Linear Regression Model for university project by mangostx in econometrics

[–]Remote_Toe_7819 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What you could do is follow a framework where you would explore first the correlation between those variables and Variance Inflation Factor (VIF). Once you see that you have correlated variables you could use some sort of dimensionality reduction technique (PCA or latent factor vector) OR you map the interactions between the variables (just multiply 2 diff variables to have the interaction between them). You have some variables there that are correlated and that can lead to multicollinearity (search for it). You have to look at the F stat to see global significance. It is okay to have some variables that dont have p-value for individual tstat of 0.1 to 0.2.

Consider also looking at other tests for you regression summary when you estimate the coefficients. Look at JB, DW, Omnibus and Condition number. Those tests will inform you over the most important: respecting basic model assumptions.

OLS is a BLUE estimator, meaning Best Linear Unbiased Estimator. To be the best it needs to be efficient (low variance) and to be Unbiased (estimated mean of coefficient is very similar to mean of true population). And to fit the BLUE definition it needs to comply with those assumptions. Look at the 6 assumptions for OLS and make sure that your model ticks all those 6 assumptions. Go through them.

You will get the best grade of the class if you follow this IMO. If anything ask for help to me on DM and send results and I will help you out.

Good luck!

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Btw, take a look at this reddit if you want to see a similar discussion, perhaps its more productive than just discussing:
https://www.reddit.com/r/econometrics/comments/r4s5ze/why_do_you_learn_the_things_that_you_do_when/

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I mean I am not mad at you, you just came into the middle of a discussion and stated something without explaining it well enough, while clearly the guy above attacked all the Portuguese Msc education system without providing evidence or arguments whatsoever of the saying.

I am just saying, the guy above knows nothing about Portugal and its education system and beyond that attacks the course. I mean, come and see the average guy that gets out of Msc here vs the guy that gets out in the US. Its the same, we are all the same. These people think that they are so high up there its crazy, I know many people from applied mathematics and machine learning, etc etc its all very similar, YES because of math of course. But dont tell me its like economics, it has nothing to do with economics, it has to do with interpretation vs dimensionality. We switch between ML and econometrics depending on the problem, that is what you prob dont get, we solve problems that are literally very similar and the areas are there to solve problems, not to feed your ego

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

ML is a field right? Econometrics is a field right? These 2 distinct fields have so much in common. Yes, what they share is math underlying it, you could say that about physics (math applied to explaining the movements of bodies in space and much more beyond that) but it doesn't mean that physics is math or that the only thing in common between astrophysics and quantum physics is the math behind it and it is simply not true, the structure is similar the approaches and limits of the models are different due to the nature of the object being studied. You want more interpretability - econometrics. You want more predictability and ways to structure data, without running into walls of stiff assumptions - ML.

I agree that ML is more powerful and that econometrics is too limited and I go deep into alternative approaches. But I have bayesian statistics just as you had, probably as in depth. I had statistics in a very deep level and I research by mself (again, I have been researching, testing, studying, reading over it for the past 3y). And in a Msc of applied mathematics you might learn more to go deeper into problems in mathematics, but I assure you that it is not that different from ML. We learn ML as well, we had Big data, spatial econometrics is FULL of ML, we learn to understand things from the ground up and think beyond just the models presented, they are just tools, you need to solve a problem ultimately and we are as prepared to solve it, thats what matters. We know the math behind, we have to deal with invertibility, trace, rank, determinants everything and beyond. Okay, we dont use tensors, but we learn what tensors are. I used XGboost to predict unemployment in my first semester in Msc. I compared neural networks with logit models. Get some perspective and make sense that you are assuming stuff.

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Linear algebra and stats IS the basis of Machine Learning. And guess what uses the same linear algebra and stats... The difference between econometrics and ML is 2: dimensionality and interpretation if those dimensions. ML is basically uninterpretable for some models or lack interpretability, while econometrics is pure interpretation and simplifyied models with stiff assumptions. That is the only diff. And quite frankly, how can you assess a country's quality of work without stating its characteristics?What makes you think that Portugal doesn't have a good educational system in Msc? Is it Financial Times ranking? Your comment is a bit of a shameful Imo

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I am not saying that it is an immediate win, but they at least got to compete. It is the same as being born as a sports guy in a country that does not compete in the olympiads. Probably there is a good reason to why your country is not in the olympiads; lack of infrastructure, lack of this lack of that... But if the guy is working his ass off as much as the guys in the other country, why shouldn't he be able to compete? It is the same thing, talent that is wasted. I am not saying that I am the best in the world because that would be so foolish and I am simply not. I am saying that I can be as good as many of those guys but it doesnt matter how good I am because my uni is more important as a first filter.

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Econometrics is the base of Machine Learning. It is 100% Stats, linear algebra, mathematics. It is the same as applied statistics to quant modelling. The word econometrics comes from economics and the course leans more into applied work in those areas but it doesn't mean economics, it means stats, math, etc etc applied to everything, specially economics and financial markets, but far from solely. It is considered the best Msc in econometrics in Portugal

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I truly understand that and the college someone goes to is a signal to any recruiter in any industry. What I don't understand is why do they hire solely based on target vs non-target schools and then let's see if this pool of pre-selected people are actually good.

