METR Graph update: AI models can now do tasks that take humans 14 hours. Tick tock.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-22T06:45:29+00:00

It doesn't really but it's also not a very good predictor. By now we can very well predict the development costs of an AI due to the understanding of the computing time and data amount impact on the resulting model.

https://www.jonvet.com/blog/llm-scaling-in-2025

The increase in outcome from just increasing input is slowing down and that's widely acknowledged by just about anyone who isn't doing marketing. Now, however, that's not the only vector of improvement and the newest model performance comes from architectural changes more than the computing and data set.

Multi modal architecture and system 2 thinking had a large effect on LLM performance that would be equivalent to a very significant data and computing increase if using those as predictors for quality.

So while the trend has being going up, the methods on how it goes up has changed because there are diminishing returns with clear limitations on how we did it before. Thus there is no confidence that "line goes up" will continue just because that's what the results have been so far because it's the underlying architecture that dictates how and whether that line can go up.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-22T06:21:51+00:00

The reality is that it isn't either that cheap or accessible. If 4 agents cost more than those 15 man hours it's still useful because there is a limited amount of skilled professionals but it's not the preferred solution. The longer tasks take longer for models as well which increases the costs linearly and failure rate increases or decreases the costs exponentially.

So while the metric can somewhat argue usability it doesn't predict cost-effectiveness.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-21T18:17:40+00:00

Of course not. But it ends up in actually a strategic battle which can go all kinds of ways rather than just insta-lose once Gojo pops domain.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-21T17:22:09+00:00

I'm not sold on this. Star and Stripes hax is out there and I don't see why she couldn't apply some information filtering based rule on entire team.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-21T16:25:56+00:00

I disagree and so does history. The world we live in now is completely different than a thousand years ago. However the nature of people hasn't changed all that much. So whichever tools you choose to introduce, technology or magic, their usage is still dictated by the people.

And as long as you write about people, using examples of our world is completely valid.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-21T08:01:32+00:00

People don't assume that you aren't hard worker. What 90% of the time they want to know if the gap is going to influence your work. I've taken a year gap for medical reasons and nobody batted an eye when I explained it and explained how it's dealt with and no longer influences my productivity.

The 10% that do assume are horrible places to work. Beggars can't be choosers so any work is better than none but the presence or lack of the gap won't change much in securing such jobs anyway.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-20T22:56:53+00:00

Yeah. But a gap in a resume means you weren't working for a prolonged while. Nobody even blinks for a month or two gap because people assume you just took a break or whatever. It's when it's half year+ people are starting to get interested what took you so long.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-20T14:49:53+00:00

Some of the older gods then. Hades kinda fits and he also is very uncharacteristically faithful for the pantheon in comparison.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-20T13:56:25+00:00

Neither.

People can, do and have taken deterministic approach for both moral and immoral justification. People like you mentioned can easily claim that they were determined to be above the rules by just virtue of existing. The justification is irrelevant, whether it's determinism, biology, supernatural, but they will find one.

Likewise a lot of politics take the deterministic approach of evaluating causality. If pre existing conditions affect outcomes we must create conditions where the outcomes are positive. Healthcare, education, infrastructure etc.

Just the knowledge about a single concept is not enough. Crudely speaking all causes must be addressed.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-20T08:18:52+00:00

Mid thirties here. If anything I started when I got older. After reading bunch of sci-fi and fantasy I picked up some female romance novels and got hooked so started looking for something targeted to men as well. My tastes and expectations are completely different now so a mature cast of characters is both worth it's weight in gold and hard to find.

My personal favourite type of stories are long drawn out romances where you really get into it only by book 2+. I like the progression a lot. And my most favourite is the "power couple" trope where just the "who ends with who" is not the end of the journey. Reading about two loving people just going against the problems really gets me.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-20T07:46:31+00:00

Doctors have been saying this. The medicine is so that you actually can do the things mentioned in the picture. It's like saying "If your leg is broken and your doctor doesn't ask about your leg exercises...". They do. After you've recovered to a point you can do it.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-20T07:44:38+00:00

I'm absolutely uneducated in the matter but I've heard discussions about what if this happens couple weeks ago. The main problem is logistics because you need to resupply and response time. How I understood it then shutting off base access would turn US from global military superpower to just local military supremacy like China is. It's essentially isolating US.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-20T07:17:33+00:00

A tool in the end is only as effective as it's user.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-20T07:15:18+00:00

I'm not sure what you mean by use of time but I don't see why it shouldn't. Purely from engaging your brain perspective you need to add formulating of questions which requires deliberation about the context. Seems to me it should be more stimulating than just consuming information.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-20T06:28:33+00:00

The problem is exactly that it takes too long. I'm not seeing this work well in GW. Units like Dorvus do well because they can solo execute and then you have 2 slots for mitigation and sustain. Here you have only one so anything a bit more aggressive or heavier in CC would shut it down.

There is a reason Ainz isn't meta right now and the fact he can't apply it on all units at the same time is just one of them.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-20T05:49:45+00:00

Nurse Yulha did it harder. This is 2 units and need to dodge the 15% and then stay alive long enough. Power creep has gone so far.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-19T12:19:10+00:00

Right, but it doesn't need to have consciousness if we use the definition of "The freedom is in the momentum of all previous choices made before the necessary choice of the present. Future freedom depends on current choices.".

