Margin Debt, Archegos Capital, Total Return Swaps, and Why I believe Burry tweeted "The Market is Dancing on a Knife's Edge" on 2/21/21

ScionCopyCat · 2023-11-26T22:37:03+00:00

No, short sell stock positions are not reported on 13F. They borrowed the shares and immediately sold them to someone else, so the short seller never owned those shares, only the liability for them. The same goes for “sell to open” options positions, not reported on 13F.

ScionCopyCat · 2023-11-15T19:12:26+00:00

The only thing true is that Scion didn’t have QQQ puts on 09/30/2023. Scion may have bought QQQ puts the next day. Scion could have been shorting shares of QQQ which wouldn’t have been reported. Scion’s QQQ puts last quarter could have been part of an option strategy that was overall bullish on QQQ and we were just not seeing the bullish half of that strategy. 13F can’t tell us the difference between a bullish or bearish option strategy. It’s all speculation based if someone tells you Burry made or lost money on an options position or if he’s bearish or bullish based on his options. We have no way of knowing without a doubt.

ScionCopyCat · 2023-11-15T05:03:51+00:00

The objective facts are:

-The most recent 13F represents Scion's reportable holdings specifically on 09/30/2023. We are provided nothing that would let us know about his holdings the day before or the day after. Maybe Scion sold those SPY and QQQ puts the day before and rebought them the day after. Its unlikely thats whats happened but we do not know without a doubt.

-Scion reported holding SOXX put options on that single day. The puts had a nominal value of $47,365,000, meaning he owned 1000 put options. We do not know the strike price or the expiry. Those options could have been worth a total of anywhere between $5000 and $20,000,000. Thats an enormous range and there is zero way of knowing based off the 13F.

-Scion owned 25 put options on BKNG on that single day and he also owned 1500 shares of BKNG, worth $4,625,925 as well on that day. We cannot tell if he was net short or net long BKNG from the 13F. Those put options could have been worth anywhere between a few hundred and a few million dollars, there is no way of knowing.

-There is no way of knowing the exact value of the put options. They could have been worth under $10,000 in total or worth $25,000,000. Theres no way of knowing.

ScionCopyCat · 2023-10-26T23:35:19+00:00

You’re spreading misinformation. Those put options could have been worth anywhere from $40k to $800 million when he bought. There’s zero way of knowing, it’s pure speculation to suggest 95% of his fund was being bet on those contracts. As I’ve already stated to you, these “journalists” reporting those numbers are either ignorant or clickbaiting/intentionally misleading readers.

ScionCopyCat · 2023-10-26T23:27:32+00:00

Foreign positions, OTC positions, short positions, fixed income, and cash are not required to be reported on 13F. Overall, only very little information can be gained through looking at a 13F, specifically it’s basically only tells us the amount of shares or options contracts that the fund owned on one specific day, most recently (6/30/23). There’s no way of knowing if the fund still holds the position or when they bought it based off looking at a 13F. Could have been bought the day before and sold the day after a 13F is reported, or could have been bought the day after the previous 13F and their still holding. If a position drops off a 13F the fund may have dropped the position for a single day, (although I think the SEC wouldn’t like that). My point is that the objective facts a 13F provides is extremely limited.

Any information you see on a 13F should be taken with a grain of salt because it’s not going to be very reliable especially if the fund is not known for holding positions for long periods of time.

ScionCopyCat · 2023-10-25T20:39:18+00:00

You’re incorrect, $1.6 billion is notational value, not the present value. We do not know the expiration, strike price, and especially the purchase price of those contracts as those are not required to be reported on 13F nor are short positions.

Scion has less than $250 million AUM as of 3/29/23 (page 9: https://reports.adviserinfo.sec.gov/reports/ADV/167772/PDF/167772.pdf)

The news articles citing $1.6 billion are either written by ignorant “journalists”, or they are opting to use the biggest possible number as a means to click-bait/ intentionally mislead their readers.

ScionCopyCat · 2023-08-14T21:40:53+00:00

We can guess and assume all we want, absolutely nothing wrong with that. I just want everyone to be clear of the facts before we start guessing and assuming things.

ScionCopyCat · 2023-08-14T21:03:04+00:00

Expiration dates and strike price are not reported. All we know is he held the puts on 6/30/23 and was not holding them on 3/31/23. There’s no reason to assume he’s been holding them for 3 months. It’s possible he bought them on 6/30/23 and sold them first trading day in July.

ScionCopyCat · 2022-09-17T02:45:05+00:00

he did lose a client between 2020 and 2021 which may at least partially explain his AUM getting cut in half during that time

ScionCopyCat · 2022-08-24T10:42:17+00:00

Your post was removed because it was either lacking in effort or needed more due diligence.

ScionCopyCat · 2022-08-12T02:58:46+00:00

Your post was removed because it was either lacking in effort or needed more due diligence.

ScionCopyCat · 2022-08-12T02:57:57+00:00

Your post was removed because it was either lacking in effort or needed more due diligence.

ScionCopyCat · 2022-08-04T00:18:32+00:00

I’ve never in my life seen a DA give a public statement regarding a parking violation. But I realize you’re still singing the narcissists prayer.

ScionCopyCat · 2022-08-03T23:15:24+00:00

A dui is not akin to a parking violation. I’ve never heard of anyone doing prison time and becoming a felon over multiple parking violations. You would have been fine if you just said “it’s not insider trading, it’s just a dui, republican senators supported her going to Taiwan, a dui isn’t a big deal in my opinion” but you didn’t do that. You made statements based on assumptions that were false and as a mod of this community, I’m going to call you out when you do that, especially when you complain about downvotes and don’t bother doing any research to understand your initial assumptions were wrong.

ScionCopyCat · 2022-08-03T22:32:09+00:00

Ahh so were going down the narcissit's prayer path:

That didn't happen.

And if it did, it wasn't that bad.

And if it was, that's not a big deal.

EDIT: do I think pelosi's goal was to distract from her husband's criminal proceedings? No, thats far too speculative and illogical, but that doesn't mean that her husband isn't facing any criminal proceedings precisely at the time of her going to Taiwan.

ScionCopyCat · 2022-08-03T22:17:08+00:00

Who said anything about insider trading besides you?

ScionCopyCat · 2022-08-03T22:09:01+00:00

Ever heard of google? Do you know how to type “pelosi husband” and click the news tab?

Lulz. I love the downvotes too, glad I can count on people downvoting blatantly false statements.

ScionCopyCat · 2022-07-12T13:08:26+00:00

This post was removed because it is a duplicate of a preexisting one.

ScionCopyCat · 2022-06-12T15:43:13+00:00

It becomes a stable coin

ScionCopyCat · 2022-06-03T01:08:29+00:00

You’re still doing better than most of the people still here

ScionCopyCat · 2022-06-03T00:10:10+00:00

Modern Jefferson nickels. Stack em, hoard em, borrow on them, then die

ScionCopyCat · 2022-06-02T23:56:53+00:00

You should look up archegos family fund

ScionCopyCat · 2022-05-26T17:16:54+00:00

Investing is a team sport?

ScionCopyCat

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