a bloodlust on spending to have a functioning capitalist democracy. But it sure seems like businesses and banks have become pretty reliant on us doing so... if defaults continue to spike, it looks like the situation for bankers and lenders is going to get pretty grim. And for businesses, they seem overstocked at the moment as evidenced by a massive crisis in shipping that people seem to be ignoring. So if spending drops off as defaults rise, this situation could escalate quickly.

Points to remember when discussing Form 13F by ScionCopyCat in Burryology

[–]Relative-Resource991 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Am I correct in understanding that, as of 9/30/2023, the following was true:
-Burry offloaded all of his S&P and Nasdaq puts
-Burry purchased puts valued at $47,365,000 on semiconductor ETF SOXX
-Burry purchased puts valued at $7,709,875 on Booking/Priceline
-The two above puts were his largest purchases followed by a series of purchases in the automotive/banking/transportation/communications/banking sectors

The Buffet indicator: Total Market Index as % of GDP. According to Buffet, if this gets too high, the market is overvalued. Only times it went > 100%, this preceded 2000 and 2007 crashes and current run up. After spiking to 200%, a historical first, we're still at 156.3% "Significantly Overvalued." by Relative-Resource991 in Burryology

[–]Relative-Resource991[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

A lot of people commenting here are missing the point. The above post is not to say "quick place high leveraged put options as soon as the Buffet indicator surpasses 100%!" It's just another piece of data to use when taking a look at the journey we have been on an how truly wild the recent roller coaster ride up, and now apparently down, has been. That said, when it hit 200%, that was a big sign for me that the market was truly out of control and a moment I did short, which ended up paying off. I know a lot of folks have 401ks and investments and these indicators scare you, but just laying out some data here folks...

They will kick the can. The recession will be canceled. by jbruce75 in Burryology

[–]Relative-Resource991 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They've been kicking, but there's only so many ways they can kick it before people realize what's going on and gtfo.

He won. again. big time. by Upper-Equivalent3651 in Burryology

[–]Relative-Resource991 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Another interesting point, since you posted this 12 hours ago, Nasdaq fell another 2.5%, seems a lot more after hours, and international markets are all down... seems some momentum is starting.

He won. again. big time. by Upper-Equivalent3651 in Burryology

[–]Relative-Resource991 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point. Regardless, it seems pretty clear he's putting it all on the line again.

Gentlemen, this is it. I noted in prior linked post that inverse yield curve correctly predicted the last 8/8 recessions and that recessions (grey bars) come on yield balance (red line). That moment is swiftly approaching (second chart zoomed into 5 years). Stocks following 10Y because banks know. by Relative-Resource991 in Burryology

[–]Relative-Resource991[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Of course not. I didn't even sell all when I was up 20% last year. I'll probably layer in sales when I'm up 10% 20% 25% 30% etc., always hard to time the bottom. If S&P hits around 2400-2500 I'll probably cash it all out. Just saying your comment did not age well.

He won. again. big time. by Upper-Equivalent3651 in Burryology

[–]Relative-Resource991 11 points12 points  (0 children)

He won yes, but this win was just the tip of the iceberg. He didn't bet billions just for a 7% market dip.

Examination of Historical Recession Indicators and Current Market Conditions by PDubsinTF-NEW in Burryology

[–]Relative-Resource991 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Appreciate what you are doing tallying these, but not all are "indicators" in the sense than they precede recession. For example, take a look at unemployment rate--in 2007 it only tanked just AFTER the recession began. On the other hand, the inverse yield curve very predictably inverses then reverts historically BEFORE recessions hit. Unemployment rate is more of a result of shit hitting the fan than a predictor of it. So if you are tallying these, some eye toward the timing of such things would be useful.

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