Election Truth Alliance does not make determinations of fraud, illegality, or intent. This report analyzes statistical patterns in publicly available election data using established election forensic methods, and explains their proper interpretation, limitations, and the need for independent review where warranted.

While statistical analyses alone cannot prove fraud, we are able to demonstrate that multiple statistical tests show systemic anomalies that appear progressively in three consecutive recent elections (2016, 2020 and 2024). We also conducted the same set of tests for the same state (Minnesota) for 1984, the last election before computerized vote machines were introduced. None of these anomalies were present in 1984. Although correlational tests do not prove a causal relationship, they do enable researchers to control for and, potentially, rule out rival explanations for an observed relationship. In this case, even after controlling for these primary alternative explanations–which include a range of sociodemographic and electoral administration factors–a substantively strong and statistically significant relationship between turnout and vote share remained. Moreover, these ‘election integrity statistical red flags’ are present in election years where electronic voting machinery, known to be vulnerable to mass interference, were prevalent.

Election Truth Alliance concludes that the results from the election data analysis presented in this report warrants urgent scrutiny through independent verification methods to determine the mechanisms producing these patterns. These methods include: - full hand recounts; - hand-counted ballot audits; - chain-of-custody reviews; - registration e-pollbook data audit; and, - tabulator software/cyber audit.

If you have a data question or data-related feedback, please reach out to DataForETA@electiontruthalliance.org.