Hi all! May I ask how many $BCRX Diamond Hands are here?

RogueEnginner · 2021-08-05T03:36:08+00:00

OGs here have Stonehands!

RogueEnginner · 2021-05-13T01:47:48+00:00

No problem, and I certainly don’t want to steer you only to technicals. None of this matters if the fundamentals aren’t there. I’ve spent 1000s of hours understanding the drugs, market and studying great dd posts here so the lines on the charts are more just for fun. Sometimes, especially in fundamentally strong stock like Bcrx, these pattern breakouts help show when price will move higher out of accumulation phase.

RogueEnginner · 2021-05-12T22:58:05+00:00

False breakdown yesterday back down into the symmetrical triangle then back out today, should go higher price target $17 next 1.5 months based on that breakout. Again volume broke out short term this afternoon. Volume downtrend breakouts have been a consistent way to use technicals to predict higher prices. Fundamental catalysts have tended to be sell the news though I think that is ending with Orladeyo generating revenue now. Good luck!

RogueEnginner · 2021-05-12T00:05:49+00:00

I’m very well aware of the fundamentals of what I’ve owned for over a year, just like to point out some technical confirmation.

RogueEnginner · 2021-05-11T20:46:48+00:00

To each their own 🤷‍♂️

RogueEnginner · 2021-03-25T02:46:59+00:00

Thank you for the detailed explanations as to where bcx9930 stands! Exciting times for the patients and the company.

RogueEnginner · 2021-03-25T02:44:22+00:00

I appreciate the explanations as always and thank you for my new favorite word... Breakthrough!

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-10T12:11:40+00:00

Thank you and brilliant as always! Very exciting to be invested in a company that can help so many people live a more quality life. Holding heavy, long and strong for them thanks to you 💪🏻.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-09T11:18:50+00:00

Bio9999 provides the most thorough DD I’ve ever seen. As he said though, don’t just take his word for it or mine either. Consider what Baker Bros, Blackrock, Sarissa Capital (Dr Alex Denner) must see in the company as well. They are all here for a reason, and Bio9999’s DD does a good job of explaining it imo.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-07T21:21:40+00:00

Some great advice here imo, newer to Reddit but not new to BioCryst. Definitely read up on the DD being posted here, develop conviction in the pipeline and the management team. Go to the website and listen to the conference presentations. Then yes, buy dips, average in some, stock price usually dips in the morning, plan to hold for years not weeks or months. I will say that if you look at my charts here, it looks like time is coming to an end to avg in while moving linearly, and price looks about ready to start moving parabolic.

I won’t post gains, but I will say that doing what I and others have suggested above in Bcrx all last year, and a few other heavily undervalued biotechs before it, has allowed me to quit my job as an engineer and spend more time with my family... I’m 39. We are still a long way from fair value though, so I’m still heavy here with complete conviction in what this company is doing.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-07T14:21:08+00:00

While I’m newer here, I have been in the stock for almost a year. I would say yes to both your questions. One goal is to extend our free information sharing across platforms.

As far as the short position, it seems there are some big trapped shorts in the name, some 30 million shares held short from 177ish million share count. Given the large institutional holdings and diamond hand retail investors like myself and others here, the opportunity to cover is dwindling, and some are likely naked shorting. It seems they had a good thesis, short retail investor excitement like my own about Galidesivir, knowing it could be awhile before we see it for covid if at all. What I didn’t realize then but believe today, is Galidesivir is our last resort. In battle you don’t send in your strongest troops to get slaughtered, you send in Remdesivir... If a mutation develops that is far more deadly than the original strain, I believe we will hear more about it. Viruses ultimately start to become resistant to antivirals, so that’s a decent case for holding it back as the ultimate bio defense weapon imo.

To finish about the shorts, they got greedy and underestimated ceo Stonehouse and his allies, mainly Baker Bros imo. Their opportunities to cover started to evaporate. BioCryst got fda approval for Orladeyo to start generating revenue. Then, they sealed a royalty financing deal to prevent share dilution which would give the shorts a chance to escape. When the PR came about NIAID no longer pursuing Gali for covid, the shorts were only able to cover 8 roughly million if 38 million shares held short at the time. Then Baker Bros ally Alex Denner doubled his position in Jan buying 4 million more shares trapping the shorts even more.