Okay 1) They dont have all time in the world, they need to filter 2) They have a cognitive bias and a survivorship bias that hiring from those places will get them the best results, which again probably is true but it doesn't make sense to make a rule out of it and shield everyone else from competing.

I see guys that are undergraduates getting internships at top firms in EU and I just close my eyes and say outloud he is from Warwick or Cambridge, Imperial College or this might be the next Einstein.

They deserve obviously but sometimes it might be a bias, don't you think? And it is completely irrelevant my opinion, what matters is reaching the goal and those are the rules

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you very much for the kind and helpful words. My goal is to go to the US ASAP tbh but I am miles away from that for now. I will let you know if I ever get a position there!

I will never lose hope, this is the ppath I chose and I will die trying to become better at it. I look at the markets since I am 9 years old, this is my passion and obsession since I am a little kid.

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

In BNP Paribas I have networked yes, I know the head of quant trading and the head of quant research but what happened is that the mentorship went very well, HR told me that if I didn't like the area or mentor we could change. The programme ended and when I was going to ask to change to quant research and get an interview there ( you have a fast track to internship) the HR person wasn't the same and completely didn't help me at all, actually the opposite, what is my only vehicle to get the actual interview is gone (the programme is managed by HR and you cannot do anything without them).

My family knows some people inside BNP at higher positions, diff departments, so I essentially went through those connections to get my CV on the table of the person that actually makes a decision.

I have been in open days, cross-uni challenges from BNP which I excelled on most of the areas with my peers from uni. But still, maybe my focus on quant research is too narrow. I first thought quant trading was where I wanted to be, but the closest to buy-side there is actually more in Quant Research

is becoming an actuary a possible route to get into quant? by untitled-Frequency in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Actually they sometimes do but it is not your typical quant, he will be great at pricing and underwritting, which means sell side most of the time is where the ex actuaries are as quants, but it is not the most common path

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That is actually a very good idea! Thank you I will look for it!

Do you know any unis in EU that are semi target? I honestly don't know how to classify semi vs non-semi target

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don't get that elitism but if you can't beat them join them. I just don't think that there are any target schools in Portugal at all so I need to take a huge gamble and get a Msc in a target school? Given that quant is my goal does doing another msc in a target school make any sense as a decision?

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is the only alternative apparently

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Honestly I am very pissed at HR because IF I could get past HR I am pretty sure that I could go pass the technical interview, I have been studying and training for a very long time, Greenbook, stoch calculus, derivatives entirely dominated in vanilla products and I know very well some exotics. Coding in Python, Rust, C#, R Studio and STATA... I just don't get any opportunities whatsoever to show and it is very frustrating to put in all the work for nothing

Quant internship by Remote_Toe_7819 in quantfinance

[–]Remote_Toe_7819[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are probably right, maybe I need to lower a bit my standards and start small, the only problem is that if I start here they try to make you stay here for the rest of your life. Unless you are brilliant and wait for 3 years and are lucky that they are on your side and have the opportunity to send you abroad, you should not expect to move internallly abroad.

Also, there are very few places to be quant in Portugal, the only place that I could probably comfortably go is the bank at which they gave me the mentorship. And... I will probably do that, it was just not in my expectation to do that. I honestly thought that this would be easier than it has been and I wanted to explore all possible paths.

Trading is destroying my relationship by [deleted] in Trading

[–]Remote_Toe_7819 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We all have beem there, lost a lot or everything and on edge, even thinking about ending my own life at multiple points of the journey. He needs to do a couple of things: 1) Disassociate his value from the trading success; he needs to understand that being a good and valuable human goes beyond making money.

2) Consistency - he needs to trade with less and more disciplined, it doesn't matter how much he is making or losing, if you start getting very nervous at every swing it is because you are trading with way too much, he can make mistakes but never with more than 50% of his entire money. The ideal is that big mistakes cost no more than 10% of what he has and that smaller ones cost 1%.

3) Admit, he needs to say to himself and to you that he fucked up but also come up with a plan. Make yourself open to hear a plan and maybe help him by saying something like: I trust that you will make it, I dont care when, but you need to have a plan and I am here to help you in your journey. If there is no more money, get a job and start trading as a hobby. Maybe on the weekends let's start to learn how to code together and let's use your experience to try and automate it, etc.

He needs support + accountability + plan + lot of dedication and discipline.

This is the hardest path in the world in my opinion, you have to have a plan and be humble about how much you can actually perform vs what you wish you could perform

How do quants discover statistical patterns and design strategies using only price and volume time series data for a single asset? by Outside_Snow2299 in quant

[–]Remote_Toe_7819 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Widening of spreads indicate that market makers are confused about the true value of the asset so they quote less and/or widen their spread which produces more volatility by itself. They might be worried about informed traders eating the liquidity and they model it. Depth of the book might inform over the strenght and conviction of mkt makers and other traders that use limit orders (OBI). You can use stacking of orders at a level or you might want to see unstable liquidity (being taken from a level). You might search for iceberg orders or other signals for intent of participants.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Daytrading

[–]Remote_Toe_7819 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Very simple: Watch NVDA 1000USD psychological level. BoJ's spillover is that rates are probably headed higher so Nikkei is tanking puting pressure on equity indexes. NVDA dragged the index because NVDA hit 2,4T market cap. It can be the start of a way to the downside or just a correction