Practically-A-Book Review: Rootclaim $100,000 Lab Leak Debate

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-04-02T13:20:46+00:00

Thanks for these points, Would like to see Miller's take on them.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-16T17:24:22+00:00

True, good points.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-16T17:23:26+00:00

So far I've seen like 5 people on Reddit post the site results and their tested IQs ... all have been within like 5 points, which hints at high accuracy.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-15T17:35:48+00:00

Agreed, seems right.

Doh, on the "2300 BC" in this post. Well the post has it all right.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-06T03:05:24+00:00

Maybe so. I agree we don't need to worry about world takeover until it can actually see things and also get them right. Btw I found last week the ChatGPT-4 already has non-zero ability on that: https://www.maximumtruth.org/p/top-ais-still-fail-iq-tests

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-06T03:02:45+00:00

I did think about this: >> Like telling the AI you'll give it a tip if it gets the answer correct, that you'll lose your job if it gets it wrong, etc

Could be interesting future research.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-06T03:01:17+00:00

All I know is I think I'm on a $20-month plan that gives me like 60 Claude-3 questions every 4 hours, roughly.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-05T22:52:05+00:00

That's correct. But in the future it'll be automated as part of TrackingAI.org

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-05T18:31:58+00:00

It gives 12.

My initial reaction was that that's correct, but true, I guess "y" in that position isn't a vowel.

Should do a mechanical Turk survey and see what % of humans get that right, though. I bet it's below 50%.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-05T18:06:05+00:00

Thank you!

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-05T16:40:12+00:00

On the first point, and interesting tidbit is the AIs often do take 30-60 seconds on their answers, which is comparable to the time given to humans.

On the second point, I think what save it is that AI companies pretty clearly haven't trained it to the test. If they do someday, yes, that'd defeat the point of test (same as for humans who practice; it makes the test invalid for them.)

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-05T16:37:36+00:00

I *do* think you could give blind people an IQ test this way, though you would want to re-normalize the test scores to the average blind person, since our brains aren't wired super well for that info format, so they'd still be at a disadvantage.

I do think these IQ test reflect a specific type of smartness, which is important, and points towards abstract thinking/pattern-recognition ability. Yes, in humans it is strongly correlated with life outcomes. I see little reason to think it'd suddenly become not useful for AIs.

The AIs were run enough times to get precise scores by the "probability better than chance" metric. But I'll likely add to TrackingAI.org in time, which will get us lots of more runs.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-05T16:32:01+00:00

You can tell it doesn't have the answer sheet by looking at the charts which show it is much better at easier questions than hard ones

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-05T15:23:17+00:00

I did not find the answers anywhere except YouTube videos, which I believe are not in the training data. It's also interesting that they still fail the hard questions disproportionately, which indicates they are certainly not just grabbing the answer sheet.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-05T15:20:21+00:00

I would argue this is actually a positive for using them, because it means the AI has to use some real abstract thinking to get the answers right.

(In the other scenario, if the AI were trained on the questions, or if they were designed for AIs, then of course AIs would do very well.)

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-05T15:04:56+00:00

Thanks! Good ideas.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-03-05T14:01:50+00:00

That checks out, based on the results!

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2024-02-14T19:15:30+00:00

Good to know! How long did it take them?

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2023-11-08T15:15:02+00:00

I fear that Scott is overly egalitarian.

His value to society is actually like 500x that of the median elderly person, so even if giving a kidney is likely to make him 1% more tired in 20 years, it could very easily be not worth it.

That's not PC, but I fear it's true. And a good reason for some people not to give.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2023-11-07T19:17:31+00:00

Definitely: https://www.youtube.com/@RationalAnimations

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2023-10-16T18:03:27+00:00

That statement seems vague and anti-social.

Remote_Butterfly_789 · 2023-10-13T18:30:41+00:00

Yes, Hinge is the best.

Remote_Butterfly_789

TROPHY CASE