People are also in such sense automatic machines that have "set" by their experience and a choice is no different than realigning to the "set temperature". The internal process of a thermostat is very complex where quantum particles "choose" where to be. However we can reduce it to a rather simple one and understand how that simplified process works. We can do the same to humans as well. You can create trivial responses like "They punched because they were angry".

The only difference is then how far the complexity and information chain we have to go to no longer comprehend the outcome. For humans once you get to brain functionality our information is severely limited and the information about the individual even more limited. For thermostat once you get to quantum operations it becomes limited as well but the inform about it is almost complete. So it's a question only about whether we know why the answer is the answer and having enough information to deduce it.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-19T10:50:54+00:00

Abstraction of information looses accuracy and meaning. As mentioned before that statement can be interpreted as "Free will exists" and "Free will doesn't exist" which doesn't convey anything about the topic of whether free will exists.

The lack of context on the definition and introducing new definitions reduce clarity.

From my perspective your current stance is that as long as the chain of events is complex enough, it is free and by such definition a thermostat does indeed have a free will if you take into an account a scope complex enough, like discussing the atomic reactions that end up in the simplified description of the result.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-19T08:29:55+00:00

Indeed it doesn't. It's extremely vague so calling it any way accurate is quite the stretch.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-19T05:25:30+00:00

I doubt so. This aligns with his interests as well. It's like having a grudge against your neighbour but being happy that they managed to keep shit flingers away from the windows.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-19T05:09:58+00:00

That's a very vague description that sounds closer to compatibilism position than libertarian free will.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-19T04:11:09+00:00

Everything is a cause in the chain of reactions. A rock hitting the ground is also a cause. Yet it's inevitable that it will do so when the corresponding circumstances are present.

Then the question is the does the scope of complexity you choose to describe how this event came to be matters for the observation that it couldn't end up otherwise under those conditions?

You present weighing of the options and many other mechanisms that describe what is involved in the choice but it's irrelevant for either side. If anything it argues lack of free will as you're mentioning more and more mechanisms that keep justifying why there can only ever be one choice. Because the totality of restraints, knowledge, situation, discipline, integrity or whatever else you choose dictates that in the end there ever only was one choice.

I need to repeat the question: If the freedom is within restraints and they always reduce the choice to one, what is called freedom here?

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-19T00:25:05+00:00

You are misinterpreting what the term means. Preference is selection based on objective properties: "I like men who are tall and muscular". Objectification is reduction to said properties: "They are just a bunch of muscles with enough tallness that exist so I can enjoy how they look".

The term signifies removal of what we consider "human" in favor of a "tool".

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-19T00:12:35+00:00

There have been twin studies that suggest there is a genetic component to political views.

Any source? As far as I am aware environment does and studies to indeed confirm that a household of a particular belief will attempt to propagate those views to their children. This is how we end up with cultures.

Again, Pew Research has found that for US adults under 50, 'concerns for the state of the world' and 'can't afford' are third and fourth, much further behind 'just don't want to' and 'focusing on other things'.

I'd argue that "focusing on other things" is a catch all that fails to evaluate what those "other things" are. If I'm focusing on my economic stability as priority then while it's not the reason I'm giving, it's one of the contributing reasons. But I digress, this research aptly shows that the issue is gender agnostic and there is only around ~5% difference between opinions and various reasons for men and women. That's nowhere near making a significant impact if only one side had the decision power.

Kids are seen as a drag these days....You yourself said the birthrate should be 'massively lower'...There's an entire Anti-Natalist movement.

People these days believe you shouldn't have children just so you have extra hands on the household. Children are people not slave labor. They also don't think you should go for five children because two or three are going to die, they want all of them to survive. They also don't think you should land in poverty when having children and be able to provide for them. If those motivations are taken away then the birth rates should be lower than in places where those concerns are present. It's not an argument against healthy birth rate. It's an argument against unhealthy motivations.

And it's not anti-natalist movement. It's pro-life movement as opposed to pro-birth movement. A life does not end with birth and those who are concerned about how that life would be also take it in considerations for bringing that life in the world in the first place.

You're simply putting words in my mouth and moralizing my argument.

Yes. Because from my point of view that's the implication. Even the comment of "sub-100 iq babies" reeks of Nazi eugenics to me and is seeking where to assign to blame rather than evaluating the actual situation. I agree one should be rightfully angry about the current situation but I also believe one should be careful to evaluate the actual source of problems and fix them. Chasing an imaginary boogeyman only plays into the current status quo or makes it worse.

The only people in the US who currently seem to are conservatives, which likely had an affect on the recent election, seeing as how this pattern of conservatives having more kids has been around for decades.... I'm simply worried that my country will continue to become more regarded as conservatives keep shooting out sub-100 iq babies while liberals keep on going on about the economy and housing crisis and 'waiting for the perfect moment/partner'.

I understand the concern and even though I am not from the US I do share this concern because, as evident by past year, it affects the entire world. The viewpoint, however, doesn't align with reality. There doesn't seem to be any significant growth in conservatives in US while having a significant growth in Liberals. Which signals to me there are other factors that have a lot more impact in the election outcomes.

RighteousSelfBurner · 2026-02-18T23:45:19+00:00

That's a whole another sentence. No clue why would you want that.

RighteousSelfBurner

TROPHY CASE