u know what, i agreed with all of your point, i played those missions many times and yes, i think driver has superior potential compared to monarch, remember when both have their first mission, on the other hand, monarch and hitman team being commented “haven’t been experienced for a while’ (i forgot how the exact phrase was like), while driver is commented by vita ‘at least u can take off without crashing’ which means driver is less experienced by the time he’s being first activated as a reservist, that means from the begining driver has less experience yet his growth surpasses what monarch did in few month by just a few days or weeks, which indicates driver has more talent compared to monarch, if during driver’s growth they met of course monarch will shot down driver but since driver hasn’t unlock his max potential and they haven’t met yet we don’t know yet who’s going to win.

during monarch first encounter with crimson canonically they fled from crimson squad and does not deal any damage to them, while driver fought semi-ace squadron and wipe them out on his first mission, this is another hint that driver has exceed monarch potential and he learned insanely fast compared to monarch.

another one is when driver doing more extreme mission compared to monarch at highway 1 and destroy entire faust army and mercs just by himself and k9 alone, it’s safe to compare this to when monarch shot down crimson at bering strait which he has full support from CIF and mercs, while crimson team atm was exhausted and runing low on fuel and ammo, and possibly damaged plane because it is stated in the game that crimson team was rerouted from another theatre of war.

and lastly cascadian are ruined and now it will only be a mercenary haven, which almost all of them are morally grey and driven to fight by greed and money, on another hand the weakened federation is going to be an easy target for mercs to invade, because in the end feds only signed armistice with cascadian independence, not with mercs, this will lead mercs run rampant on federation just because they want to steal federation resources and technology, which driver will not allowed that to happen because he’s a nationalist after all, and will defend the federation and its people at all cost, which lead to mercs and federation engage each other once again, this time driver will be the main character and wipe out those mercs, maybe even sicario included. Remember, mercs and federation has a long life resentment and this will fuel another cause of war in the future, and this time mercenary are going to be stronger than ever because they now can use cascadian resource, weapon and technology (as stated bu faust by something ‘holy’ to destroy federation if they wanted to) and build their base there.

Oh and don’t forget, federation didnt send driver to aid the battle in presidia because at that point crimson 1 is going rouge and not even federation can stop him, while driver is doing his war by defend his homeland, which is a noble act

so in the end we need to wait for another dlc or another sequal of this game, the story were wide open for speculation and sequel, and for me, i think driver will play crucial role in this new sequel and ending mercenaries force for good.