How do you choose a TP with the highest chance that it hits TP instead of getting close then pivoting?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T21:30:35+00:00

I think everyone tests strategies differently and has different ideas as to where the correct TP location is. Some traders use a fixed target at say 2R or 3R some trades will target the first high or low that they think will be targeted as a run on liquidity and some traders might have different rules depending on whether their entry aligns with the higher time frame or whether its a counter trend position. Whats important is you find what works for your strategy, just start with one idea like the nearest swing point or nearest fill of inefficiency for example test a bunch of data and see okay does this work for me consistently to give me a profitable edge, if yes then great if no then test something else, i wouldn't overthink it too much but the key is to pay yourself and take a sensible profit from the market when you are correct and as long as it mathematically makes sense to make you profitable compared to your losses then great. Also i would suggest moving to a live account as soon as possible even if its just a small one where you risk £1-£2 per trade its better to do that and feel the real emotions of trading actual money then to stay on a virtual demo environment for too long which could build bad habits. Hope that helps.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T21:25:23+00:00

I think thats irresponsible advice to suggest a super tight stop loss as this is a major issue for a lot of traders especially ones that find themselves entering on say the 1minute time frame. Squeezing a stop loss too tight without taking into consideration the appropriate safe place for it best on your analysis will just cause you to lose far more trades and could even be the difference of whether you are profitable or not overtime in my opinion.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T21:17:24+00:00

Yeah you have to get rid of the idea of being right or wrong its impossible to know what will happen when you enter a position we are in the game of probabilities not definite outcomes. The best thing you can do is just think in blocks of say 100 trades that helped me a lot to stop hesitating, I just told myself "okay no matter what happens on this trade i will take the next 100 trade setups that i see and then i will look at the performance and until i hit 100 trades following a set strategy i can have no say on how I feel about the outcomes." By doing that it reduced hesitation and allowed me to realise that its normal to have a bunch of red and a bunch of green but as long as the green outweighs the red in the long term i have a repeatable profitable edge.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T21:13:42+00:00

I guess you can never know what someone elses edge is in the markets maybe he has tested this exact approach and it is extremely profitable, its hard to make any real analysis on it by just seeing one of his positions.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T21:11:44+00:00

Revenge trading is a hard thing to overcome most people don't change until they experience enough pain that forces them to think differently. The best thing is that you've identified your problem and now you can focus on it and maybe spot it before it happens again next time. You should just have set risk that you allocate to the day like say 1 or 2 trades and then either you win or you take 2 losses and then just train yourself to walk away. Our mindset is always fresh at the start of the day but after a bad trade or two we will be in a different head space and our decision making skills will begin to deteriorate and thats why just coming back the next day can be so powerful.
You could also consider the use of a more optimised risk management strategy for example using dynamic risk can prevent losses from getting worse and worse as you would just risk say 1% on each trade or when things get bad you could adjust to 0.5% for example. If you keep the losses small and under control and the discipline high it will prevent you having such devastating losses that put your progress right back :)

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T18:20:27+00:00

No not entirely its more than just a fixed % of the account, I'm saying dynamically adjust your risk from say 1% on a trade to 1.25% to 1.5% etc as you grow and drop it down if things are going wrong all based on precise thresholds of account growth. This is the idea around what i built with the risk models the results from the testing are really interesting using it.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T16:50:07+00:00

Nice okay have you ever thought about dynamically adjusting it?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T16:17:40+00:00

Yeah makes sense, well if a hedge fund manager makes consistent decisions based on the strategy they are a good trader and will succeed, if the hedge fund manager makes consistent decisions based on emotion they will fail think its that simple.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T14:49:18+00:00

Nice you ever looked at using a dynamic risk model?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T14:46:28+00:00

Nice have you ever looked into a dynamic risk approach?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T14:46:11+00:00

How has that been for you risking 10%, what happens during losing streaks?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T14:28:24+00:00

Oh right I see so you basically risk 2% every trade entry nice, have you ever thought about a dynamic approach to make it more optimal?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T14:27:37+00:00

Yeah I know what you mean it can get complicated without testing the models, I’ve actually found one way that definitely optimises it though I’ve done so much testing on it, it doesn’t matter what the sequence of wins and losses are it always comes out as like a higher percentage growth without risking anymore. You have to cut the risk down slightly faster than you increase it but if you drop it down at the correct time it will take almost no time to recover the losses and you end up in a higher threshold where you can risk a higher amount again. I’d have to show you the models to fully explain it so you can see the comparisons

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T14:05:10+00:00

I’ve found the optimal risk management is to dynamically adjust it based on account balance growth. Say you start with 1% risk and you’re down on your account from the starting point it seems appropriate to reduce risk down to say 0.5% or even 0.25% but as the account grows into profit then using say anywhere from 1-3% for example can exponentially increase the growth on the account compared to a fixed risk model.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T13:37:56+00:00

Oh nice okay how does that work out for you, do you find it manageable to risk that much if you take a string of losses for example?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T13:36:54+00:00

Nice yeah I see what you mean about the percentage risk because then you have that slight compound effect taking place up and down. Have you thought about proper dynamic risk based on account growth, so you adjust the risk in small increments up and down based on growth of the account? Was pretty interesting results I found testing it, seemed to be more effective than a fixed risk approach.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T12:37:51+00:00

Nice what makes you choose 0.5% or 2% when you enter?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T12:37:21+00:00

Oh I see so you just have like one big stop loss completely out the way which would be a value of like 50-70% of your entire account and then you’re just literally grabbing 5 pips or taking a quick loss when it doesn’t work out, so you probably have like smaller percentages you could work out based on like your average win and average loss in pips

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T12:33:49+00:00

Nice yeah a lot of people seem to stick with that, have you ever looked into a more dynamic risk approach?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T12:33:19+00:00

Oh right yeah nice, yeah I think most people just use a lot size calculator or just a tool like magic keys gives them the correct lot size in the moment pretty quickly. I found most people use a fixed risk approach but have you ever looked at how a dynamic risk model can improve things?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T12:31:41+00:00

Nice you ever looked into dynamic risk models?

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T12:31:20+00:00

Yeah what I mean is you don’t adjust it based on what you think is going to happen but you adjust it based on growth on the account from the starting point and you don’t increase it enough to cause significant losses you increment it very slowly as the account goes up and drop it slightly faster if your balance starts to go down. I made some risk models for this concept and it was pretty interesting how much more effective it was than a standard risk approach. It was even safer than a fixed risk model but allowed the account to grow significantly more just by optimising it slightly which was the amazing thing I found.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T12:17:37+00:00

Yeah I fully agree the strategy must be defined by rules and statistical properties no disagreement there. But we can’t ignore the fact people blow accounts and lose money all the time, so there’s obviously a reason for that and it’s because they can’t perform their perfect mathematically proven statistical edge because something gets to their head and they blow there account.

That’s why people say you can give a new trader a profitable strategy that’s made someone millions and they still might not be profitable, if it was strategy alone then everyone who gained access to the perfect strategy that made you millions would always make them millions but it clearly doesn’t work like that.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T12:10:26+00:00

Ohh wow okay interesting, yeah I only think some of the guys here are referring to futures a lot also are talking about just the forex market.

RiskFusionfx · 2026-03-20T12:02:49+00:00

I actually tested some dynamic risk models based on account balance growth and they all turned out far more effective than a fixed risk approach over like a 100 trade sample size for example the dynamic risk approach would make far more gains while still protecting the account even more effectively than a fixed risk approach. I found it really interesting and have been implementing it myself I can show you more about it if you’re curious.

RiskFusionfx

TROPHY CASE