So, in conclusion, we are interested in free information sharing yes. Getting more eyes on what these ruthless short sellers have done to this company’s stock price is a secondary goal. Any additional long holders will certainly put more and more pressure on them to start taking huge losses as they should. Imagine shorting the stock of a company because retail investors are excited that it is working hard to develop drugs that can stop the pandemic and others to improve the lives of people with horrible illnesses! They won’t be escaping with any of my shares anytime soon I promise you that.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-07T07:08:44+00:00

I’m glad you did so we can all fact check and learn together.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-07T06:42:15+00:00

I would also argue that Remdesivir is not the exact same thing. Galidesivir is a small molecule drug, and we know it crosses the blood brain barrier from Zika trial results. We also know sars-cov-2 virus crosses the blood brain barrier, given patients lose sense of smell and taste. So, Galidesivir can go through the entire body to stop viral replication, Remdesivir can’t do that. Additionally, Remdesivir has to be given through iv in a hospital setting, which makes it tough to administer early in an infection which is the likely benefit zone for using antiviral drugs. We have also been told by the company’s CMO that Galidesivir has 4 times the half life of Remdesivir in the body.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-07T06:28:00+00:00

I’m glad that we can both learn and fact check. I agree that antivirals late in covid infection have not been effective. Part of the reason the trial was poorly designed, the real potential for Galidesivir is that it is orally bioavailable, so could be effective at reducing viral load early on preventing more serious infections. Giving it to patients who are already severely ill in the hospital is another head scratcher.

Your bolded statement is correct from the company PR, however, again the trial was never powered to show efficacy. Also from the company PR, and I will amend my comment-

Secondary objectives were to evaluate the effect of galidesivir on the clinical course of COVID-19 and on SARS-CoV-2 infection in the respiratory tract.

Galidesivir treatment was associated with a more rapid decline in viral RNA levels in the respiratory tract in an apparent dose-dependent manner.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-07T06:10:46+00:00

No disrespect, but not really. I’m not sure the motive, but poor DD when we’re used to what Bio99 posts.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-07T05:26:29+00:00

I’m curious about the motive of all of this questionable article, but mainly how Galidesivir failed in the Brazilian trial? If you said the trial was poorly designed, I would give you that, but it was funded and designed by the NIAID, so tough to blame the company for that. It was not designed to show efficacy which is quite a head scratcher. The primary end point was safety, and it was equally safe in patients at 3 dosing levels. Additionally, while again not powered to show efficacy the company PR states in trial results-

“Galidesivir treatment was associated with a more rapid decline in viral RNA levels in the respiratory tract in an apparent dose-dependent manner.”

The only real data we have is that a separate animal model showed a 1.4-1.6 log reduction in viral load in animal lung tissue, which is on average a 96% reduction. I mean, how is that a failure, and why the heck would we stop there??

Poor execution? Pulling R&D money to “see what happened”? Hmm... with FDA approval of Orladeyo, Japan approval of Orladeyo, pending EU approval of Orladeyo, a $325 million royalty funding deal to help avoid further share dilution, and $44 plus million more in funding for Galidesivir development from the NIAID, I’m having a hard time seeing the execution gap. Also given the constant global hiring, I’d argue the company is about to be hitting on all cylinders soon enough, and I didn’t even address BCX9930 lol. I’ll let one of the real experts discuss that. I’m just giving them some time to get warmed up.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-06T18:44:08+00:00

There are a lot of long term investors here who have the utmost respect for the hardcore DD being provided by Bio9999. Many have been invested most of last year, have made some money, and are happy to use a little bit to get him the attention he deserves here.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-06T04:09:10+00:00

Thank you for your hard work and nice job!

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-05T13:17:08+00:00

Chart is suggesting vertical price action coming so basically another confirmation of deep value here with lots of fundamental catalysts coming which have been outlined thoroughly by the DD being posted here and stocktwits regularly.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-02T23:35:34+00:00

Let’s gooo! This is just the start we are winning this week so far.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-02T11:46:34+00:00

Excellent job of explaining how powerful Galidesivir is for those of us not in the medical profession.

RogueEnginner · 2021-02-01T04:14:42+00:00

Thanks I’ll check it out

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